On June 6, 2025, college sports officially entered a new era.
With the House v. NCAA settlement finalized, the longstanding model of amateurism is effectively dead. What replaces it is a framework that will allow schools to directly pay athletes, split revenue with them annually, and compensate former players with $2.8 billion in backpay for lost NIL opportunities. It’s a landmark shift with ripple effects for every program—and yes, that includes Kentucky.
Here’s a breakdown of the biggest winners and losers under the new model, how it could shape the future of college sports, and where the Wildcats stand in the middle of it all.
🏆 Biggest winners
Current & former athletes (especially in revenue-generating sports)
Why They Win: Division I schools can now share up to $20.5 million annually with athletes beginning in 2025–26. Backpay will be distributed to players who competed since 2016, with Power Five football and men’s basketball athletes averaging ~$135,000, and women’s basketball players around $35,000.
Kentucky Angle: With its blue-blood basketball brand and SEC football revenues, Kentucky is in a prime spot to reward athletes. Expect the Wildcats to allocate around $4–5 million to men’s basketball, making UK even more competitive on the recruiting trail.
Why It Matters: Players now get a cut of the billions their labor generates—a long overdue shift that inches college sports closer to a professional model.
Power 4 conferences & basketball-centric schools
Why They Win: The settlement keeps the NCAA Tournament intact (for now) and locks the Power Four into a shared system for the next decade. Schools like Gonzaga or Big East powers can funnel most of their revenue-sharing pool into basketball.
Kentucky Angle: Unlike many SEC peers dominated by football, UK’s basketball tradition gives it room to spend big on hoops without sacrificing football’s cut. That balance could become a powerful recruiting tool.
Why It Matters: The rich get richer, and schools with deep basketball roots can double down while the rest scramble to keep up.
Legal teams & antitrust lawyers
Why They Win: The attorneys who brought the House case will collect $484 million in fees, and future lawsuits (especially around Title IX and employment status) guarantee continued work and influence. Law firms are shaping the future of college sports, often more than the conferences or the NCAA itself.
Judge Claudia Wilken
Why She Wins: Wilken has now authored the three most important rulings in modern college athletics (O’Bannon, Alston, and House). She has effectively rewritten the NCAA’s rulebook from the bench.
Ed O’Bannon
Why He Wins: O’Bannon’s 2009 case over video game likenesses sparked the NIL movement that led to this settlement. His role as a trailblazer is now locked into sports history.
🚫 Biggest losers
Non-revenue (Olympic) sports
Why They Lose: Most of the $20.5M cap will go to football and men’s basketball. That puts pressure on other programs—swimming, track, gymnastics—which could face budget cuts or elimination.
Kentucky Angle: UK’s broad athletic budget may buffer the blow, but sports like swimming or track and field could feel the budget tightening.
Why It Matters: Title IX and non-revenue sports could become battlegrounds in this new era of financial prioritization.
The NCAA
Why It Loses: The NCAA must pay $1.1 billion of the settlement and give up its power to enforce NIL rules, now handed to a new entity—the College Sports Commission. It’s a serious blow to its relevance and finances.
Kentucky Angle: Kentucky may feel this shift through increased SEC autonomy and less centralized NCAA control, especially in enforcement.
Why It Matters: We’re watching the slow movement away from the NCAA as we’ve known it.
Fans & local communities
Why They Lose: Rising costs are likely coming—tickets, donations, seat licenses. Plus, local businesses may be leaned on for NIL funding, placing financial stress outside the athletic department.
Kentucky Angle: Passionate Wildcat fans could face higher costs at Rupp Arena or in football suites. Lexington-area businesses may be asked to do more to keep Kentucky competitive.
Why It Matters: If the price of fandom rises too high, programs risk alienating long-time supporters.
Athletic department admins & mid-level staff
Why They Lose: As money shifts toward players, administrative staff positions could be downsized or eliminated—especially in non-revenue areas or facilities.
Kentucky Angle: Kentucky’s deep budget may help preserve jobs, but streamlining could still affect support staff or long-term facility upgrades.
Why It Matters: Operational efficiency will be tested as programs try to stretch every dollar.
Smaller division I programs (Non-power four)
Why They Lose: These schools must pay 36% of the $2.8B settlement while Power Four schools pay just 24%, despite having fewer resources. Many may opt out of revenue sharing, widening the gap even more.
Kentucky Angle: This deepens UK’s edge over in-state schools like Western Kentucky or Eastern Kentucky, who may struggle to keep pace.
Why It Matters: A wider chasm between the haves and have-nots could turn Division I into two very different worlds.
🔍 Kentucky’s balanced reality
Kentucky is positioned to thrive in this new system—especially in basketball, where the school can allocate $4–5 million in direct athlete compensation. Its tradition, fanbase, and SEC backing give it power in both football and basketball markets.
But non-revenue sports like track or swimming are vulnerable. Even with a healthy budget, Title IX constraints, athlete employment debates, and NIL enforcement inconsistencies could create strain. And for fans, the cost of supporting the Cats may be about to go up.
⚖️ What comes next?
- Title IX Lawsuits: Disparities in revenue distribution could trigger legal battles over gender equity—Kentucky women’s basketball or gymnastics could be pulled into that fight.
- Johnson v. NCAA: This lawsuit may define athletes as employees. If that happens, schools like UK may need to offer salaries, benefits, or union protections.
- NIL Enforcement: The new College Sports Commission and Deloitte’s NIL Go tool will monitor large NIL deals. But if enforcement is inconsistent, recruiting advantages could swing wildly.
✅ Final word
The House v. NCAA settlement represents a massive win for athletes—and a huge opportunity for programs like Kentucky basketball to dominate this new era. But the cost isn’t just measured in dollars. For non-revenue sports, fans, and small schools, this is the start of an uncertain future.
Kentucky has the tools to win. But everyone—especially those not wearing a jersey—will have to weigh what that means to college sports.