If you have ever screamed at your television because John Calipari refused to play his most effective lineup, you might want to reach out to an Arkansas fan today. They are currently living through your favorite horror movie; you can gloat or be nice, that's up to you.
A new stat making the rounds this week highlights a trend that will feel eerily familiar to the Big Blue Nation. It involves a "super lineup" that crushes opponents, and a head coach who seemingly refuses to use it.
Does that sound familiar? Back in the 2023 season, CBS Sports had this to say:
"When Sheppard is on the floor, Kentucky's scoring margin is 130.49 to 104.9 in favor of the Wildcats on a per-100 possession basis, vs. 112.92 to 124.79 when he is off the floor in favor of the opponent on a per-100 possession basis. Kentucky is still winning with Dillingham off the floor but is similarly throttling teams when he is on the floor, outpacing teams 127.99 to 109.87 in minutes he plays."
According to the analytics, Arkansas has a clear best lineup in power conference play this season:
Darius Acuff, Meleek Thomas, Karter Knox, Trevon Brazile, Malique Ewin.
When this group is on the floor, they are a buzzsaw. In 81 possessions, they have a net rating of +33. They defend, they score, and they overwhelm teams. By every metric, this is the group that should be closing games and playing heavy minutes. But it's not.
The Kentucky game anomaly
So, how much did Calipari use this nuclear weapon against Kentucky on Saturday?
Six possessions.
That’s it.
In those six possessions, that lineup outscored us 11-6. They worked perfectly.
And then? Calipari broke them up. He went back to rotations that were struggling to score and struggling to stop Mark Pope's offense.
A familiar headache
For Kentucky fans, this is the ultimate "I told you so" moment. For 15 years, we watched lineups that worked get shelved for lineups that Calipari wanted to work. We saw shooters sit on the bench while non-shooters clogged the lane. We saw hot hands get cooled off by inexplicable substitutions.
Now, it is happening in Fayetteville, thankfully.
Arkansas fans are scratching their heads, wondering why the analytics don't match the rotation. Meanwhile, Kentucky fans can just sit back, sip their tea, and appreciate a coach in Mark Pope who tends to ride the hot hand rather than fight it.
It’s not our problem anymore, folks. But man, does it look familiar. It's your problem now, Hogs.