Mark Stoops is in for another long year if the computer models are right
Preseason projections are starting to feel like a broken record for Kentucky football.
In the latest round of SEC predictions from PEAR, an algorithm-driven projection model focused on win probabilities across the league, the Wildcats find themselves ranked 15th out of 16 teams. Only Mississippi State is projected to do worse.
The model gives Kentucky a 0% chance of winning seven or more SEC games, less than 1% to reach six, and just a 4% chance to notch five. The most likely outcomes?
- 15% chance to win 4
- 38% chance to win 3
- 66% chance to win 2
- 92% chance to win just 1 conference game
Let that sink in.
For a program led by the SEC’s most tenured head coach (Mark Stoops) and the nation’s longest-serving athletic director (Mitch Barnhart), those numbers are nothing short of brutal.
While the top of the conference features usual suspects like Alabama, Georgia, and LSU, and some fresh risers in Texas A&M and Florida, Kentucky finds itself buried—again. The addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the league only makes the climb out of the basement more difficult.
The PEAR model projects Alabama as the favorite, but notes that the top five teams are separated by just half a win, creating a razor-thin margin at the top. Meanwhile, Kentucky isn’t even within sniffing distance of bowl eligibility.
This comes on the heels of a 4–8 season in 2024, one that included embarrassing losses to South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida, and Louisville. The offensive line struggled. The defense collapsed late. And fan patience wore thin. Even the coaches were fed up by season's ends.
So what now?
Stoops has publicly said he’s happy with the team’s offseason development. The staff believes the offensive line is bigger and more physical, and that the secondary could be among the most improved units in the league. But until the results show up on Saturdays, the computers—and the critics—will keep doubting.
The question looms:
Can Mark Stoops still outcoach expectations, or is Kentucky just waiting out a massive buyout?
The opener against Toledo on August 30 won’t answer everything. But with a schedule that includes Texas, Georgia, and Florida, the margin for error is slim.
Kentucky’s been in this spot before—and proved people wrong. But this season? They’ll have to claw their way out of the algorithm’s basement, one ugly win at a time.