Analytics guru predicts Kentucky will be splashing big money on John Blackwell

With the way NIL works, a lot of college athletes will make really good money if they can produce at a high level. Look at Jayden Quaintance, who reportedly earned north of $2 million. But Eric Haslam of Haslametrics believes Kentucky basketball will spend double that on Wisconsin guard John Blackwell.

Blackwell announced his decision to enter the NBA Draft process while also entering the Transfer Portal, which is going to draw nearly every school's attention. The 6'4 wing averaged 19 points and 5 rebounds on a night on 38.9 percent from deep. That kind of offensive production is exactly what Kentucky needs. But do they need it so bad that they are willing to spend $4 million?

Kentucky basketball has to be more prudent with NIL funds

Last season, Kentucky took a mercenary approach. They found who they thought were the best guys they could get and threw money at them; the team reportedly cost over $20 million. After the Cats were humbled by Iowa State, Goose Givens got on the radio and proclaimed he knew that kind of money was not going to be there for this offseason push.

That matters because the Cats will have to replace a lot of guys. Right now, 4 players are in the Transfer Portal (Jaland Lowe, Mo Dioubate, Brandon Garrison, and Jasper Johnson), and the two leading scorers are graduating (Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen). Add in Jayden Quaintance, and you are already at nearly half the team.

Kentucky did score a nice pickup with 4-star point guard Mason Williams, but can they really afford to spend such a huge chunk of their limited money on one player?

I don't think so. I think this is a roster that does need a star; there is no doubting that. But I think you can find a better fit than a guy who shot it at 42% from the floor. If you are going to spend $4 million, the player needs to be someone who does more than just score the ball.

Now, I also would love to see Blackwell in Lexington. He is exactly the kind of player that Mark Pope has done well with in the past, looking at a guy like Otega Oweh or Jaxson Robinson. The proof is there that he can deliver with a good scoring wing.

And if Blackwell was the missing piece, I think throwing the money at him would be ideal. But the truth is that he isn't. Kentucky needs a lot more than just one player. And just like Acaden Lewis, the recruitment process could be a long one. If he stays in the NBA Draft process all the way to the end, you are tying up a huge part of your NIL in a guy who may not be there.

After a risky gamble on Jayden Quaintance that backfired, can the Cats afford to do it again?