Kentucky Basketball: 3 reasons why the Wildcats will win the SEC and 3 reasons they won’t
By Josh Yourish
Why Kentucky won’t win the SEC
Kentucky has consistently pumped the most talent into the NBA of any team in the SEC. Yet, Calipari has only won the SEC regular season title once in the past six seasons. He’s also won the tournament once over that stretch.
There are plenty of reasons for those shortcomings and the early-round exits in the NCAA tournament. We’ve already seen a few of those recurring themes rear their ugly head this year, playing down to competition against UNCW, and failing to close out a big lead against Kansas. The biggest culprit is young guards.
1. Young guards
Wagner, Sheppard, and Dillingham are my No. 1 reason why this team can win the SEC, but they’re also the No. 1 reason why it might not. College basketball is always about guards and many times it comes down to late-game decision-making. We saw that when Kentucky played Kansas in the Champions Classic.
UK led nearly all game and was up 81-75 with 3:36 remaining and 83-78 with 3:00 minutes left, but still lost the game. On two of Kentucky’s last possessions, Dillingham forced a pull-up mid-range jumper from the baseline that went off the side of the backboard, and down 87-84, Reed Sheppard forced a three off a hand-off that was blocked.
Both of those guys were excellent in that game, Dillingham had 18 points, and Sheppard finished with 13, but late in a pressure situation, they let their inexperience shine through. Calipari’s team will go as far as his freshman guards take it, I’m just not certain that will be to an SEC title.
2. On-ball defense
Kentucky has done a great job forcing turnovers this year, but just staying in front of a ball-handler has been a different story. In Kenpom adjusted defense, UK ranks 53rd, which isn’t bad, but may not be championship caliber.
The Wildcats are allowing 72.4 points per game, but that is primarily related to their pace of play because they’re scoring 90.6 points a game. They just aren’t able to slow down good guards. Dajuan Harris put up 23 points and seven assists for Kansas, Wooga Poplar scored 19 points on 13 shots for Miami, Erik Reynolds II of St. Joe’s dropped 28 with five assists, and Trazarien White, a 6-foot-7 forward for UNCW led the Seahawks to a win with 27 points. UNCW’s point guard Donovan Newby scored 15 points on just eight shots.
Somebody needs to step up as the on-ball stopper defensively, whether that’s one of the freshmen guards, Antonio Reeves, or a bigger wing like Justin Edwards or Adou Thiero. Until that happens, Kentucky will struggle against players like Dalton Knecht of Tennessee and Alabama’s Mark Sears.
3. Free-throw shooting
This isn’t about how well Kentucky is shooting free throws, it’s about how often the Wildcats are getting to the line. Kentucky has aggressive slashers in Dillingham and Wagner, but the team is 236th in the country in free-throw attempts per game at 17.9. That’s while averaging the 31st most possessions.
The Cats are shooting 72.7% from the line which ranks 118th, but it’s about finding ways to get more trips to the line. Bradshaw will help some because he’ll draw fouls on putbacks and dunks around the rim, but if Kentucky can’t get opposing star players into foul trouble, then they’ll need to contain players like Dalton Knecht, Mark Sears, or even Johni Broome from Auburn for the full 40 minutes.
Keep an eye on this in Kentucky’s matchup against Armando Bacot and UNC on Saturday. If Bacot gets into foul trouble, especially if it’s on intentional drives from Wagner or Dillingham then that’s a great sign for the Cal’s team going forward.
