Kentucky Basketball vs. Miami (FL): Game preview and prediction

Kentucky basketball takes on their second top-10 opponent in the month of November, this time in front of their home crowd at Rupp Arena.

Miami (FL) strolls into Lexington, boasting an undefeated record of 5-0, and well-rested after a nine-day layoff. The Wildcats are fresh off of a record-scoring performance against Marshall. The 69-point first-half output was the highest amount of points scored in the history of Rupp Arena. 118 points are the most scored in coach Calipari’s tenure at Kentucky.

Tuesday’s game kicks off a weeklong battle between SEC vs ACC opponents. This year’s slate includes several marquee games. On Tuesday, in addition to UK vs Miami, we’ll have our eyes on NC State at Ole Miss and Clemson at Alabama. We’ll enjoy matchups like Tennessee at North Carolina, Texas A&M at Virginia, Virginia Tech at Auburn, and Duke at Arkansas on Wednesday.

But, our primary focus is the matchup of Kentucky vs Miami. National media will undoubtedly talk about the rise of Miami and its recent success in March compared to UK which has struggled. Additionally, they’ll talk about their overall veteran presence on the roster and point to the fact that they are returning over 50% of their scoring from the 2022-2023 Final Four. They’ll point to their most recent victories in the Bahamas against SEC foe Georgia and thorn-in-the-side Kansas State. However, here at Wildcat Big Blue Nation, we dig a little deeper into Tuesday’s game preview.

Strength in numbers

Miami will look to its core, veteran players for most of the production. Under coach Jim Larranaga, they thrive on understanding their team identity and playing to their strengths.

For Kentucky basketball, there is no denying that their two best players, statistically, are coming off the bench. Although both players are averaging similar minutes as the starters, the fact remains that Kentucky’s production will be reliant on the impact of their bench.

UK had lineup issues and offensive stagnation in the loss to Kansas but showed improvement by winning an overtime game against St. Joe’s. In the battle of poise, attention to detail, and thorough scouting reports, stars shine brightest on the biggest stage. A key to a Kentucky victory will be in the hands of which star will take the spotlight.

Value the possession

As you might expect in a top-15 matchup this early in the season, both teams match up fairly similarly. Kentucky has the slight edge in 3-point percentage but Miami has the edge in overall field goal percentage. The Hurricanes have the edge in most defensive categories but Kentucky basketball holds the edge in turnover-to-assist ratio and steals. Both teams are near the best in the country at scoring offense and assists. You can look at all the statistics available but the overwhelming theme comes down to valuing the ball and maximizing your possessions.

Can the Cats capture a few offensive rebounds, create a few steals, and create fouls on Miami’s top 5? Can Dillingham, Wagner, and Edwards continue their offensive continuity. Can Reeves and Mitchell knock down clutch shots? Can Miami’s guards be stopped consistently? Can Kentucky’s makeshift front court keep Norchad Omier, their best rebounder, off the glass? Look for the team with the most possessions to be the winner on Tuesday.

Another test against top teams

Much has been made about coach Cal’s recent run against highly ranked teams. This game marks another, critical opportunity to squash the critics. Despite the loss to Kansas, the lack of depth in the frontcourt, and the general understanding that this roster is still meshing; a win could get the fanbase to climb up onboard the hype train. There won’t be a better place to do it other than inside Rupp Arena.

Outcome prediction

The race to 71 is in play as Kentucky basketball prevails to a 79-73 victory at Rupp Arena.