Kentucky football: 3 Predictions vs Ball State

Kentucky football starts its season this Saturday, which means it’s finally game week for the Wildcats. UK opens with Ball State, a team they’ve only played one time in the past, winning 28-20 in 2001.

That Wildcats team only went 2-9, but this year, expectations are much higher. Kentucky is looking to make it to a bowl game for the 8th straight year, a testament to the program Mark Stoops has built in Lexington.

Kentucky football opens the season as big favorites to beat Ball State. ESPN currently lists the line at -26.5 in favor of the Wildcats.

I’m not calling any bets here, but rather a few predictions. That way, you can’t blame me when I go 0-3. Sorry about the glass-half-empty attitude.

1. Ball State covers at +26.5

This spread is more difficult than you might assume because Ball State did go 5-7 last year. However, one of their losses was by 49 points to Tennessee. That’s about the only similar competition compared to Kentucky, which gives me reason to believe the Wildcats could control this game from start to finish.

I don’t want to write off the Cardinals totally here – they were one win away from making it to a third straight bowl game. It’s a program that takes its football seriously, and despite playing in a lesser conference, could very well hang in there with Kentucky.

And in fact, I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is a much closer game than people may expect. Ball State QB Layne Hatcher enters after three incredible seasons at Arkansas State and one at Texas State. The dude has over 10,000 career passing yards in college football and is on track to pass Doug Flutie, Justin Herbert, and Peyton Manning this season.

The Cardinal also has a legitimate rushing attack led by Marquez Cooper. The Kent State transfer rushed for 1,300 yards and 11 TDs in 2021 and put on an encore with 1,420 yards and 13 TDs last season. While two guys don’t make a team, having a QB1 and RB1 like that can make things happen against most defenses.

I think that’s all Ball State needs to make this thing close. I’m expecting Kentucky to score some points, but there’s no reason Ball State can’t find the endzone a few times and end with 21 points. That would mean Kentucky needs to win 48-21, which just seems like a lot against a very respectable Ball State team.

2. Devin Leary throws at least 3 TD passes

While I think Ball State will score, so will Kentucky. Last year, the Cardinals boasted a solid secondary, but defending Devin Leary is a much different task.

The NC State transfer is as experienced as any QB these Ball State players will ever play, and he has one of the most experienced receiving groups in the SEC. That’s a recipe for success through the air.

It’s also worth noting that with Chris Rodriguez now in the NFL, Kentucky will have to re-work the rushing attack. Re’Mahn Davis transferred to UK from Vanderbilt, where he rushed for over 1,000 yards last season, and should do a good job setting Leary up for even more success. While Davis is a valuable addition, Leary is one-of-a-kind and could be in line to torch this Ball State defense.

3. Kentucky and Ball State combine for at least 50 points

The over is set for 49, which seems extremely low considering the talent on both of these offenses. Sure, Ball State’s defense is respectable – in the MAC, and Kentucky football will always have a good D under Stoops.

However, these offenses are both stacked with talent. 7 total touchdowns seem like a low number.

Of course, with all of the moving pieces, I’m sure both teams will be a little rusty. However, that’s the day of age we’re in with the transfer portal taking over college athletics. I think chemistry from year to year is important, but it no longer defines every team.

I’m I had to make a ballpark guess, I’d take Kentucky winning this game, 38 to 21. That’s 59 points, which the last time I checked, is 10 more than the current over/under.