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Providence vs. Kentucky prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Round

By Reed Wallach

Mar 4, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) dribbles during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky won 88-79. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 4, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) dribbles during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky won 88-79. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports /
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The No. 6 seed in the East Region, Kentucky, tips off the NCAA Tournament against No. 11 seed Providence.

The Wildcats will look to erase the memory of losing as a No. 2 seed to No. 15 seed and eventual Elite Eight team St. Peter’s with a first round win against the Friars, who have dropped three of their past four games leading up to the ‘Big Dance.’

Kentucky has played some of its best basketball ahead of the NCAA Tournament, winning give of seven, and now will look to cover the short spread on Friday night.

Here are the odds for the Round of 64 matchup:

Providence vs. Kentucky odds, spread and total 

Providence vs. Kentucky prediction and pick

These are two teams trending in the wrong direction. Over the last month, Providence rates as the 101st best team in Bart Torvik’s adjusted efficiency metric over the last month, 2-4 over their last six games. Meanwhile, Kentucky is No. 7 in the same rating as they punish teams with the third highest offensive rebounding rate in that time span.

Providence is 293rd in adjusted defensive efficiency over that time span as teams blitz them from beyond the arc to the tune of over 42% in the last six games. However, the offense remains potent, 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency over their last six games.

The Wildcats should be able to dominate inside, but they aren’t pressuring opponents this season, 100th lowest turnover percentage this season. That will allow Providence to operate with little resistance, but I still don’t like the schematic matchup for the Friars as Ed Cooley runs a compact flex offense that pounds the paint. The team is 317th in three-point rate this season as they try to bludgeon teams inside with off ball screens.

However, Kentucky’s defense is fantastic on the interior, 33rd in two-point percentage allowed over the last month, and top 100 over the course of the year.

I think the Wildcats can score at will and have the matchup advantages on defense to limit the Friars and win by a couple of possessions.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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