Kentucky football odds and prediction for the Missouri game week 10

Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez Jr. /

Is Missouri the perfect bounce-back game for the Kentucky football team seeking its sixth win and becoming bowl eligible? Most definitely.

This Kentucky football squad is coming off of by far one of their worst performances of the season being blown out by Tennessee 44-6 and now losing three of their past four games.

The Wildcats (5-3, 2-3)  finished with a season-low 205 total yards, including 98 through the air. The big story for Kentucky in their matchup with Tennessee was the turnovers.

This has been an issue for Kentucky all year long, as they rank outside the top 100 in turnovers lost. This week they opened up as two-point favorites on the road against Missouri. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for Kentucky to get that bad taste out of their mouth from last week’s loss.

The total sits at 40.5 on FanDuel which is in line with how both of these teams want to play. Kentucky has a potential top-ten overall pick in Will Levis, but they are still a run-first team.

A lot of their rushing metrics are skewed due to the early absence of Chris Rodriguez. Since Rodriguez has returned, Kentucky has run the ball more efficiently and effectively. In the four games since his return, Rodriguez Is averaging 114 yards with four touchdowns.

Missouri (4-4, 2-3) also relies more on the run, with five running backs that have over 125 yards. Kentucky does well against the run, ranking 28th in rush defense, and this is against some pretty good rush offenses. With both teams being run-heavy, this sets up for limited possessions which are perfect for an under.

In the Tuesday press conference, offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello emphasized that he felt good about how the offense would bounce back this week.

Kentucky will be challenged by a very good Missouri defense that has been playing extremely well. They currently rank 26th in rush defense, 29th in pass defense, and 23rd in yards per play. A more balanced attack from Kentucky should keep this defense on its toes, which is what I expect after hearing both Scangarello and Mark Stoops talk about the offense this week.

Kentucky Football vs. Missouri Tigers odds for Game 9:

The Wildcats travel to Columbia as a 1.5-point favorite underdog on FanDuel. The spread line has Missouri at -115 and Kentucky at -105.  So if you bet $100 on Kentucky to cover the spread, you’d win $95.24, or if you think Missouri will cover, you will pocket $86.96.

Fan Duel’s money line odds for Kentucky and Missouri right now are -111 for the Tigers and -108 for Kentucky. If you drop $100 on the Cats for the money line you would win $90.09 and the same on the Vols you would claim $92.59.

The over/under is 40.5 points. So if betting on the over/under is more to your liking, throwing down $100 on either would only result in a $90.91 ticket.

Kentucky Football vs. Missouri Tigers predictions for Game 9:

Just like the five keys to beating Tennessee last week, a major key to winning and covering this game is going to be protecting the football.

Missouri has forced two turnovers in three of their most recent four games. It will be important for the Kentucky offense to stay on schedule and play within themselves and the system.

Against Tennessee, there were times Levis was forcing things rather than taking what the defense was giving him. There is no shame in that, all great quarterbacks are guilty of doing this in their careers. It is how they respond that tells us how great they are, and I think Will Levis will have a monster game Saturday.

Missouri is also prone to turning the ball over as they rank outside the top 100 (109th) in turnovers lost. The front seven of Kentucky should be able to disrupt the Missouri offense and cause some negative plays. Missouri also ranks 123rd in tackles for loss allowed, which should allow the front seven of Kentucky to be able to have success. Forcing Missouri to work in 3rd and long is the ultimate advantage for this Kentucky defense. Kentucky is top 25 in 3rd down conversions allowed, so they know how to finish defensive drives and get off of the field.

There was some bad news when it came to the Kentucky defense this week. In Mark Stoops Monday press conference, he stated that linebacker and leading tackler DeAndre Square is doubtful for the game. This is a big loss for the Wildcats, as the next leading tackler is 20 tackles behind. With the way Missouri rotates its backs, it is going to take a group effort to be able to replace DeAndre’s production. Coach Stoops was confident in saying that Trevin Wallace will come in and be able to perform at a high level in DeAndre’s place.

Wildcat Blue Nation Staff predictions:

At the beginning of the season, we predicted Kentucky would win this week sandwiched between losses to Tennessee and next week against Georgia.

Kentucky has won six of the last seven against Missouri with two of those wins coming in Columbia. Missouri has only allowed one 100-yard rusher on the season, and that was Deuce Vaughn of Kansas State but look for Rodriguez to duplicate what he did against Mississippi State.

Missouri has been playing well, but I think Kentucky is the better team overall. The loss to Tennessee mixed with Missouri’s win on the road against South Carolina is why this line is not north of three.

Delonte Smith –  Kentucky 24, Missouri 12

Eric Thorne – Kentucky 21, Missouri 20

Tyler Reed – Missouri 20, Kentucky 16

Next. Kentucky high bowl luster dimming. dark