Why the Kentucky basketball team cannot win the South Region

The Kentucky basketball team begins play in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. UK drew quite possibly the toughest region in the tournament. For that reason, and others, the Wildcats will not win the South Region.

The Kentucky basketball team has an uphill battle in front of them. As the No. 5 seed in the South Region, the Wildcats may have to face the likes of Arizona, Cincinnati, Tennessee and the No.1 overall seed Virginia. The deck appears stacked against UK, and I don’t think the Cats will win the South Region.

Potential opponents

I don’t want to sound like John Calipari, but the selection committee did the Kentucky basketball team no favors. Compared to the other regions, Kentucky has the most difficult match ups in front of them. Even their first-round date with Davidson is no picnic.

Davidson is 21-11 on the season. They got to the NCAA Tournament via automatic-bid by winning the Atlantic-10 Tournament. Davidson is a tough match up for Kentucky. Coach Bob McKillop’s squad is lethal from downtown. I know the UK guards the three-point shot well, but they’ve not gone up against a team like the Davidson Wildcats.

Davidson has two players who take more than 6 three-pointers per game and are knocking them down at better than 37%. Davidson also does a great job of not beating themselves. The Wildcats from North Carolina only average 9.5 turnovers per contest. That’s second-best in the nation.

If the Cats are lucky enough to get by Davidson, they’ll have to play the Pac-12 Champions, the Arizona Wildcats. Sean Miller’s group is talented, big and has experience. Three of the top four scorers for Arizona are upperclassmen.

Arizona also happens to have the potential National Player of the Year in Deandre Ayton. Ayton is 7’1″, 250-pounds. He’s averaging a double-double with 20.3 points and 11.5 rebounds. He can score inside and outside, and converts his free throw opportunities. Ayton is a beast, and I don’t think, especially without Jarred Vanderbilt, that UK can stop him.

Given the first two potential match ups for the Kentucky basketball team, they’ll be fortunate to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Their opponent in the regional semifinal, most likely it will be the No. 1 overall seed, the Virginia Cavaliers. Virginia has only two losses on the season.

Even without De’Andre Hunter, Tony Bennett’s team is a tough out in this tournament. Virginia loves to slow the pace of play and make their opponent play defense. That’s not exactly Kentucky’s cup of tea. A match up with the Cavaliers could easily derail the Kentucky basketball team’s chances at making the Final Four.

Kentucky’s talent

Let’s face it Big Blue Nation, this is not the elite level of talent that we typically see from a John Calipari-coach Kentucky basketball team. These kids have done a phenomenal job accepting their roles and growing as players and young men, but there are more talented teams in this year’s tournament.

The two biggest holes on this year’s Kentucky basketball team are three-point shooting and a dominant inside presence. UK, until Wenyen Gabriel caught fire in the SEC Tournament, has been terrible from distance all season. The Cats are shooting a respectable 36.1% from behind the arc. The problem is, they’re taking only 15 three-pointers per game.

Hamidou Diallo is not an effective three-point shooter. When he is on the court, most opponents are daring him to shoot that shot. Quade Green, who has been fairly reliable from deep, seemed to fade in the SEC Tournament. If Green isn’t hitting from downtown, the Cats have no shot.

The other major flaw in Kentucky’s game is the absence of a post-presence. If you examine Cal’s teams over the years, they’ve always excelled when they have a dominant big man in the paint. Karl-Anthony Towns, DeMarcus Cousins, Willie Cauley-Stein and Julius Randle were stars in the post. This year’s team is more reminiscent of having Skal Labissiere.

Labissiere is a solid player. In fact, he’s averaging 8.5 points and 4.6 rebounds per game for the Sacramento Kings this season. But Skal was a finesse-type of center. He was never going to dominate an opponent on the low block, nor was he a dominating shot blocker. Nick Richards and Sacha Killeya-Jones, while I think they’re both solid, developmental players, they’re not the dominant post presence that Kentucky needs.

Kentucky’s lack of three-point shooting and lack of a dominant post presence will prove to be too much, I’m afraid, for this year’s young group of Wildcats. So while I hope I’m wrong, I don’t see Kentucky making it out of the South Region.