Kentucky Wildcats Basketball: Where Might the ‘Cats Stumble?

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Now that Kentucky has made it through what many people (including myself) consider to be the most difficult part of their conference schedule, talk of a perfect regular season, and a perfect season overall, only intensifies. I continue to believe that Kentucky will lose a game before the NCAA Tournament, though at this point it’s becoming harder and harder to hold on to that belief.

Based on ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Kentucky’s least winnable game is on 3 March in Athens versus Georgia, a team that gave the ‘Cats fits in Rupp Arena last week. Still, the BPI says Kentucky has an 86 percent chance of winning. Thus, based on probability, Kentucky should enter the SEC Tournament undefeated. And, while I haven’t yet seen any probability statistics for the SEC Tournament, it seems like a safe bet that Kentucky would be favored to win it, as well.

This brings us to the NCAA Tournament. At this point, the ‘Cats should be 34-0; only 6 games stand between them and perfection. Where, though, might Kentucky run into trouble? Where, then, could the dream of not only a perfect season but a ninth national championship come to an end?

1st Round (Round of 64): Kentucky will play, most likely, play either the worst 16th seed or the second-worst 16th seed. Should either one of these teams beat Kentucky it would be an upset of historic proportions in any sport. The Wildcats aren’t running into trouble here.

2nd Round (Round of 32): Joe Lunardi’s current 8-seeds are Oklahoma State, Texas, Iowa, and Georgia. His 9-seeds are Xavier, Michigan State, Stanford, and San Diego State. NONE of these 8 teams scare me. The Wildcats aren’t running into trouble here, either. Especially when they’ll be playing in the Yum! Center in front of a 90% pro-Kentucky crowd.

Sweet 16: The Sweet 16 would likely be when Kentucky would play it’s first true competitive game in the Tournament. Assuming no 1st or 2nd round upsets (which, of course, is quite unlikely) the ‘Cats would play a 4-seed. And, it could be a dangerous 4-seed: Wichita State, Notre Dame, Baylor, Maryland—all are teams whose ceiling is probably a 4-seed and who could, especially Notre Dame, give Kentucky a scare.

Elite 8: I am, I must admit, more nervous about Kentucky’s potential opponents in the Elite 8 than I am in the Final 4. First, because I am a paranoid Wildcat fan, I fully expect the ‘Cats to have the best 2-seed in their bracket. If Kentucky is 34-0 entering the NCAA Tournament, there is a part of me that believes the Committee will do everything possible to make the ‘Cats road to the Final Four as difficult as possible. Kansas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga. One of these teams will be seeded number 2 in Kentucky’s bracket. And, while many Kentucky fans would likely be happy with Villanova or Gonzaga, both would be tougher outs than they may first appear. Villanova shoots 37 percent from behind the arc and averages 75 points per game. Gonzago shoots 41 percent from behind the arc and averages 81 points per game. And while it’s easy to say, “Well, they play in weak conferences against inferior competition” that ignores the fact that both teams shoot well and can score points. Kansas, Wisconsin, and Arizona all have talent but motive for trying to beat Kentucky. Kansas wants to avenge the embarrassing loss from back in November; Wisconsin, last year’s Final Four; and Arizona to prove they’re not a bunch of overrated Wildcats like some believe they are.

Final Four: Surprisingly, I’m not too worried about potential Final Four matchups. Kentucky likely plays Virginia or Duke. And, while other analysts, pundits, and fans think either team is capable of knocking off the ‘Cats, I don’t. Duke doesn’t have the depth to compete with Kentucky and they don’t have the strength. Simply put, Kentucky would push the Blue Devils around. Virginia, although they play incredible defense, struggles to score. In a defensive matchup between the ‘Cats and the Cavaliers, I like Kentucky’s chances.

National Championship: It doesn’t matter, at this point, who Kentucky might play. My worry at this stage has less to do with another team beating Kentucky than Kentucky beating Kentucky. At 39-0, would the pressure be too great? Would Kentucky, down by 5 with 5 minutes to go, wilt under the stress of trying to be perfect? To contradict myself just a bit, I do believe that should Kentucky find itself matched up against Virginia or Duke in the national championship game, I think the ‘Cats would struggle more against them than they would if they played either in the Final Four. And, it has more to do with Kentucky than Duke or Virginia.

A maximum of 16 games remain. Sixteen games stand between the Wildcats and sports immortality. Can they do it? More and more, it seems likely they will.