Kentucky Wildcats Basketball: Margin of Error?

Thirteen wins and zero losses. That is where the record for the Kentucky Wildcats basketball team currently stands at the end of non-conference play. Now, the Wildcats are not the only team to be undefeated at this moment in time. There are five more in fact. #2 Duke is 10-0, #3 Virginia is 11-0, #6 Villanova is 12-0, #24 Colorado State is 13-0, and unranked TCU is 12-0. Despite these teams all having a zero in the losses column, there is one thing they don’t have. That is first-place votes. The Kentucky Wildcats basketball team received all 65 first place votes in the AP poll and 30 of the 31 first place votes in the coaches poll. Duke received the lone other vote for the coaches poll.

With all of these votes, it is clear that this Kentucky Wildcats basketball team has been dominate. In fact, they have outscored their non-conference opponents by an average of 27.5 points. Of course, with some cupcakes littering the non-conference slate, some people might not be persuaded. This is where the big wins come into play, as the Kentucky Wildcats have played four teams currently ranked in the top-20. Against #5 Louisville, #11 Texas, #13 Kansas, and #19 North Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats have won by an average of 16.5 points. This shows how dominate Kentucky has truly been. Of course, you might be wondering why I am telling you all of this. Well, it is to discuss the Wildcats margin of error, something that John Gasaway of ESPN brought into question earlier today.

"Barring the most massive wave of injuries or suspensions seen in recent years, things like foul trouble and personnel choices just don’t matter as much with a nine-player rotation of players who were rated as top-40 recruits nationally out of high school. Calipari’s margin for error, injury or mishap may be unprecedented."

With this said, one has to wonder what the margin of error for these Kentucky Wildcats truly is. They started out the year using two, five-man platoons. This style wore down the opposition while giving every player the minutes they deserved. However, when Alex Poythress went down, many said that this team would struggle and that John Calipari would have a hard time balancing out the minutes for everyone. That has simply not been the case. Since the Poythress injury, the Wildcats have won by an average of 20.3 points over three powerhouse teams in North Carolina, UCLA, and Louisville. But that’s just a small piece of their margin of error.

Look what this team has done against contrasting styles of play. Against Providence and Columbia, they were forced to play a half-court, grind-it-out game. In those games, they answered and won by 20 points and 10 points respectively. In other games, they were bullied down low and forced to play “grown-men” basketball. In those games against Texas and Louisville, they won by 12 points and eight points respectively. In yet another style, against North Carolina, they were pushed to run the court and play fast-paced basketball. In that game, where UNC shot 45% from the field and scored 70 points, Kentucky was able to shoot 56.3% from the field and score 84 points in the 14 point win. This is all to say that the style they play is irrelevant.

As far as lineups, we’ve seen a little bit of everything since the Poythress injury. It has seemingly not mattered, as parts are so interchangeable that anything works. Foul trouble plagued the Wildcats in the Louisville game, but was all not an issue. Willie Cauley-Stein had to be pulled for this, but was replaced with Dakari Johnson, who is arguably the best offensive rebounder in the nation. We saw Andrew Harrison struggle, but was pulled late in the game for Tyler Ulis, who was Calipari’s third option at point guard in the 2014 class and “only” rated as the 25th best player in the naiton. The point is, this Kentucky Wildcats basketball team doesn’t operate like a normal team.

This team isn’t a robot. Or a machine. But they also aren’t normal. It is this reason that their margin of error is high. Really, really high. The rules simply don’t apply to them. Injuries or foul trouble hits? Replace the player with another McDonald’s All-American. It’s simply not fair. And because of this, teams will come into games with doubts in their minds. Doubts that they can win, or even keep it close. Teams will beat themselves before they even step onto the court. And it is that reason right there that, barring them beating themselves, that this team will enter the NCAA Tournament 34-0.