Kentucky Wildcats Football: Is the Seat Getting Warm for Stoops?
By Brian Smith
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
It is difficult for a newly hired head coach to engineer the kind of quick turnaround in college football that is possible to do in other sports, such as college basketball. Not only does the size of a college football team’s roster present a challenge to win big right away, in any given year, a head coach elects to redshirt many of his incoming freshmen in order to given them the additional year to grow into the college game. As a result, depending on when a coach is hired by a school, three years may pass before he is able to field a team comprised mostly of his recruits. It is, therefore, not entirely fair, to judge the success or failure of a college football coach until at least he has been in charge for 3 years. After all, even Nick Saban went 7-6 his first year as head coach at Alabama, losing 4 straight at the end of the regular season, including at home to Louisiana-Monroe (of course, being Alabama, he went 12-2 in Year Number Two).
Thus, even with the disappointing second half of the season, it’s important to remember that it’s simply too early to tell whether Mark Stoops will be a success at Kentucky or, like so many before him, a failure. Although Stoops has been around for 2 National Signing Days, only one of them was made up entirely of guys he, and his staff, recruited. And a lot of those guys, guys the coaching staff believe will be significant contributors to the program, are sitting this year out. In terms of wins and losses, one could argue that the Coach Stoops Project is succeeding. The team’s five wins this season are more than the last two seasons combined. The team’s two conference wins this season are more than the last two seasons combined. With a win next Saturday against UofL, the team would be bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. The team’s offensive numbers are better than last season, and although they’re worse defensively, most of that is due to 3 games—LSU, Georgia, and Tennessee. In wins over UT Martin, Ohio, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and UL Monroe, and losses to Mississippi State and Missouri, the Wildcats gave up, on average, 22 points. In the above-mentioned 3 losses, the ‘Cats surrendered, on average, 51 points per game. And let’s not forget, much of the disappointment with this season could disappear with a win over UofL next week.
So yes, Kentucky football is looking up. And yes, Mark Stoops needs more time before anyone can really judge his tenure as head coach. That is why this next statement may, at first, appear to be completely irrational and illogical:
If the Kentucky Wildcats do not make a bowl game next year, Stoops will be on the hot seat in 2016.
Next fall, Mark Stoops will field a Kentucky team made up mostly of his guys. Most of his offensive weapons will be guys he signed. His defensive stars? Guys he signed. Stoops is recruiting at a level unseen before at Kentucky. And next season is when those guys ought to be expected to win. In 2015, Kentucky has 8 home games. Aside from a Thursday night match-up against Auburn, all are winnable. There is no reason why next year’s Wildcat team cannot win a minimum of 6 games (Louisiana-Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Charlotte should be locks with at least 2 more coming against Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, and Louisville). You could make the argument that Kentucky should win 7 or 8 games next season but, in the words of Dana O’Neil, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Most Kentucky fans have, rightly so, given Stoops an extended honeymoon period, recognizing that it would take time to build the Wildcats into a contender. And while the frustrations of the last few weeks are understandable, the improvements Stoops and his coaching staff have made this year should not go unnoticed. But next season? If next season fans are still trying to make themselves feel better by pointing to moral victories and the Wildcats aren’t playing in a bowl game, well, Stoops’ time in Lexington may be nearing an end. And if so, it will be Mitch Barnhart who looks like the genius for not including a buy-out clause in Stoops’ contract extension.