Game Day Links: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals
By Wayne
Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
Something that makes these Kentucky Wildcats, and this game, so unpredictable is their youth. ESPN’s Dana O’Neill explains.
"This early college basketball season has been both highly entertaining and wildly unpredictable. Why? Because first-year players are in control of it. It’s like asking a toddler to run the stock market, a first-grader to balance your checkbook. It could be fun or, more likely, it could be a debacle. On Saturday, when Kentucky hosts Louisville, the Wildcats’ freshmen continue John Calipari’s Great Experiment in a slightly downgraded Game of the Year. “The challenge — let me tell you, the one thing with them, they play extremely hard, way harder than we’ve played, like, way harder,” Calipari said recently. “And again, they’re a Final Four, national championship team this year — those guys are back. They know how hard to play; they’re not rattled late, all the things that this team is still learning about.” The Wildcats have been the most confounding of freshmen-reliant teams — not surprising thanks to their no-shaver-required median age. They have played three name-brand, RPI top-50 teams (Michigan State, Baylor and North Carolina) and lost to all three. They have looked like world-beaters sometimes and disinterested, shoulder-slumping kids at others. Come March, they could be bounced early. Come April, they could easily win it all. Come Saturday, who knows? This much is certain — the Wildcats need this win. They need it for statistical reasons. Kentucky heads to the turn of this season devoid of a true quality win and with little opportunity to get such wins when league play starts. The SEC is 6-22 against the RPI’s top 50 and 20-34 against the top 100. Outside of two games against Florida and LSU and one at Missouri, there is little for the Wildcats to build a resume on for March seeding. And the Wildcats need it for an obvious reason. It’s against Louisville. The Cardinals are the defending national champions, an impossibly difficult dose of medicine for ardent Cats supporters to swallow. Plus, Louisville is currently ranked higher than UK (No. 6 to No. 18), has a better record (11-1 to 9-3) and, despite a bad loss to North Carolina and a tepid schedule, has looked better and more in order than Kentucky. So a Cardinals victory here would be close to untenable for Kentucky. But most of all, the Wildcats need to win for reasons that can’t be easily quantified. No one has mastered the art of turning college winners into NBA lottery picks better than Calipari, and there has been little reason to question the method to his March Madness. Aside from a mess of a 2012-13 season, his Kentucky track record reads like a college coach’s wish list — Elite Eight to Final Four to national champion, and then an NIT hiccup to, arguably, the top class in history."
With all the attention being on the Kentucky Wildcats starting 5 of the Harrison twins, James Young, Julius Randle and Marcus Lee/Alex Poythress, it’s difficult to imagine a game where the bench could be more important. Rick Pitino always has a deep bench and has never been shy of putting them in for starters minutes. This team is no exception so the Cats better have their running shoes on.
"The Cards go much deeper than the Cats. Louisville has nine players averaging at least 17 minutes per game and eight guys averaging at least five points. Kentucky has six averaging 17-plus minutes and only five averaging five-plus points. The Cards currently have four players with significant starting experience coming off the bench — guards Chris Jones and Luke Hancock, forwards Chane Behanan and Stephan Van Treese. The Cats answer with veteran Alex Poythress, a part-time starter last season, and three freshmen as their top reserves. “Our bench has helped us,” UK coach John Calipari said, “and there are times it hasn’t. When you talk about their bench … you’re talking about a veteran group of guys coming off the bench. We’re still young. So it’s a little different. When you’re talking about having a veteran team, you don’t have to be on the court as much, because you already know how to play together. “So now it becomes just managing minutes. But when you’re trying to teach a team to play together, you gotta keep units together so that they get some sort of synergy going.” Poythress will be a key for the Cats. He’s averaging 4.7 points and six rebounds and while Calipari reiterated Friday that he’s practicing “as well as he’s ever played here,” it hasn’t fully materialized in games. Now would be a useful time for that to happen."
Add all the statistics and conjecture together and you have predictions. Yes, some 75 people pooled their genius together to give us their best “one line” insight into the outcome of the game and how it comes to pass. Our own Editor, Paul Jordan was asked to weigh in. For all you troll hunters out there, a few other noteables chimed as well.
Seth Davis (Sports Illustrated) says Kentucky 80, Louisville 79. Louisville’s schedule, plus Luke Hancock’s lingering Achilles injury, plus Kentucky’s recent improvement, plus Kentucky’s homecourt advantage adds up to the breakthrough win that the Big Blue Nation has been pining for.
Mike Decourcy (Sporting News) says Louisville 72, Kentucky 69. Last year’s Wildcats at least showed a level of comfort at home. This team hasn’t yet embraced any court as a place to comfortably do business.
Pat Forde (Yahoo) says Louisville 74, Kentucky 72. Russ Smith, overshadowed by freshmen this season, will remind everyone why he’s an All-American in a gym where he always shines.
Jeff Goodman (ESPN) says Kentucky 71, Louisville 69. It’s a complete toss-up, but I’m going with the home team here. Cards still not in sync yet.
Paul Jordan (Wildcat Blue Nation) says Kentucky 79, Louisville 73. Andrew Harrison and Julius Randle turn in complete games at both ends of the court as Cards go cold from long range.
Andy Katz (ESPN) says Kentucky 72, Louisville 70. The difference will be Julius Randle, the one area of the floor where the Wildcats have a decided advantage.
Eric Prisbell (USA Today) says Louisville 83, Kentucky 82. I still believe UK will be the better team come march, but U of L, flying under the radar all season, is the more complete team today.
Dan Wolken (USA Today) says Louisville 64, Kentucky 62. I just think Pitino will scheme to take away Randle and I don’t trust UK’s other players yet offensively to win a game like that scoring in the half court. But I have zero confidence in that pick. Kentucky could very well turn the corner at home.