We’re now approaching the final stretch of the college basketball season that will determine where teams will be seeded in the NCAA Tournament. After this weekend, most teams will have five or less games left before they enter their conference tournaments. At this point every team has a seed range of about three spots. This means that a team like Ohio State is locked into no less than a 1-3 seed, a team like Georgetown with a 2-4 seed, and a team like Michigan with a 4-6 seed. Obviously if a team goes on a scorching-hot winning streak, or a horrendous losing streak, that range can expand, but most teams will be within three seeds of where they would project as of today. So who would the top seeds be and where would Kentucky be if the NCAA selection committee made their selections today?
Based on the projections of Joe Lunardi, Yahoo Sports, the AP Top-25, and every teams’ RPI, this is how I would project the top 12 teams in the tournament and their seed:
1 Syracuse-I know UK is #1 in nearly ever ranking system now, but the Cuse have the #1 RPI rating, and they play a much more brutal schedule in the Big East. They’ve already played five more RPI top-100 teams than UK, and their undefeated when Fab Melo is in the lineup. They have the #12 strength of schedule, UK’s SOS is 74th. The margin between Syracuse and UK is very narrow though, and this by no means means that Syracuse is better than UK, but only that as of now they deserve the #1 overall seed by a hair.
2 Kentucky-The Cats have been dominant this year, losing only one road. At 24-1, they rank as the #1 team in nearly every major poll. They have the #2 adjusted scoring margin in the nation behind only Ohio State. They have four wins over current top-25 teams. They’re #2 in Ken Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings, and have arguably the most room to grown between now and the NCAA Tournament, as six of their top seven players are freshman or sophomores.
3 Ohio State-At 21-3, the Buckeyes Rank #3 in both the AP and Coaches’ poll. They’re #1 in both ASM and in Ken Pom. They’re in first-place in arguably the deepest conference in the Big 10, with five teams in the top-25. They have wins over five teams currently ranked in the top-25.
4 Missouri-At 22-2, the Tigers are ranked #4 in both the AP and Coaches’ poll. They’ve won at #6 Baylor and at home against #8 Kansas. They’ve played the #13 SOS. They’re currently tied for first place in the Big 12, which has three teams in the top-10.
5 Duke-The Blue Devils have some questionable losses, but have as many big-time wins as any team with victories over #8 Kansas, #11 Michigan State, #19 Virginia, #22 Michigan and have arguably the biggest win in college basketball this year with a road win at #5 UNC. They’re #2 in RPI and have the #2 SOS.
6 North Carolina– The Tar Heels have five wins over RPI top-50 teams, are ranked #5 in both major polls, and are #4 in ASM and #1 in offensive quotient.
7 Kansas-The Jayhawks have four top-12 wins against #3 Ohio State and #6 Baylor twice and #11 Georgetown. They have the #3 SOS, are ranked #8 in both major polls, and have the #5 RPI.
8 Baylor-At 21-3, the Bears won their first 17 games, have two top-25 wins and seven RPI top-50 wins. They have the #13 SOS and #6 RPI.
9 Michigan State– The Spartans have four top-25 wins, including a road win against #21 Wisconsin and at Gonzaga(RPI #18). They have the #6 SOS and #7 RPI, and are #5 in ASM.
10 Georgetown-The Hoyas have five RPI top-25 wins, which is tied for most in the nation with Duke and Ohio State. They also have the #11 SOS.
11 UNLV– The Running Rebels stunned the world when they beat #1 UNC(now #5) in a neutral site game early this year. They also have five RPI top-50 wins, the #10 RPI, and are #5 in offensive quotient and #11 in ASM.
12 Florida-The Gators have six RPI top-100 wins. They’ve played three RPI top-4 teams. They’re #4 in offensive quotient and #9 in ASM.
If these teams were seeded based on the S-curve, that would leave the following seeds:
Region 1:
1. Syracuse
8. Baylor
12. Florida
Region 2:
2. Kentucky
7. Kansas
11. UNLV
Region 3:
3. Ohio State
6. North Carolina
10. Georgetown
The problem with these seeding is that the NCAA selection committee likes to avoid regular-season rematches, meaning they would probably trade Baylor and Kansas to avoid a UK/KU rematch, but it would be impossible to avoid a Florida rematch since they’ve played all the top-3 seeds, but they’ll avoid putting the Gators in UK’s region to try and avoid having two top-12 seeds from the same conference in the same region.
And to think, there’s 56 other teams to be projected…. That’s why they call it March Madness.