GAME 14
#4 LOUISVILLE CARDINALS 12-1
DECEMBER 31, 2011 – 12:00 PM
RUPP ARENA – LEXINGTON, KY
TV – CBS
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 28-14
RECENT GAMES
12/31/10: KENTUCKY 78 Louisville 63
1/2/2010: KENTUCKY 71 Louisville 62
1/4/2009: Louisville 74 KENTUCKY 71
1/5/2008: Louisville 89 KENTUCKY 75
12/16/2006: KENTUCKY 61 Louisville 49
Kentucky versus Louisville. John Calipari versus Louisville. It’s another top five showdown at Rupp Arena and for those asking, this is the first time that Rupp Arena has hosted two top five matchups in the same season. Louisville suffered their first loss of the season at home versus Georgetown on Wednesday so expect a motivated Cardinal team to come into Rupp. Rick Pitino comes into the game 4-6 against his former team, but when you look a bit closer, he is 2-6 against Kentucky coaches not named Billy Gillispie. Kentucky has won five of the past seven games. I could try and sell this game to you more, but I don’t need to. It’s Kentucky versus Louisville. Let’s meet the Cardinals.
PROBABLE STARTERS
#3 – G- PEYTON SIVA – JR – 6’0, 180
9.5 PPG, 6.4 APG, 2.8 RPG
#5 – G – CHRIS SMITH – SR – 6’2, 195
9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.9 APG
#14 – G/F – KYLE KURIC – SR – 6’4, 195
13.5 PG, 4.5 RPG, 1.2 APG
#24 – F – CHANE BEHANAN – FR – 6’6, 250
8.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 0.8 APG
#10 – C – GORGUI DIENG – SO – 6’11. 235
10.5 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.4 APG
THE BENCH
#2 – G – RUSS SMITH – SO – 6’0, 160
10.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.9 APG
#4 – F – RAKEEM BUCKLES – JR -6’7, 215
5.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG
#21 – F – JARED SWOPSHIRE – JR – 6’8, 200
4.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0.3 APG
#22 – G – ELISHA JUSTICE – SO – 5’10, 175
1.9 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 0.5 APG
NATIONAL STAT RANKINGS/ TEAM STATS
SCORING
KENTUCKY: 82.5 (10TH)
LOUISVILLE: 72.8 (100TH)
REBOUNDS
KENTUCKY: 40.9 (11TH)
LOUISVILLE: 40.5 (16TH)
ASSISTS
KENTUCKY: 14.7 (76TH)
LOUISVILLE: 14.4 (88TH)
SHOOTING %
KENTUCKY: 49.8% (11TH)
LOUISVILLE: 43.9% (162ND)
3-PT SHOOTING
KENTUCKY: 79-210 (37.6%)
LOUISVILLE: 79-246 (32.1%)
FT SHOOTING
KENTUCKY: 220-312 (70.5%)
LOUISVILLE: 203-298 (68.1%)
A/TO RATIO
KENTUCKY: 1.16
LOUISVILLE: 1.02
In some ways, the Louisville Cardinals are a lot like the Lamar Cardinals. Granted, Louisville is obviously the better team, but there are similarities. For the second straight game. Kentucky is facing a team that does not shoot well, but is very good at rebounding. Louisville also can struggle to put points on the board as they have seven games where they have scored under 70 points. Kentucky on the other hand, has just one. The Lamar comparison may actually not be a bad one for Louisville. As we can recall, John Calipari was very unhappy about how his team played against Lamar. Maybe Calipari saw the similarities, realized this is a rivalry game, and wants his team to step it up.
The big difference between Louisville and Lamar is the Louisville has better players. Peyton Siva does a good job of distributing the ball, but he is really struggling shooting the ball this year (35.6%). Peyton’s forte is driving with the ball and he likes to drive down the middle to force the defense to collapse on him and then kick the ball out to an open Card for a three-point attempt. A lot has been made of the fact that he is averaging 6.4 assists a game which is almost two assists a game more than Marquis Teague. Siva also turns the ball over a lot more and Siva’s A/TO advantage over Teague is less than you would think (1.8 – 1.4). As a whole, Kentucky has a better passing team and I was stunned to see that they have the better A/TO as a team. For what it’s worth, Chris Smith is doing a better job at running this team at times. Smith has a 3.5 A/TO ratio and is knocking down the treys at a 39.6% clip.
Too many pundits have pointed out that Louisville must have a good 3-pt shooting game in order to upset Kentucky. This is not the strongest Louisville team from beyond the arc as Chris Smith, Russ Smith (36.6%) and Kyle Kuric (35.2%) are the only Card regulars abouve 35%. That is not to say that none of these three players have the ability to get blazing hot and carry this team. Kuric has hit 42.1% of his treys the past two games and once he gets started will be hard to stop.
The battle between the big men will be an interesting game to watch. Behanan and Dieng have shown games with great potential but you still have to give the advantage to Kentucky’s Jones and Davis. Behanan is hitting just 43.8% of his shots but he loves to bang on the boards. Dieng is still coming into his own, but is still a bit raw. Dieng does tend to be inconsistent and can disappear when playing teams with a solid post presence. Anthony Davis has more blocks that Dieng and Behanan combined and as a team, Kentucky has 122 blocks to 63.
The real concern for Kentucky is how they will handle Louisville’s press. Louisvlle has a ball hawking defense and they have 122 steals to 94 for Kentucky. Of those players, Siva is the leader. But part of the reason the press is so successful is when it is used in front of a raucous home crowd. Louisville will not have that advantage and if Kentucky can beat the press early, you may not see it a lot more. If Kentucky struggles against it, expect a “forty minutes of hell” type of assault by Louisville. The downside to the press is that it leaves players open and Kentucky could get a lot of easy baskets off it with their length and athleticism.
Bottom line is, this is a rivalry game and anything can happen. That said, Kentucky has the talent. There are not nine first round NCAA draft picks on the court as their was versus UNC. The only NBA prospects will be winning blue and Kentucky should have an edge at every position except PG, and I am actually calling that one a draw due to the fact Siva is struggling so much with his shot. I also have to think the Rupp crowd will be an advantage for Kentucky. Not a huge one, but the crowd will affect Louisville some. I don’t see this game being as close as some. If Kentucky can keep out of foul trouble, and keep Louisville in single digits on three pointers, we are looking at a 80-68 Wildcat win.