GAME 9
DECEMBER 10, 2011 – 5:15PM
INDIANA HOOSIERS (8-0)
ASSEMBLY HALL – BLOOMINGTON, IN
TV – CBS
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 31-23
LAST FIVE MEETINGS
12/11/2010: KENTUCKY 81 Indiana 62
12/12/2009: KENTUCKY 90 Indiana 73
12/13/2008: KENTUCKY 72 Indiana 54
12/8/2007: Indiana 70 KENTUCKY 51
12/9/2006: KENTUCKY 59 Indiana 54
John Calipari and his Kentucky Wildcats embark on their first real road trip of the 2011-12 basketball campaign and in the process face a bitter rival fighting to become relevant in college basketball again. To most younger Kentucky fans, Indiana represents a sort of whipping boy. Kentucky has won four of the last six games and 16 of the past 20. Yes, there are rumblings of an Indiana basketball resurgence and Tom Crean has his Hoosiers playing well. Even some national pundits are hopping on the “Indiana upsets Kentucky” bandwagon.
Regardless of what happens on the court, tomorrow’s battle is of a historical nature. This is the first time that Kentucky, Indiana, and Louisville have all started a season 8-0. Granted, the Hoosiers have faced a strength of schedule that is near 200th in the nation, but the Hoosiers have won handily and have not been tested.
PROBABLE STARTERS
#12 – G – VERDELL JONES III – SR, 6’5, 185
9.3 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 RPG
#1 – G – JORDAN HULLS – JR, 6’0, 175
11.3 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2.0 RPG
#4 – G – VICTOR OLADIPO – SO, 6’5, 210
12.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.6 APG
#2 – F – CHRISTIAN WATFORD – JR – 6’9, 230
10.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 APG
#40 – F – CODY ZELLER – FR – 6’11, 220
15.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 0.8 APG
THE BENCH
#10 – G/F – WILL SHEEHEY – SO, 6’6, 195
11.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.6 APG
#32 – F – DEREK ELSTON – JR – 6’9, 235
6.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.6 APG
#25 – F – TOM PRITCHARD – SR – 6’9, 250
1.6 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 0.4 APG
#30 – G – MATT ROTH – SR – 6’3, 192
2.4 PPH, 0.5 RPG, 0.5 APG
NATIONAL STAT RANKINGS
POINTS PER GAME
INDIANA: 85.0 (8TH)
KENTUCKY: 82.4 (15TH)
REBOUNDS PER GAME
KENTUCKY: 43.5 (3RD)
INDIANA: 35.9 (162ND)
ASSISTS PER GAME:
INDIANA: 16.1 (30th)
KENTUCKY: 15.4 (51ST)
FIELD GOAL %
INDIANA: 52.3% (6th)
KENTUCKY: 49.0% (22ND)
3-PT SHOOTING
INDIANA: 51-116 (44.0%)
KENTUCKY 46-123 (37.4%)
To be honest, it is hard to get a good read on how good this Indiana team actually is. Their stats are impressive, but they have been padded against the likes of Stoney Brook, Chattanooga, and Stetson. Granted, the Hoosiers have passed every test with flying colors, but this is a team that has not been tested on the season. While most of Indiana’s numbers are impressive, I would say that the rebounding numbers would serve as a red flag. Through 8 games, Indiana is outrebounding their opponents by just 1.8 boards a game, and they have faced no one near the caliber of Kentucky. Kentucky on the other hand has won the battle of the boards with ranked teams like Kansas and UNC.
The key to stopping Indiana is to contain freshman Cody Zeller. Zeller leads the Hoosiers in points, rebounds, steals, blocks, and FG percentage. Zeller is a five star prospect and has tons of upside, but this will be his first real challenge and I am looking forward to the battle between he and Anthony Davis. Christian Watford’s overall numbers are down from last year, but he can score from all over the court. He is hitting 42.9% from both the field and beyond the 3-point line and he can present matchup problems. He is not a great defender however and does not give a lot of resistance inside.
Verdell Jones is not a great shooter, but has managed to average double digits for his four year career at Indiana. He has a nice mid range game and is good at drawing fouls. He does not shoot the three much but has hit 5-9 on the year. Like Watford, his defense can be a liability. Jordan Hulls is building off an impressive sophomore season and is arguably the best shooter on this team. He is hitting 53.6% of his treys and 57.1% overall and has evolved to more of a complete scorer rather than the deep range bomber he used to be. Victor Oladipo provides the flash to the Hoosier offense and is an athletic player who likes to scrap on the glass and provides some highlight worthy plays. He has good length and works hard on defense.
But is this version of the Hoosiers good enough to upset Kentucky? I doubt it. If I were a Hoosier fan, I would be concerned about the rebounding numbers heading into this game. Kentucky has the best front court in the nation and while Zeller has been impressive, the rest of the Hoosier big men are soft. The one area I am concerned about is three point shooting. If Indiana can get hot from three and jump out to a lead, the Assembly Hall crowd will be insane and could affect the game. Kentucky can not afford to keep giving up 11 three pointers a game like they did against North Carolina and expect to win.
Getting control of the tempo will be key to Kentucky who may have to face a slower style of play and the dreaded zone defense. To be honest, I don’t like the long week between games, but I can’t come up with a scenario where Indiana can pull the upset. I think the Hoosiers will play closer than in recent years and if it is a 4-5 point game with 10:00 left, the Hoosiers have Kentucky where they want them.
Look for Kentucky to dominate inside and try to get some early fouls on Zeller. Keep in mind Zeller is still just a freshman and has not played in a game near this intensity. If Kentucky can get Zeller to sit, it could be ugly for the Hoosiers. Tom Crean has done a good job of building a good team, but in the end, Kentucky trumps Indiana on skill on virtually every position. The Hoosiers will go down fighting, but they will go down 82-70.