The hype for a #1 vs #2 matchup between Kentucky and North Carolina began almost immediately after the Connecticut Huskies cut down the nets celebrating their National Title win over Butler. And throughout the Summer, Fall, and even over Thanksgiving, we were bombarded with talk of #1 vs #2. Unfortunately the UNLV Running Rebels spoiled that talk but I am not complaining. The Kentucky/UNC game was without a doubt the game of the year in college basketball and a rematch, even in the National Title game, will be hard pressed to match Saturday’s game.
But it was not #1 versus #2. And I have to admit, that was a small disappointment. But never fear. There could still be a #1 versus #2 matchup in Rupp Arena. This year.
I have to admit, I had not given much thought about the Kentucky/Louisville game being a #1 versus #2 matchup until I saw a tweet from the WBN’s own Tyler Adkins Friday night. And this is not a debate as to whether Louisville is truly a top five team (they are not) but whether they can move up in the rankings enough to make this a #1 vs #2 showdown in Rupp on December 31.
When the polls are released today, they should look something like this:
- Kentucky 8-0
- Ohio State 8-0
- Syracuse 8-0
- Louisville 7-0
I seriously doubt that Duke will stay in the top four after being beat down by Ohio State. And although North Carolina probably still deserves to be in the top three, I doubt that the voters will keep them in the top five with two losses. That said, let’s look at the possibility of a #1 vs #2 Kentucky vs Louisville showdown.
#1 KENTUCKY
The Wildcats should be able to hold on to their number one ranking pretty easily. Their toughest game is at Indiana next Saturday and it will be an insane environment. Anything can happen as it is Kentucky’s first road game and a rival, but I think Indiana is still a year or two away from pulling an upset. After that, Kentucky will feast on cupcakes Chattanooga, Samford, Loyola Maryland, and LaMar. Only Indiana will keep Kentucky from not keeping their #1 date.
#2 OHIO STATE
Ohio State could throw a major wrench in the #1 vs #2 scenario, but they do have one major test to pass. Ohio State travels to #14 Kansas on Saturday and while it be an insane environment, Syracuse has more talent. But playing at Kansas will be a very tough matchup. If the Buckeyes survive their trip to the Phog, they will keep up their #2 with a ranking as they will devour cupcakes South Carolina Upstate, South Carolina, LaMar, and Miami of Ohio. Ohio State hosts 7-0 Northwestern on 12/28, but that game will take place after the last polls before the UK/UL game are released. Even if Northwestern wins, it will not have an effect on the polls.
#3 SYRACUSE
Syracuse has an interesting schedule on the horizon. They play no ranked teams this year , but face some tough mid majors and 5-2 North Carolina State. The Cuse play 5-1 Marshall, 4-2 George Washington, and 9-0 Tulane. Bucknell is also on the schedule. Only North Carolina State is on the road. Even though Syracuse is not playing cupcakes, it is unlikely that they stumble and get upset.
#4 LOUISVILLE
For all of this to be a valid argument, Louisville has to win all of their games and they actually have a December 21 matchup against #21 Memphis. Memphis was a preseason top ten team, so that would be a pretty good test. Aside from that, Louisville has cupcakes IUPUI, Farleigh Dickinson, and a bad WKU team. Charleston at 7-1 will give an interesting test on 12/20, and Charleston has a history of the occasional upset. Georgetown will provide a challenge as well but as that game is on 12/28, it will not have an effect on the polls.
So is a #1 Kentucky versus #2 Louisville matchup on December 31 possible? It’s possible, but not likely. The most likely scenario is #1 Kentucky versus #4 Louisville, although I think Memphis has a good shot at spoiling that top five showdown. But if things go at planned, two Rupp Arena wins against top five opponents is going to be pretty good momentum for the SEC part of the schedule.