GAME 8
DECEMBER 3, 2011 – 12:00 PM
#5 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (6-1)
RUPP ARENA – LEXINGTON, KY
TV – CBS
NORTH CAROLINA LEADS SERIES 22-12
RECENT MEETINGS
3/27/2011: KENTUCKY 76 North Carolina 69
12/4/2010: North Carolina 75 KENTUCKY 73
12/5/2009: KENTUCKY 68 North Carolina 66
11/18/2008: North Carolina 77 KENTUCKY 58
12/1/2007: North Carolina 86 KENTUCKY 77
Saturday’s game will mark the fourth time in the last two years that Kentucky and North Carolina have faced off, and the Wildcats have won two of the three games in the John Calipari era. Kentucky’s win in 2009 broke a string of five straight UNC wins. Saturday’s game is also the third time in the last six meetings that one of the teams come into the game as the number one team in the country. Although UNC has a 22-12 lead overall, the last ten years have been almost even, with UNC holding a 6-4 advantage.
This is the second straight game against a top ten opponent for the Tar Heels. The defeated #7 Wisconsin 60-57 on Wednesday night. It may have been a costly win, as their top 3-point shooter, freshman guard PJ Hairston, suffered a wrist injury in the game and presumably will not play on Saturday. There were also questions about the health of Harrison Barnes, but Barnes scored 20 points against Wisconsin and would seem to be close to full health. Let’s take a look at the Tar Heels.
PROBABLE STARTERS
#5 – G – KENDALL MARSHALL – SO – 6’4, 195
4.7 PPG, 10.3 APG, 2.9 RPG
#1 – G – DEXTER STRICKLAND – JR – 6’3, 180
8.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.3 APG
#40 – F – HARRISON BARNES – SO – 6’8, 215
17.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 0.9 APG
#31 – F – JOHN HENSON – JR – 6’11, 220
14.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 2.0 APG
#44 – F – TYLER ZELLER – SR – 7’0, 250
13.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 0.3 APG
THE BENCH
#35 – G – REGGIE BULLOCK – JR – 6’7, 205
7.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 0.9 APG
#43 – F – JAMES McADOO – FR – 6’9, 220
5.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 0.4 APG
#24 – G – JUSTIN WATTS – SR – 6’5, 210
1.1 PPG, 0.7 RPG, 0.0 APG
NATIONAL STAT RANKINGS
POINTS PER GAME:
NORTH CAROLINA 84.0 (14th)
KENTUCKY 83.7 (15th)
REBOUNDS PER GAME
KENTUCKY 44.3 (2nd)
NORTH CAROLINA 42.3 (10th)
ASSISTS PER GAME
NORTH CAROLINA 19.1 (9th)
KENTUCKY 16.3 (33rd)
FG PERCENTAGE
KENTUCKY: 49.6% (17th)
NORTH CAROLINA: 49.3% (20th)
3-PT SHOOTING
NORTH CAROLINA 37-90 (41.1%)
KENTUCKY 42-106 (39.6%)
As you can see, this game will be about as statistically even as a game can be. I know that the big three of Barnes, Henson, and Zeller get most of the attention for UNC, but it is PG Kendall Marshall that runs this team. Marshall is one of the top ball handlers in the country and has a stellar 3.78 A/TO ratio. Even against a very tough Wisconsin team, Marshall had 7 assists versus 4 turnovers. I would give Marshall the advantage over Marquis Teague as a PG, but as a whole, I think Kentucky is a much better passing team. For the season, UNC has a 1.48 A/TO ratio as a team compared to Kentucky’s 1.25. All of Kentucky’s front court are pretty good passers, which is one big advantage Kentucky has over the Tar Heels. Kentucky does not need Teague to carry the team on his back, for UNC, it is a necessity that Marshall be on his game. Doron Lamb and Darius Miller are more than capable of playing point for this team.
Most of the scoring on the Tar Heels goes through the big three where Kentucky has seven players that can score in double digits. In addition, the loss of Hairston will hurt the Tar Heels more than you think as he was averaging 8.3 points a game and was hitting 45.2% from beyond the 3-point line. Hairston was instant offense off the bench as he was averaging just 12 minutes a game. Without him, the Tar Heels do not have that spark whereas Kentucky has a couple of players that can score a ton of points off the bench. That leaves just Reggie Bullock as the main 3-point threat and he is hitting 44% of his treys. Harrison Barnes was third in 3-pointers made and he hits 38.9% on the year. Neither Zeller or Henson venture much past the 10-15 foot mark and do their scoring inside. Henson is the most complete player on this team (I like him more than Barnes) and he is by the far their best defender in the post. Freshman James McAdoo is also a banger and gives the Tar Heels front court depth.
I know that UNC is touted as having the best front court in the nation but in reality, Kentucky is not far behind. Zeller and Barnes can play soft at times and this will be a true coming out party for the new and improved Terrence Jones and the CBS viewing audience gets to meet Anthony Davis. Kentucky just has a lot more depth and versatility than the Tar Heels this year. No other team in the country can bring a player like Darius Miller/Michael Kidd-Gilchrist off the bench and Kyle Wiltjer’s skill set presents a different challenge. Even overlooked Eloy Vargas is averaging 4 rebounds a game and he plays just 9 minutes a game. After North Carolina’s big three, no one is averaging four boards a game.
And that is what sets this Kentucky team apart. Their guards can rebound, Their big men can pass. And every player is capable of throwing up 20 points a game. Don’t get me wrong. North Carolina is by far the best team Kentucky will face until April, but I just like Kentucky’s matchups. Kentucky has too many weapons and I think UK is a bit better defensively than the Tar Heels. UK is averaging 11 blocks and 8 steals a game while UNC is averaging 7 steals and 5 blocks a game. Just by the numbers, that is seven more possessions that Kentucky’s defense impacts a game and in a game like this, that will be a key. Kentucky wins 73-67.