It’s never too early to start hyping the next “Game of the Century” which is now officially less than two weeks away when the #1 North Carolina Tar Heels invade Rupp Arena to take on the #2 Kentucky Wildcats. Both teams have breezed through the early part of their schedules with Kentucky knocking off a ranked team in Kansas and the Tar Heels disposing of traditional power Michigan State. Since both teams have a few games under their belts, let’s take a look at how the season has progressed for both and some possible storylines.
SCORING
Both teams have several players that are capable of throwing in 20 points on any given game. Through four games, North Carolina has four players averaging double digits, led by the big two of Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes with 17.3 apiece. John Henson is close behind with 16.7 and Dexter Strickland is scoring 10 points a game. The luxury of such a solid lineup is that PG Kendall Marshall does not have to score. He is really struggling from the field this year and is averaging just 4.3 a game, but any points from Marshall is a luxury.
All of Kentucky’s starters are averaging in double digits this season. Doron Lamb leads with 16.5, followed by Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at 12.8 and 12.3. Terrence Jones is averaging 11, while Marquis Teague is at 10.8 and Kyle Wiltjer is bringing in 9 a game off the bench. Senior Darius Miller will not fill it up every night, but he can hurt you on any given night, and he is averaging 6.5.
PASSING THE BALL
Kendall Marshall has amazed this year and has 28 assists against just 8 turnovers. It’s obvious that he is the heart and soul that keep the Tar Heels clicking. Dexter Strickland is also having a good year with the rock as he has 12 assists against just four turnovers on the season. After those two, the Tar Heels are not a great passing team. Their front court of Zeller, Barnes, and Henson have just 9 assists versus 22 turnovers.
On the other hand, Kentucky freshman PG Marquis Teague has struggled in his first four games with 11 assists versus 18 turnovers. It’s my opinion that Teague is trying to do too much and needs to slow it down a bit. Teague gets a lot of support from his team mates. Both Doron Lamb and Darius Miller have been stellar handling the ball this season . Lamb has 11 assists versus 2 turnovers and Miller has 18 assists against 7 turnovers. Kentucky’s starting front court of Kidd-Gilchrist, Jones, and Davis have 22 assists versus 26 turnovers. Even Kyle Wiltjer has a nice passing touch and is even in the assist/turnover game.
MANO-A-MANO
The game will probably be decided by the front courts. Both teams have three potential NBA players starting, although North Carolina has the edge in experience. The combination of Zeller-Barnes-Henson are averaging 24.6 rebounds a game and 5.7 blocks a game. Kentucky’s trio of Kidd-Gilchrist, Jones, and Davis are averaging 22.75 rebounds a game and 8 blocks a game.
For the season, UNC is averaging 45.7 rebounds per game and giving up 38.3. Kentucky is averaging 43.2 and giving up 35. Numbers wise, this is pretty much a draw. I think that North Carolina is a lot more physical than Kentucky now and that would seem to give UNC an edge. When you consider that outside the big three though, Kentucky has other players that can rebound. Eloy Vargas is averaging 5 boards a game and Doron Lamb 4. Miller is usually a very consistent rebounder and he has 3.8 a game. After North Carolina’s big three, only James McAdoo and Dexter Strickland are above 3.o boards a game.
SHOOTING
Both teams can shoot the lights out but as of now, Kentucky appears to be the better shooting team. Kentucky is hitting 53.4% of their shots while UNC is hitting at an even 50% clip. Granted, any division one coach will take those percentages. Thanks to Doron Lamb, Kentucky is the better 3-point team now, hitting 43.1% of their treys. The Tar Heels are hitting them at a 28.9% clip. PJ Hairston is hitting 4-10 for 40% for UNC while Doron Lamb is blazing at 11-21. Darius Miller has not found his 3-point range yet, hitting 1-8 or Kentucky’s numbers would be better.
Interestingly enough, both teams are really struggling from the FT line. Kentucky has hit just 63.3% while UNC has hit 62.9%
SCHEDULES
In my opinion, Kentucky has played the tougher schedule so far. They have defeated #15 ranked Kansas and Old Dominion, who has been historically a very tough mid major. UNC beat a not very good Michigan State and a couple of real cupcakes.
At this point, there is a lot of basketball to be played before Kentucky and North Carolina square off. Kentucky needs to have a few games to calm Marquis Teague down and to get Darius Miller better acclimated into the game. North Carolina has the luxury of experience, but that edge seems to diminish with every game Kentucky has together. The numbers would indicate that these teams are a lot closer than pollsters would have you believe and this is truly shaping up to be a game of the century.