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GAME 10
NOVEMBER 12, 2011 – 12:21 PM
VANDERBILT COMMODORES 4-5 (1-5)
Vanderbilt Stadium – Nashville, TN
TV – SEC NETWORK
SERIES HISTORY
KENTUCKY LEADS 41-32-4
RECENT GAMES
11/13/2010: KENTUCKY 38 Vanderbilt 20
11/14/2009: KENTUCKY 24 Vanderbilt 13
11/15/2008: Vanderbilt 31 KENTUCKY 24
11/10/2007: KENTUCKY 27 Vanderbilt 20
11/11/2006: KENTUCKY 38 Vanderbilt 26
The Cats will look to build on their first SEC win as they hit the road to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville this Saturday. A win will bring UK to within one game of clinching the program’s sixth consecutive bowl season, while a loss would leave their record at 4-6 likely end any dreams of playing in the postseason. Vandy is also in a must win situation, as a loss would also put them at 4-6 with their next two games against Tennessee( whom they’ve beat once in the past 30 years) and Wake Forest.
First year coach James Franklin has the Commodores playing their best football since their bowl season of 2007, yet it does nbot reflect in the record. Vandy has a string of heartbreaking losses to SEC powers like Georgia (33-28), Arkansas (31-28) and Florida (26-21). Alas, Vandy has played very well, but they have not been able to get a signature win for their season yet.
Here’s what to look for from Vandy:
Offensive National Ranks:
Ranks 82nd with 24.8 points per game and 103rd in total offense with 326 yards per game.
Rushing offense ranks 60th with 157 yards per game.
Passing offense ranks 106th with 168 yards per game.
Defensive National Ranks:
Scoring defense ranks 40th while only allowing 23 points per game and 30th in total defense allowing 340 yards per game
Rushing defense ranks 44th allowing 133 yards per game.
Pass defense ranks No 42 allowing 207 yards per game
Various Facts:
Don’t read too much into Vandy’s poor offensive stats. Larry Smith began the year as the Commodores starting QB, and during Smith’s starts, Vandy averaged 132.5 passing yards per game. Now with Jordan Rodgers as the starter, the Commodores have averaged 241 yards per game in their last three contests, including near-wins against Arkansas and Florida.
Vanderbilt has 18 sacks on the season, so protection this week will be key. UK’s offensive line has found more consistency as of late, and are the healthiest they’ve been all year, so we should see some great battles in the trenches.
Vandy ranks 5th in the nation in interceptions with 15 total and will be looking to take advantage of a true freshman QB in Max Smith. UK has to establish the running game to keep the pressure off Smith, because if he has to throw it as many times as he has the past two games(34 att. per game), Vandy’s DB’s will make UK pay.
Vandy has six wide receivers with 10 or more receptions, so there is no single receiver UK can focus coverage on.
Players to Watch for
Offense:
QB Jordan Rodgers
The younger brother of Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Jordan has become the full-time starter for Vandy and has improved significantly in each of his starts. Rodgers has completed 34-55 pass attempts for 537 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games against Arkansas and Florida who rank 40th and 20th in scoring defense. He’s also a threat to run, as he’s averaged 66 ypg over the last four games and scored four times in the past three games. His longest run of the year is 40 yards, so UK will have to play very discipline on defense and hope they can get consistent pressure from their front four and have a LB spy on Rodgers.
RB Zach Stacey
In Rodgers’ first two starts against Army and Arkansas, Stacy ran for a combined 326 yards and four touchdowns. He rushed for 97 yards against Georgia and 128 yards against Arkansas. On the season he is averaging 6.87 yards per carry. UK will have to maintain gap discipline to give their LB’s a chance to stop both Stacey and Rodgers from having a field day running the ball.
Defense:
DL Tim Fugger
The talented DE is the team leader in sacks with five. He’s also second on the team in tackles-for-loss with 11 stops. UK will have to keep him blocked consistently, because he’s strong enough to wrap up RB’s in the backfield, and fast enough to come off the edge and keep consistent pressure on opposing QB’s. Blocking him should be UK’s first priority while establishing their offense.
CB Casey Hayward
The senior DB leads the Commodores with five interceptions on the year, part of a Vanderbilt secondary that has 15 interceptions. He’s an exceptional athlete, and Vandy will occasionally play him on offense on end-arounds, where he is averaging 14.3 per rush. He’ll likely be matched up with La’Rod King, who will have to use his 6-5/200 lb frame to out muscle Hayward, who is a mere 5-11/188 lb.
Prediction:
Jason Marcum: UK has struggled royally against spread offenses over the years, and over the past few games, Vandy has run the spread very effectively. The Commodores are coming off tough losses to Arkansas and Florida, and will be looking to get their fifth win in front of their home crowd and need only one more to become bowl eligible. Rodgers has a field day throwing the ball as UK focuses on stopping the run. Max Smith has a difficult time throwing against Vandy’s secondary, and UK comes away from Nashville with a tough loss. Vandy wins 27-21
Paul Jordan: I have to disagree with Jason. I really like the way Kentucky offense has played the last six quarters under Max Smith and the fact is, Kentucky now has two receiving targets and can open up the offense with Matt Roark and LaRod King. In addition, Coshik Williams is running as well as any Kentucky ballhandler this year and I would not be surprised to see him catch a few passes and try to make something happen. I am encouraged by how the defense from seven has played lately and they should be able to shut down the running game and short passing game and force Rodgers into a couple of turnovers playing deep. It’s a stretch to trust the defensive secondary, but in reality, Kentucky has the better team if you go by pure talent and this week it all comes together. Kentucky 27 Vanderbilt 17.