Is it way too early to look ahead to the 2012 football season? Sure, it probably is. But let’s be honest with ourselves here. The 2011 Wildcats are a long shot to make it to a bowl and this season as a whole has been largely disappointing. As bad as Kentucky has played at times, the emergence of quarterback Maxwell Smith has been a bright spot over the past few weeks and while he hasn’t resembled a young Peyton Manning just yet, he has shown promise. All of his preparation culminated in a start against Ole Miss where Smith was able to complete 19 of 36 passes for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns in a performance that also netted him the Freshman of the Week award in the SEC. To compare, junior Morgan Newton’s best game this season (outside of a victory over FCS-level Jacksonville State) was in a loss to Louisville where he completed 27 of 41 attempts for 255 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest difference? Smith was only sacked once against Ole Miss and Newton was dropped six times against Louisville. Smith Just doesn’t give up the negative plays Newton does. It would be a major surprise to see Morgan Newton start another game for Kentucky in 2011 barring an injury to Maxwell Smith.
So now it’s time to fast forward a little bit. Once again, it looks like Kentucky will have another quarterback controversy this offseason, and it is likely to be one for the ages. The candidates are as follows:
#11 – Maxwell Smith – SO – 6’4 / 220 – Granada Hills, CA
As the likely favorite to win the starting job, Smith will have his work cut out for him. He has looked good at times (see Mississippi State and Ole Miss) and has looked beyond bad at others (see LSU and South Carolina). With what will presumably be four SEC starts under his belt, he will have a slight upper hand as long as he continues to play as well as he has over the last two weeks. The unknowns surrounding Smith are still there though. He did not perform well against top competition and will have to prove he can at least compete against the Floridas and Georgias of the schedule. Regardless, Smith’s presence has seemed to spark the team and they appear to rally behind him.
#12 – Morgan Newton – SR – 6’4 / 235 – Indianapolis, IN
Losing a starting job is tough for a player to swallow, but there is little doubt that Newton will be back in the mix this offseason. His play this year has left a lot to be desired, but no one can argue that he has all the physical tools a team looks for in a quarterback. If Newton can use his demotion as motivation to improve himself and become a more complete and accurate passer, he could still reclaim the starting job for his senior year. If he cannot pull himself together, there is a very real chance he could transfer for an opportunity to play. It will really be up to Newton. If he comes out and refocuses himself to live up to his hype as a prep player, he will be formidable. If he gives up and quits, he will go down as one of the biggest recruiting busts ever at Kentucky. A lot of fans will give up on Newton, but he has all the talent in the world if he can pull it all together.
#17 – Jacob Russell – SO – 6’4 / 223 – Lawrenceburg, KY
While he’s certainly going to be the dark horse in the quarterback competition, fans would be wise to remember his name. Every other quarterback on the roster came or will come to Kentucky with more fanfare, but Russell is a tough competitor. He was a multi-sport star in high school and is a much better athlete than most fans realize. Maybe the biggest factor in his favor is his popularity on the team. Many of the players have spoken highly of his abilities and personality and that can be a huge boost for a young quarterback. No one is arguing that Russell will be, at best, a long shot to win the job but he’s someone to keep an eye on.
#7 – Bookie Cobbins – FR(RS) – 6’0 / 187 – New Orleans, LA
There seems to be a weekly flirtation with the coaching staff saying that they’re debating playing Cobbins and forgoing his redshirt season. Now that Kentucky is down to their final three games though, it would probably take a major injury for him to play this season. Heading into 2012, Cobbins will have a steep hill to climb to win the starting quarterback job. On top of only standing at six feet tall, Cobbins is really much more of a natural scrambler than Kentucky has had recently and isn’t an ideal fit for the pro-style offense the Wildcats run. If the staff were to start Bookie, the entire offense would need to be reworked to fit his skill-set.
#8 – Patrick Towles – FR – 6’5 / 235 – Ft. Thomas, KY
There has probably not been a Kentucky high school player that has UK fans in such a state of anticipation since Tim Couch signed with the Wildcats over a decade ago. Towles has it all. On top of a big-time arm and pedigree, he’s got the body of a defensive end and can really run for a player his size. He’s such a complete athlete, that some recruiting services have reclassified his position to “Athlete” instead of just listing him as a quarterback. Towles is learning from Jared Lorenzon and Chris Collinsworth and is coming from one of the best high school programs in Kentucky in Highlands High School. It’s tough to call someone a can’t-miss prospect anymore, but Towles appears to be pretty close. The question marks for him are going to be his level of preparedness to play when he arrives in Lexington this summer. Highlands does not allow players to graduate in December, so he will not be able to go through spring practice with the team. Towles ability to overcome his late start will likely be the difference in his candidacy for the starting position.
So what do I think?
I believe that Towles will redshirt in his first year in Lexington. He has a ceiling that is higher than any player on the UK roster, but he will not be joining the team until the summer, and missing spring practice will probably be too much to overcome as a true freshman. I do fully expect Towles to be in the mix to start as a redshirt freshman though. I think that Bookie Cobbins will put up a fight during the offseason, but will ultimately be moved to receiver. He’s just too dynamic of a playmaker to be sitting on the sidelines any longer and could be an impact player right away at receiver. Tyler Russell has a great story and seems like a great guy, but I think the hill he will have to climb to start is just too steep. If Newton loses the starting battle and decides to transfer, Russell could certainly be the backup, but I just don’t see him beating out Smith, Newton, or probably even Towles for that matter. So really, it is looking like a two man race to me.
Sometimes the immeasurable things are what sets a player apart in a competition like this one. Morgan Newton will be an experienced senior and has every measurable you could want in a quarterback, but Maxwell Smith has all of the intangibles. After the win was sealed up on Saturday, cameras caught Smith running up and down the sidelines hugging his teammates and you could see that they believe in him. That’s the deciding factor for me. This team really does look like it plays harder for Smith than it does Newton and it becomes more obvious with every snap. I’m not sure what is causing this, but it will be tough for Newton to overcome. I believe we will see a completely revamped Morgan Newton this offseason, but I just don’t think he can overtake what Smith is putting together. All that said, Newton is still a talented player and I believe that he will still be used as a change
of pace player at times similar to how LSU is utilizing Jordan Jefferson. So, I think that the offseason see’s the depth chart unroll like this.
Maxwell Smith – Starter
Morgan Newton – Second string/primary backup
Jacob Russell – Third string
Bookie Cobbins – Wide Receiver
Patrick Towles – Redshirt
Keep in mind that there is still plenty of time for things to change. New recruits could be added and current players could be injured or could elect to leave the program. But as it stands today, the 2012 competition for the starting quarterback job is looking like it will be one of the most heated positional competitions that the Kentucky football team has seen in a long time, if not ever.
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