Kentucky Wildcat Football Preview – Know Your Enemy: Mississippi State Bulldogs

GAME 8

OCTOBER 29, 2011 –  7:00 PM

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS   3-4  (0-4)

COMMONWEALTH STADIUM – LEXINGTON, KY

TV – FOX SPORTS SOUTH

KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES  21-17

LAST 5 MEETINGS:

10/30/2010:  Mississippi State  24  KENTUCKY  17

10/31/2009:  Mississippi State  31  KENTUCKY  24

11/1/2008:  KENTUCKY  14  Mississippi State  13

10/27/2007:  Mississippi State  31  KENTUCKY  14

10/28/2006:  KENTUCKY  34  Mississippi State  31

Kentucky will square off with the Mississippi Sate Bulldogs this weekend in a game that will help define the rest of the Cats’s season. A win puts the Cats back on track to get to six wins and become bowl eligible for the sixth consecutive year. A loss puts UK at 3-5 and 0-4 in the SEC, needing to get three wins from Vandy, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Tennessee, who UK went 1-3 against last year.  The game is also a must win for the Bulldogs, who are coming off a 9-4 season last year and a preseason Top 25 ranking this year.  To date, the Bulldogs are winless in the SEC which makes you wonder if last year was a fluke.  Regardless, MSU’s Dan Mullen is still one of the top offensive minds in the country.  This game is historically close, so let’s take a look at MSU and some notable stats for the Bulldogs.

Scoring offense ranks No 85 with 24 PPG.

Rushing offense ranks No 38 with 180 YPG.

Passing offense ranks No 93 with 196 YPG.

Total offense ranks No 75 with 376 YPG.

Wins against Memphis, Louisiana Tech and UAB

Losses against Auburn, LSU, Georgia and South Carolina

Rush defense ranks No 62 with 152 YPG.

Passing defense ranks No 24 with 188 YPG.

Total defense ranks No 32 with 340 YPG.

OFFENSE

The QB’s: Tyler Russell and Chris Relf

MSU has been switching between the two QB’s for much of the year. Relf came into the year as the starter. He is the best runner and runs the option very well, and can pull it back and throw it down field when MSU’s offense is running efficiently. When teams are able to force Relf to try and beat them, that is when MSU’s offense has struggled, as Relf is not a consistent thrower. Relf has struggled for much of the season and Tyler Russell was named the starter for the South Carolina game.  Russell was not an immediate shot in the arm as he went 11-29 for 165 yards with a TD vs 2 picks.  I’m not sure how much Chris Relf we will see as Russell has played the last six quarters now, but don’t be surprised to see Relf take some snaps.  

RB Vick Ballard
The senior RB has been the workhorse for the Bulldogs, carrying the ball 105 times for 598 yards and 5 TD’s. Stopping Ballard will be the key to the game, as MSU likes to run the ball in small gains and eat up clock to account for their subpar defense. He doesn’t have break away speed, but he is a load to bring down. He is constantly getting hit at the line-of-scrimmage, due to a weak o-line, and still manages to plow forward for 5-6 yard gains. UK has to wrap him up at the point of contact and not allow him to chug out these 5-6 yard runs, because those add up to long drives and less opportunities for UK’s inept offense to develop any rhythm.

DEFENSE

DL Fletcher Cox
The junior DL has been the Bulldog’s most productive d-lineman, leading the team in tackles-for-loss with 5.5, while also posting two sacks and 29 tackles from his defensive tackle spot. He’s constantly in opponent’s backfield and if UK wants to have any running game, it will start by keeping a hat on Cox consistently.

CB Johnthan Banks
The junior CB is the Bulldog’s best playmaker on defense thus far. He’s a typical ball-hawk while in coverage, snagging 5 interceptions on the year which leads the team. He’s also not afraid to attack his opponents backfield, getting 41 tackles, tw
o being for a loss, and even getting a sack on the year, so he can be used in a multitude of ways and the Cats will have to make note of where Banks is on the field at all times.

FS  Nickoe Whitley
Whitley is not listed as a starter, but he makes the most of his time on the field as he has four interceptions on the season.  Whitley is active all over the field and also has a couple of tackles for losses on the year. 

PREDICTIONS: 

Jason Marcum:  Based on MSU’s lack of quality wins and almost suffering an embarrassing home loss to Louisiana Tech, the Bulldogs clearly aren’t as talented as their preseason top 25 ranking suggested. They have been more competitive in the SEC, which UK hasn’t shown it can do. This will be a game for three quarters, but a heavy rushing attack led by Vic Ballard will have Cat’s defense wore down by the time the fourth quarter roles around. The Bulldog’s will take control of the game and the clock to run away with the game and send the Cats to an 0-4 SEC record.  MSU wins 30-20.

Paul Jordan:  On paper, this should be a fairly easy MSU win as the Bulldogs still have top 25 talent, but the play on the field has not transpired that way.  The Bulldogs are a confusing team as they are the only team to hold LSU under 20 points and lost to LSURelf is struggling.  I look for Kentucky to build off of last weeks game, and run the ball well and try to put together some long drives.  Call me “wearing the Big Blue glasses”, but Kentucky revives their season with a 24-21 win.

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