Kentucky Wildcat Basketball – The weak draft may make it hard for Jones and Knight to stay … despite the threat of a lockout

This off season is definitely an odd off season for college basketball season.  Usually at this time, there was a lot more news about which players would be making themselves eligible for the NBA Draft, but this year, the news seems slowed to a trickle.  We learned yesterday that there was no chance that Kemba Walker would return to UConn and Butler’s Shelvin Mack will test the waters without hiring an agent.  Still, there are plenty of top players out there, including Kentucky’s Terrence Jones and Brandon Knight who have not tipped their hand either way.

What gives?

First, the elephant in the room is the status of the NBA lockout.  Some players may opt to stay in school another year rather than risk spend an interminable amount of time working out on their own and watching their ex-teammates continue the college season.  Kentucky’s John Calipari seems to think that the possible lockout will be a long one and can impact the players decision on whether to enter the draft:

"“I think it will but to what level, I don’t know,” Calipari said. “I think if a young man is solidly in the lottery and in a good position, he probably needs to put his name in the draft and stay. If he’s not solidly in the lottery or higher, you have to be careful because this lockout could be awhile. Understand, you don’t get paid playing professional basketball unless you’re playing games. They pay you when the season starts. They don’t pay you in the summers so players that are in the draft with a lockout won’t be paid until the season starts. There could be an agent fronting them money, but it’s a loan. It’s not a gift, but rather money that they’ll have to pay back when the season begins. I don’t think the thing will be all year, but I think it’s going to be an extended lockout, longer than you think. It’s going to be a tough road for those guys that aren’t playing and have never been in the NBA. Yes, I will say that it will play a role.”"

Calipari also added that staying an extra year in school can benefit the freshmen that decide to stay because the new NBA agreement may include a provision that incoming freshmen may not be eligible for next year’s draft and have to stay two years.  This will provide a “nice window” for say a Jones or Knight as they would not have to compete with next year’s freshmen for NBA draft status:

"“The other thing that may happen is the NBA may go to two years that you have to sit out,” Calipari said. “Well, the young people that stay in this class then have a nice window between the kids that have left and the kids that are coming in who can’t be in the draft. That’s not a done deal, but I think they’ll either stay where they’re at with one year or move it to two years, which is what the owners would rather have.”"

The one thing that may prompt players to jump into the draft, maybe even at the last minute, will be the fact that this is going to be a weak draft.  Jared Sullinger was widely expected to be the top draft pick overall but it looks as if he is remaining at Ohio State.  Then Baylor’s perry Jones name was tossed about as a possible top pick, but he too is staying.  As is Tyler Henson and John Henson of North Carolina.  And it looks like Harrison Barnes may join them.

All of this makes the decision a lot harder for players like Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones.  While I feel they could benefit with another year in college, the fact that so many underclassmen are staying in school, make it even more tempting to bolt to the NBA, where they can move into a high to mid lottery pick by attrition.

As of right now, Chad Ford at ESPN has released his latest mock draft and now three Kentucky players have moved into the top ten.  Enes Kanter is at #4, while Brandon Knight is at #8 and Terrence Jones comes in at #10.  It does not take a mathematician to see what happens say two or three big name underclassmen decide to forgo the NBA draft.

It’s going to be a nervous 12 days for Wildcat fans to see how this plays out.

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