WBN Kentucky Wildcat's Basketball Roundtable: So, now what's next?
By Paul Jordan
OK. So John Calipari went 35-3 in his first season at Kentucky and made the Final Four in his second. It’s good …. but what is in store for sason trey? Now that the basketball season is over, the WBN Roundtable is back in full swing and I asked our panel some questions about what is next for John Calipari and his Wildcats. Joining me on the panel this week is Greg Edwards of the WBN, Glenn Logan and Ken Howlett of A Sea of Blue and Brian Eldridge. Let’s get right to the panel:
How big of an impact do you see the possible NBA lockout having on the decisions for the players this year?
Greg Edwards: I think the prospect of a lockout looms large over these players’ decisions, unless the union allows the contracts to be negotiated and signed quickly and placed in force. But for a player to stay in the draft on the hope of a possible up front payment is a risky proposition.
Ken Howlett: I really have no idea. With the current NBA collective bargaining agreement due to expire at the end of June, and the last day for players to pull their names out of the draft the first week of June, the players are in a very difficult position. My friend BC Thomas made a good point on this topic the other day, though, by saying that the upper echelon players will be able to count on agents to “float” them cash to hold them over until next year, but those not sure-fire top-15-20 picks might not be able to count on that luxury. I think the real question is this: What is John Calipari telling the players? Because I would think his guys will do what it is he says is best for them individually. And what he’s telling them, once again, I have no idea. It’s an interesting time, with a lot at stake. I’ll be watching and waiting just like everyone else to see how this plays out.
Brian Eldridge: I think the lockout will effect all of the players’ decisions. On the other hand, if they are good enough and they are likely highly rated players, the agents will keep them paid for the duration of the lockout.
Glenn Logan: I think it could have a major impact. If the players see the NBA as likely to be unable to provide a paycheck for an indeterminate amount of time, it will definitely dissuade many, if not all, from declaring for the draft. Better a year of free lunches in the cafeteria and the chance to win a national championship than wondering when your signing bonus will ever arrive, and more importantly, what number will be on the face of the check. Not only will the NBA lockout affect when the new players get paid, the amount of said payments are a major bone of contention.
Paul Jordan: I don’t see how it can NOT have an impact. Sure, the agents will provide some seed money and keep the top players afloat, but they are not going to give them enough to buy a house for their family or really help their families like some players want the NBA to do. And what better way to boost your stock than by winning a national title or by gaining a final four. I am sure the endorsements and shoe money will be enough to live comfortable for most players, but what is the appeal of sitting for a season while your former teammates are winning a title?
What players, if any, do you see heading to the NBA. What are the percentages of leaving for Jones, Knight, Lamb, and Liggins?
Greg Edwards: Knight is probably 70-30 go at this point, and so is Jones. Lamb, to me is a 40-60 swing in the other direction, and Liggins is about a 15% of leaving. I think he does wonders for his draft stock by being one of next year’s superstars.
Ken Howlett: Of course the uncertainty of the 2011-2012 NBA season impacts one’s thinking on the matter, but my gut tells me Terrence Jones is gone; Brandon Knight, 75% he leaves, and Liggins, Miller, and Lamb stay.
Brian Eldridge: I don’t see Liggins going pro, unless he gets excellent reviews from the league. However with a child and no real income, I couldn’t blame him for going and even playing in Europe to earn money for his family. I think you’ll see both Knight and Jones go pro. They could all use more seasoning at the college level, but you can’t blame them for getting paid to practice against the best in the pros.
Glenn Logan:
Player——No lockout——Lockout
Knight——70/30———-30/70
Jones——90/10——–50/50
Liggins—-50/50——-10/90
Lamb——-40/60——-0/100
Paul Jordan: Ask me on any given day and I alternate whether Knight or Jones will leave. I can see a scenario where both stay or both go. As for Liggins and Miller, I think they should enter the draft to stalk to the teams and see what they need to improve upon, like Patterson did after his sophomore year. I don’t see either of them leaving though. I think Lamb will stay. His dad seems to be indicating that is best. If pressed, I say that Knight leaves and Jones stay. For now. Like I said, it changes every day.
Do you see any transfers or players leaving?
Greg Edwards: I think that if there are any transfers it will be a last minute deal and be incoming not outgoing.
Ken Howlett: I don’t foresee anyone transferring.
Brian Eldridge: I don’t expect any transfers. At one point I thought both Hood and Poole may be on the way out, but I don’t expect that now. Both of them have another chance next year to carve out some minutes
Glenn Logan:&nbs
p; No. All of the players who would seem likely to transfer have already foreclosed that possibility.
Paul Jordan: I see everyone staying as well.
Realistically, what are your expectation for next season?
Greg Edwards: For next season, the sky is the limit. This year changed the rules. You can win with Freshmen in key roles, as long as you have the leadership around to keep them upright when it gets tough. Now that everyone knows it can be done, they will not hesitate to try it.
Ken Howlett: If Jones and Knight leave, I think UK will still be a top-10, maybe top-5 team. If Knight returns he’ll move over to the “2” guard, with Marquis Teague playing the “1,” and if that happens, watch out world. The ‘Cats should once again challenge for the title, and in all likelihood be the favorite. Also, if Cal reels in a big man who’s ready for prime time next season (read: Stan Simpson), then that elevates Kentucky to elite status regardless of what Jones and Knight choose to do, at least in my view.
Brian Eldridge: As far as expectations for next season, it’s too early. If any of the players considering going pro stick around, odds go up for UK to head back to the final four. But you never know how freshmen will adjust to the college game.
Ken Howlett: I will be bitterly disappointed if we do not bring home a national championship next year if everyone returns, or if all but Harrellson and one other (Jones or Knight) return. This team will be the most powerful college basketball team I have ever heard of. No less than three of Kentucky’s incoming freshmen would be lottery picks this year if they could enter the draft. That would theoretically put Kentucky with between five and seven first-round picks in 2012. If you can’t win it all with a team like that, maybe coaching is the issue. I temper that expectation with the reality that there are a couple of teams that could be almost as strong, especially North Carolina. But if we lose two or fewer players, including Harrellson, from this year’s team, I my expectations go straight to 1978/1996 levels.
Paul Jordan: I think it is a Final Four team even if Knight and Jones leave. Keeping Liggins and Lamb is a must however. I think that Calipari shut up all the critics who said you can not go to the Final Four with freshmen and a returning Liggins/Miller gives this team a solid nucleus. And this team knows how to win unlike the last two years which had o learn how. I think Kentucky is a preseason number one and the only team coming close will be the Tar Heels.
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