Kentucky Wildcat Basketball Preview – Know Your Enemy: North Carolina Tarheels
By Paul Jordan
GAME 37
MARCH 27, 2011 5:05 PM
NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS (29-7)
NCAA REGIONAL FINALS
PRUDENTIAL CENTER – NEWARK, NJ
TV – CBS
SERIES HISTORY
NORTH CAROLINA LEADS 22-11
RECENT GAMES
12/4/2010: UNC 75 KENTUCKY 73
12/5/2009: KENTUCKY 68 UNC 66
11/18/2008: UNC 77 KENTUCKY 58
12/1/2007: UNC 86 KENTUCKY 77
12/2/2006: UNC 75 KENTUCKY 63
Is anyone ready for the next stop on the Kentucky Wildcats redemption tour? Well if you are looking for an opponent that Kentucky “owes”, it really does not get much bigger than this. The Tar Heels own a 22-11 record against UK and have won six of the past seven matchups and they are 2-0 against Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament. Both of those losses were in regional finals.
The #5 Tar Heels beat the #3 Wildcats in the 1977 East Regional Finals 79-72. And the #4 Tar Heels routed the #2 Wildcats 74-61 in the 1995 SE Regional Finals. Now I really don’t have to tell you what the years 1978 and 1996 mean in Wildcat history, so that just sums up the 2012 title hope chances should the Heels win on Sunday. But let’s point out that this is the first regional final that UNC has been the higher rated team, so Kentucky needs to change some history.
It should be noted that this is the only time that the two teams have met twice in the same season. Both teams are totally different from that 75-73 North Carolina win some 30 games ago. For starters, Larry Drew II was still manning the point for the Heels and Kentucky was still waiting for Enes Kanter to walk through that locker room door. Josh Harrellson is also a much better player than he was then. In that game, Kentucky had four players foul out and North Carolina enjoyed taking 37 foul shots to just 21 for the Wildcats. As we saw against Ohio State, Kentucky is much better at playing with fouls than in that game.
STARTERS
#5 – G – KENDALL MARSHALL – FR 6’3 186
6.2 ppg, 6.2 apg, 2.1 rpg
#1 – G – DEXTER STRICKLAND – SO 6’3 180
7.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg
#40 – F – HARRISON BARNES – FR 6’7 215
15.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.4 apg
#31 – F – JOHN HENSON – SO 6’10 195
11.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 0.8 apg
#44 – F – TYLER ZELLER – JR 7’0 240
15.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 0.6 apg
BACK COURT
Kendall Marshall will be the second straight freshman PG that Kentucky has faced and Marshall was rated as the seventh best PG coming out of HS. Marshall was playing a lot better than Drew when Drew quit the team and Marshall is a great playmaker. Marshall has been on a roll with the assists lately as he has double digit assists in five of his last nine games and he has a stellar 2.49 A/TO ratio. Marshall also shoots 39.6% from beyond the arc, but scoring seems secondary to him in the NCAA as he has taken just 13 shots in the tournament. He is also solid defensively, but to be honest, I can not see him being peskier than Aaron Craft was last night. The development of Dexter Strickland has been a bit arrested this year. Strickland is good at attacking the basket, but can play out of control at times. He can put together some solid games, but then has some long spells where he really struggles. In 7 of the 10 games before the NCAA Tournament, Strickland went without a FG. Even with that stretch, he has hit 45.7% of his shots and he hits 25% of his treys, but has not taken a 3-point attempt in the last five games. His inconsistencies extends to his ball handling skills. Leslie McDonald comes off the bench, hits 38.6 of his treys and is averaging 7.1 points. Leslie has been trying to pick up the slack since Reggie Bullock was lost for the season, but is having a pretty dreadful tournament, hitting just 4 of his 20 shots. Justin Watts gets about 10 minutes a game, but is not as much a threat to score. Even with the loss of Bullock, he still gets just 2 points and 1.9 boards a game.
FRONT COURT
Harrison Barnes has really evolved since the first meeting between the two teams and we are finally seeing what all the fuss has been about. Barnes has been a beast lately, averaging 24 points a game over his last five games and is making a solid case for player of the tournament thus far. Barnes can hurt you from all over the court as he is a good offensive rebounder and he is hitting 34.9% of his three pointers. He also has picked up his defense in the tournament. The thing with Barnes is that he is going to bomb away all day long, even when his shots are not falling. He is hitting just 42.3% of his shots, so he will get his points whether it takes 20 shots or not. He is not that great a passer and can struggle with turnovers. John Henson had 13 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks in the first meeting at Chapel Heel, so of course he is a player that concerns me. He is very good around the basket both offensively and defensively and is averaging a double double. He hits 50% of his shots and is averaging 3.3 blocks a game. He is pretty effective on the offensive rebounders and while still a very poor free throw shooter, is actually pretty good down the clutch. Tyler Zeller was the Wildcat killer previously with 27 points, 11 rebound
s, and five blocks. The last five games, Zeller has averaged 22 points a game, but curiously just one double double in that span. Zeller will get about half his rebounds on the offensive side but you would think that he would average more than a block a game for a seven footer. Zeller is also a good foul shooter and gets a lot of points from the free throw line. Senior Justin Knox has really struggled scoring off the bench since January. He plays about 15 minutes a game now and averages 4.5 points and 3.2 rebounds. He’s still hitting his shots at a 53% clip however, but the problem is he does not shoot that much. His 6’9 frame will add more depth and five more fouls for UNC.
TEAM STAT COMPARISON
POINTS PER GAME
UNC 76.7 KENTUCKY 76.4
REBOUNDS PER GAME
UNC 42.5 KENTUCKY 38.1
ASSISTS PER GAME
UNC 15.3 KENTUCKY 12.7
FG %
KENTUCKY 46.2% UNC 45.1
3-PT %
KENTUCKY 39.5% UNC 33.2%
FT %
KENTUCKY 71.7% UNC 67.0%
OUTLOOK
We know that both teams are dramatically different from the first meeting which was 30 games ago. Marshall is a definite upgrade over Drew at the point and he makes the Tar Heels a much better team. And Marshall scores about twice as much as Drew was, so the Heels did not lose any scoring when that change was made. But there is one big difference in this game. North Carolina has lost two players since that first game: Larry Drew to desertion and Reggie Bullock to injury. So as a result, North Carolina has a eight man rotation and even that is deceiving since McDonald and Watts play 15 minutes a game and Watts plays less than 10.
Also, Kentucky has a few new players since then: Josh Harrellson, Darius Miller, and DeAnde Liggins. All three have improved their games about 100% since the first meeting and Kentucky has turned from strictly a freshman led team to a very solid team where all six players can carry the team and Eloy Vargas has improved dramatically.
Kentucky is a much better shooting team than the Tar Heels, but that is nbegated by the fact that the Tar Heels are the number one rebounding team in the country. Obviously Henson and Zeller are very good rebounders, but Josh Harrellson has played himself into the NBA. The key to this game will be Terrence Jones. Jones needs to have a double double night and stay out of foul trouble. Honestly, I do not think Jones is ready for the NBA and his stock has been slipping. He can change all of that the next three games, but we need to see the Terrence of old.
Both teams are playing their best ball of the season. North Carolina has won 12 of 13 and 17 of 19. Both of those losses were to Duke and UNC owns a win over the Blue Devils in that span. Kentucky has won nine in a row and 11 of their last 12 games. I think the fact that North Carolina is down to 8 players is a huge factor in this game. Yes, they have played very well with a short bench, but Kentucky has turned the 6 player team into an art form and have turned into “Team Clutch”. In my wildest dreams, I never imagined this team accomplishing the same thing as last years team: An Elite Eight Appearance. Right about now, Kentucky is looking more like a team of destiny. Kentucky 75 North Carolina 71
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