Kentucky Wildcat Basketball Preview – Know Your Enemy: Ohio State Buckeyes
By Paul Jordan
GAME 36
MARCH 25, 2011 – 9:45 PM
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES 34-2
NCAA SWEET 16
PRUDENTIAL CENTER – NEWARK, NJ
TV – CBS
SERIES HISTORY
KENTUCKY LEADS 10-8
NCAA MEETINGS
3/13/87 : OSU 91 KENTUCKY 77
3/16/1968: OSU 82 KENTUCKY 81
3/17/1962: OSU 74 KENTUCKY 64
3/18/1961: OSU 87 KENTUCKY 74
3/22/1945: OSU 45 KENTUCKY 37
In stark contrast to last year’s NCAA run, the Kentucky Wildcats come into this game a decided underdog. The Wildcats are facing the consensus number one seed in the tournament, the 334-2 Ohio State Buckeyes, and this will undoubtedly be the toughest game of Kentucky’s season. Being an underdog is a role that John Calipari relishes and no coach plays the disrespect card better than Calipari.
If not for Ohio State, Kentucky could very well have 8, 9, or even 10 NCAA titles. It has been documented that OSU is 5-0 against UK in the NCAA tournament and three of those losses (1961, 1962, and 1968) were in regional finals and prevented a trip to the Final Four. In 1961 and 1962, Ohio State was the number one team in the country, as is the case on Friday. If you follow the them of this season being a UK “redemption tour”, the Buckeyes are a good team to get revenge against. It has been 14 seasons since UK and the Buckeyes last suited up on the court so let’s get to know these Buckeyes.
THE STARTERS
#33 – G – JON DIEBLER SR 6’6 205
12.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.4 apg
#44 – G – WILLIAM BUFORD JR 6’5 205
14.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.0 apg
#23 – G/F – DAVID LIGHTY SR 6’5 220
12.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.3 apg
#0 – F JARED SULLINGER FR 6’9 280
17.1 ppg, 10 rpg, 1.2 apg
#52 – F/C – DALLAS LAUDERDALE SR 6’8 255
4.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.2 apg
BACKCOURT
Jon Diebler is one of the main targets that Kentucky must shut down. Diebler is a sharpshooter from beyond the three point line and is hitting an amazing 50% of his shots from downtown. That is even more impressive seeing that Diebler has taken 220 3-point attempts this year. 80% of Diebler’s shot attempts come from beyond the arc, so it’s important to keep a hand in his face and not allow him to get a free shot off. This is hard to do because of Diebler’s size. Diebler does not turn the ball over a lot either and has a 2.51 A/TO ratio, although his primary purpose is to shoot the ball. Diebler can be devastating as he has had 10-12 and 9-14 days from long range. William Buford is extremely quick and can create shots from all over the court. He is also another deadly three point weapon, nailing 44.4% of his treys. Buford is also good at finding open team mates and getting rebounds. Buford is a good all around player and is a very consistent scorer, reaching double digits in all but seven games. Freshman Aaron Craft (of the Bruce Pearl cookout infamy) will come off the bench and take over the point and is averaging 4.9 assists per game and had a career high 15 assists off George Mason. Craft will give up some size to Kentucky (at 6’2) but he handles the ball well with an A/TO ratio of 2.24. He also hits 38.8% of his treys and scores 7.1 points per game. He is solid defensively with 1.9 steals a game, but can be pressured into foul trouble.
FRONTCOURT
David Lighty is a very dangerous wing player that can play either the guard or forward position. He moves very well with the ball and is very explosive and is very solid defensively. Like Diebler and Buford, he is a very good 3-point shooter at 43.5% and he is the second best rebounder on the team. Lighty is also good at finding the open team mates, and needs to be covered when he grabs the rebounds as he likes to chuck the ball to an open three point shooter after a missed shot. Ligh
ty is a streaky scorer however and he can go 4-5 games without hitting double digits and then explode for the the next 2-3 games. Case in point, he scored 28 points total in the four games preceding George Mason, but then scorched GM for 25 points. Lighty also averages 1.5 steals a game. Jared Sullinger is the man that all the attention will be paid to, and rightfully so. He has been a best this season and is averaging a double double on the season. Sullinger is hitting 54.3% of his FG’s on the season and about half his rebounds come on the offensive boards. Sullinger can dominate the game and has 17 double doubles on the season and he has a couple of amazing performances on the season : 40 points/13 rebounds vs IUPUI and 30 points/19 rebounds versus South Carolina. What is interesting are the teams that Sullinger has had his “off performances” against: 5 points/7 boards versus Indiana and 7 points/8 boards versus Morehead State. Despite his size, Sullinger is not a shot blocking presence with just 19 blocks on the season. Dallas Lauderdale has been starting at the center position lately, but his playing time amounts to an extended cameo, averaging just 16.4 minutes per game. Lauderdale is a decent rebounder but has just one offensive board in the last seven games. He does not shoot the ball a lot, and is hitting 74.3% of his shots on the season. Granted, his shots are going to come on dunks or putbacks of missed shots as he has taken just 101 shots on the year. He fouls a lot, averaging just 1.8 fouls a game in just that limited time, but he can be a difference maker defensively as he swats about two a game. He has hit double digits in scoring just four times this season, but he could be one of those players that could score some if Ohio State goes cold from outside. When you discuss Ohio State, DeShaun Thomas can not be overlooked. He will spend a=some time at the wing, allowing Lighty and Sullinger to shift over when Lauderdale comes out of the game. He averages just 14 minutes a game, but is very productive with 7.7 points and 3.6 assists per game. He is also very quick and likes to slash to the basket to set up shots or can score himself. He has made just 21 treys on the season, but is hitting 32.8% of his trey attempts. He will give up a little height (he is 6’6) but is very tough to defend.
TEAM STAT COMPARISON
POINTS PER GAME
OSU 77.1 KENTUCKY 76.4
REBOUNDS PER GAME
KENTUCKY 38.1 OSU 34.5
ASSISTS PER GAME
OSU 15.6 KENTUCKY 12.7
FG%
OSU 49.9% KENTUCKY 46%
3PT %
OSU 42.4% KENTUCKY 39.6%
FT%
KENTUCKY 71.5% OSU 70%
OUTLOOK
There are lots of theories that Kentucky has no chance in this game. I tend to disagree. For one, I do not think that the Big 10 is a very strong conference this year and that Ohio States two losses were to teams that ended the season ranked in the top 20: #13 Purdue and #16 Wisconsin. Granted, they beat other teams that were ranked at the time, but of those teams, Minnesota did not make the NCAA and Illinois barely did. Overall Kentucky had the 8th toughest schedule and Ohio State had the 22nd. I will make the argument that Kentucky is the toughest team that Ohio State has faced this season and vice versa.
I think for Kentucky to win, speed will be the key. Kentucky needs to press the tempo of the game and turn this into a transition game rather than a half court game. I think this can be dangerous since earlier in the season, transition D was a problem for Kentucky and they do still tend to suffer lapses. I think that Brandon Knight has an advantage over Aaron Craft when he is in the game and that Jones can handle Lighty when that matchup comes up.
As for Sullinger, it is going to take a team effort to stop him. I would throw different players into the mix as well and would not be shocked if Calipari has an unorthodox defensive scheme to throw at the Buckeyes. I think that a few Kentucky players can frustrate Sullinger as Doron Lamb held him the three points in high school. Also putting the quicker Liggins and Miller on him at times can prevent him from getting the ball into the paint. And for short periods, Harrellson can hold his own. I would throw several different sets at Sullinger and see what works, but in the end, the pressure is on Jorts and Jones.
The key for this game is for Terrence Jones to dominate. I am thinking that if he can pull in a 20-10 performance like he was doing earlier in the season, Kentucky has a very good chance. Miller and Liggins will get their time covering Diebler and if they can harass him early, they can keep him getting into a rhythm. I know some people say to let Sullinger get his 20 points and concentrate on the guards, but I don’t want to concede 20 to Sullinger. I think if Kentucky can keep Sullinger in the 15-18 point range, they have a good chance.
In the end, Kentucky will be the toughest test for Ohio State. Sure this is an incredible shooting team, but Kentucky is a very good defensive team. If Kentucky can keep OSU under 40% FG percentage and in the low 30’s on three pointer, that is a good thing. The other thing is to own the boards. Aside from Sullinger, OSU does not have a lot of good rebounders
. Kentucky needs to bang on the boards and prevent second shots. Sullinger will get his 10, but the next highest rebounder is Lighty with 4 boards a game. If Kentucky can keep OSU to single digits in offensive rebounds, they are doing their job. I want to see them limit the offensive rebounds at 5-7.
In the end, it will come down to the shooters. We saw this last year when Kentucky had a horrendous shooting performance and because of that it did not matter who was in the paint for UK. Let’s hold OSU to one start and keep the defensive pressure on the guards and you can win, despite what Sullinger can do. It’s going to take a near perfect game for Kentucky, and even with that, OSU will probably win 7 out of 10 against Kentucky, but let’s go for the upset. UK 77 OSU 73
Keep following www.http://wildcatbluenation.com for the best in Kentucky basketball and football news, rumors, and opinions. By Kentucky fans for Kentucky fans