Kentucky Wildcats Basketball Preview – Know Your Enemy: Mississippi Rebels
By Paul Jordan
GAME 31
MARCH 11, 2011 – 3:30 PM
MISSISSIPPI REBELS (20-12) (7-9)
SEC TOURNAMENT QUARTERFINALS
GEORGIA DOME – ATLANTA, GA
TV – SEC NETWORK
SERIES HISTORY
Kentucky leads 97-13
LAST FIVE GAMES
2/1/2011: Mississippi 71 KENTUCKY 69
2/2/2010: KENTUCKY 85 Mississippi 75
3/12/2009: KENTUCKY 71 Mississippi 58*
1/27/2009: Mississippi 85 KENTUCKY 80
2/27/2008: KENTUCKY 58 Mississippi 54
* SEC Tournament
Welcome Ladies and Gentlemen to the 2011 SEC Basketball Tournament, otherwise known as the WILDCAT REDEMPTION TOUR. If Kentucky is going to win the SEC Tournament, as we all hope they will, they more than likely will have to play three teams that have defeated them this season: Mississippi, Georgia/Vanderbilt, and Florida/Vanderbilt. Of all those losses, the Mississippi game on February 1 was easily the most frustrating loss of the three as the Rebels were just 1-5 in the SEC at the time.
So far, Kentucky is 3-0 on the season when avenging losses. Keep in mind that the Georgia, Florida, and Vanderbilt “redemption” wins were all at Rupp Arena, but for this game at least, I expect the Wildcat fans to outnumber the Ole Miss fans by about 8-1, so this should be more of a home game than anything. Kentucky needs this win and probably a win on Saturday to lock up a “three seed” in the NCAA Tournament, so let’s look at the enemy.
THE STARTERS
#12 – G – CHRIS WARREN – SR 5’10 168
18.9 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.3 rpg
#5 – G – DUNDRECOUS NELSON – FR 5’11 190
7.1 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 1.4 apg
#32 – G – ZACH GRAHAM – SR 6’6 218
14.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg
#1 – F – TERRANCE HENRY – JR 6’9 205
9.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.2 apg
#2 – F – REGINALD BUCKNER – SO 6’8 233
7.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.6 apg
BACK COURT
Do we really need to introduce Chris Warren? Containing him is akin to cutting off the head of a snake. Without him, this team is a .500 team. In the first game, Kentucky did not contain him as he scored 22 points and went 4-7 from three point range, including the dagger that sealed the win for the Rebels. Warren brings scoring and senior leadership to this Rebels team. At just 5’10, Warren can score from all over the court, and the thing is – he does not have to have his three-pointers falling to give you trouble. He’s hitting a respectable 34.2% from beyond the line, but this year he has really upped his FT shooting to 93.5% on the season. Warren has also picked up his assists lately with 23 dishes in the last four games. Freshman Dundrecous Nelson has replaced Nick Williams in the starting lineup and he gives the Rebels another dangerous target from long range. He is hitting 37% on the year and scored 30 points against Auburn a couple of weeks ago. In that game, he went 7-12 from long distance. This does give the Rebels a pair of 5’11 guards however and you have to think Kentucky will look to use their size against them. Senior Zach Graham adds more experience to the backcourt and is the second leading scorer. Graham is another consistent scoring threat that can fill it up from anywhere on the court and is prone to having a big game. His 3-point % is down considerably from last year, but 34.4% is still respectable. Graham had 16 points against Kentucky in the first game and he also has a 30 point, 7-11 3-point shooting night against the Auburn Tigers. Hopefully Kentucky plays better D against Nelson and Graham than Auburn did. Former Indiana Hoosier Nick Williams started against Kentucky earlier and had just three points but he has been relegated to the bench since then. He is averaging just 6.5 on the year but has been ineffective coming off the bench. Trevor Gaskins has had a couple of 20 point games this season, but his missed three games in the middle of the season and has not been the same player since then. His scoring is dependent on how well he is hitting his treys and he is averaging 36.1% on the season and 6.4 points a game.
FRONT COURT
Terrance Henry is a banger and likes to mix it up in the post. He was plagued by inconsistency earlier in the season, but seems to be getting into a groove now with five double digit games in his last seven games. He is hitting 48.6% of his shots and takes enough three point shots to keep the defense honest. He can be a solid player, but I don;’t think he can carry a game on his shoulders, but he did have a decent game against UK earlier with 12 points. Unlike Henry, Reginald Buckner appears content to root around the post and take what the guards give him. He is very accurate around the goal, hitting 60.8% of his shots but his game translates to only about eight feet from the basket. He can score in bunches and has four double doubles on the season, but his forte seems to be as being the enforcer around the goal. He is a good rebounder and likes to get physical. He is constantly in foul trouble and he has fouled out 10 times on the year. He also had a pretty good game against UK inside earlier with 12 points. Steedman Short (6’9) and DeMarco Cox (6’8) offer minutes and size in the paint but not a lot of scoring at 3.3 and 1.7.
TEAM STATS
POINTS PER GAME
KENTUCKY 76.8 Mississippi 74.4
REBOUNDS PER GAME
KENTUCKY 38.3 Mississippi 35.9
ASSISTS PER GAME
Mississippi 12.9 KENTUCKY 12.6
FG%
KENTUCKY 46.1% Mississippi 35.4%
3-pt %
KENTUCKY 39.9% Mississippi 35.4%
FT%
Mississippi 75.9% KENTUCKY 71.7%
OUTLOOK
As I said in the earlier preview of the Mississippi game, the biggest mistake that Kentucky could make would be to overlook the Rebels. Well, Ole Miss has Kentucky’s attention now and I can assure you that Kentucky will be ready for them. Kentucky is a different team from the team that went down to Mississippi but the Rebels have continued to struggle since then with losses to Auburn and South Carolina. The addition of Nelson to the starting lineup is a big upgrade over Williams though and you have to respect the firepower of Ole Miss. In the first game, Ole Miss had eight three pointers and Kentucky needs to keep them at or around that level.
While the Rebels have added Nelson to the starting lineup, the Wildcats have added a new player as well: Darius Miller. The previous game at Ole Miss featured a very disjointed Kentucky squad and Kentucky got no leadership or production from anyone not named Jones, Lamb, or Knight. Those three accounted for 57 of Kentucky’s 69 points and the Rebels could stop a three player team. Darius Miller has averaged 16 points a game over his last six games and his emergence definitely gives the Rebels something else to worry about. That said, I think that this Wildcat team has turned the corner and should be able to use their length and defense to limit the two 5’11 guards. Doron Lamb has emerged defensively since the first game as well and that just gives UK another area of improvement.
As for predictions? I don’t think Ole Miss will recognize these Wildcats at all as UK should breeze to a 71-59 win.
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