Breaking Down The SEC Tournament
By Paul Jordan
Here we are, less than 24 hours until the start of the 2011 SEC Basketball Tournament, so I thought it would be a good time to break down the matchups and assess the teams and their chances of advancing through the opening round of the tourney. Keep in mind that this is NOT a betting guide and that any gains made from using this as a betting guide cannot be guaranteed, although in mind, all of these outcomes are guaranteed to happen. With that said, let’s look at the opening day.
THURSDAY
1:00 PM: #5W AUBURN vs #4E GEORGIA
Auburn 11-19 (4-12)
Georgia 20-10 (9-7)
The Tournament gets underway with a classic mismatch: A Georgia team looking to better their NCAA seed versus an Auburn team dreaming of Spring Break on Daytona Beach. For that very reason, Georgia has to be careful. Auburn took the Bulldogs to overtime earlier in the season before falling 81-72. In that game, the Tigers used 9-18 3-point shooting and got 30 points (5-7 on treys) from Earnest Ross to give the Bulldogs all they wanted. Georgia was led by a Herculian effort by Jeremy Price (22 points, 14 rebounds).
For their credit, Auburn has warmed to the spoiler role, going 2-2 over their last four games and the losses were by a combined four points. Georgia, by somne accounts, is still a bubble team, and was listed as one of the last teams out by Joe Lunardi, so this is a must win for them. Georgia has followed a predictable 4-4 path lately, beating the teams with poorer records and losing to the teams with better records and the Bulldogs have a habit of playing down to the level of competition. Look for Georgia to come out with a bounce in their steps and win without too much trouble.
GEORGIA 83 AUBURN 69
WHAT’S NEXT FOR GEORGIA?
ALABAMA 20-10 (12-4)
3:30 PM: #6E SOUTH CAROLINA vs #3W OLE MISS
South Carolina 14-15 (5-11)
Mississippi 19-12 (7-9)
From all appearances, Mississippi should be heavily favored in this game, yet they are a team that can play well on any given night, yet can not put together a solid streak and are predictable from night to night. Keep in mind that this is a team that beat Kentucky yet lost to Auburn. And there is not a lot at stake for either team. Ole Miss is not going to the NCAA unless they win four in a row, and I would think they are in the NIT already. South Carolina started strong, but has been miserable the last two months, going 1-8.
Granted, that one win was a 79-73 win over the Rebels on February 22. In that game, the Gamecocks led 69-55 with about 6:00 remaining, but the Rebels rallied to tie it at 73 and Sam Muldrow drained a trey with 1:02 left to seal the deal. That game saw career highs from South Carolina’s Muldrow (23 points) and the Rebel’s Chris Warren (33 points). Warren had 8 three pointers in that game. I think Ole Miss has the edge talent wise with Warren and Zach Graham in the frontcourt. Look for another wild game though. In the first game, the teams combined for 16-49 three point shooting.
MISSISSIPPI 73 SOUTH CAROLINA 65
WHAT’S NEXT FOR MISSISSIPPI?
#16 KENTUCKY 22-8 (10-6)
7:30 PM E5 TENNESSEE vs W4 ARKANSAS
Tennessee 18-13 (8-8)
Arkansas 18-12 (7-9)
If you are a fan of middle of the road teams, this game should be a delight for you. Both teams have woefully underperformed this season and both coaches are on the hotseat for different reasons. Tennessee is assumed by some to have a NCAA bid locked up and they do have several wins over ranked teams this year. They also have some horrendous losses. Arkansas also has big wins on the road at Vanderbilt and at home versus Kentucky, but like the Vols have struggled to find any consistency or identity this year.
Arkansas actually kicked off their SEC season with a 68-65 win over the Vols, and then promptly lost their next game versus LSU. In that game, Arkansas led by as many as 13, and had to hold on to withstand a furious Tennessee rally in the last four minutes. Delvon Johnson had 17 for Arkansas and Tobias Harris led the Vols by 21 points. This game features a couple of players that can take the game over with their scoring, Rotnei Clark and Scotty Hopson, and if one of them is on fire, they can lead their team to the win. Tennessee has more talent and they have a lot to play for, The question is if they show up.
TENNESSEE 71 ARKANSAS 62
WHAT’S NEXT FOR TENNESSEE?
#12 FLORIDA 24-6 (13-3)
10:30 PM #6W LSU vs #3E VANDERBILT
LSU 11-20 (3-12)
#24 Vanderbilt 21-9 (9-7)
And for your nightcap, we offer that classic mismatch that will be a colossal blowout. LSU has been horrendous this season and are 1-13 in their last fourteen games. Six of those losses have been by more than 20 points, so the Tigers are accustomed to getting blown out. Vanderbilt has lost two in a row, but have the SEC’s best player in Jon Jenkins who may outscore the Tigers on a good night. The Commodores have had their share of close losses this year, like Kentucky, and have lost five games by six points or less.
Vanderbilt was actually down at the half 43-41 in their earlier meeting versus the Tigers, but steamrolled them the second half to win 90-69. It was a total team effort for the Commodores, who got 20 points from Jeffrey Taylor, 17 rebounds from Lance Goulbourne, and 6 blocks by Festus Ezeli. The Tigers were led by Storm Warrens 24 points and 8 rebounds. And that pretty much sums it up. Vandy just has too much firepower and too many players that can hurt you and the Tigers are still at a big talent defiency.
VANDERBILT 81 LSU 63
WHAT’S NEXT FOR VANDERBILT?
MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-13 (9-7)
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