Kentucky Basketball Preview – Know Your Enemy: Vanderbilt Commodores
By Paul Jordan
GAME 29
MARCH 1, 2011 – 9 PM
#18 VANDERBILT COMMODORES 21-7 (9-5)
RUPP ARENA – LEXINGTON, KY
TV – ESPN
SERIES HISTORY
KENTUCKY LEADS 133-44
LAST 5 MEETINGS
2/12/2011: Vanderbilt 81 KENTUCKY 77
2/20/2010: KENTUCKY 58 Vanderbilt 56
1/30/2010: KENTUCKY 85 Vanderbilt 72
2/17/2009: Vanderbilt 77 KENTUCKY 64
1/10/2009: KENTUCKY 70 Vanderbilt 60
If Kentucky wants to avoid having to win four games to win the SEC Tournament, they must win this game, pure and simple. And then wait and pray that Georgia loses again. Due to a better division record, Kentucky would win the tie breakers versus both Vanderbilt and Georgia individually, but it can not be a three way tie. If that happens, the Commodores will win it. So for now, Kentucky has to do what they can control: beat the Commodores.
Kentucky has won the past three meetings at Rupp Arena, and they snapped a two game losing streak to the “Dores when this current streak started. Kentucky has pretty much had their way in Lexington with a 74-14 record overall. Prior to the Commodores two game winning streak in 2006 and 2007, you had to go back to 1974 to find a Commodore win in Lexington. These two teams played about two and a half weeks ago and Jon Jenkins led the Commodores to a 81-77 win over the Wildcats.
THE STARTERS
#1 – G – BRAD TINSLEY – JR 6’3 210
10.9 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.1 rpg
#23 – G – JOHN JENKINS – SO 6’4 215
19.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.2 apg
#44 – G/F – JEFFREY TAYLOR – JR 6’7 225
15.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.5 apg
#5 – G/F – LANCE GOULBOURNE – JR – 6’8 225
6.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.3 apg
#3 – C – FESTUS EZELI – JR 6’11 255
12.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.2 apg
BACK COURT
Brad Tinsley had 11 points in the first meeting in Nashville against the Wildcats and he has really grown into his role as a PG this season for the Commodores. He has an A/TO ratio over 2.00 and he is hitting 37.2% from downtown. He gets his fair share of rebounds and has actually has two 16 point scoring games since the Kentucky game. Tinsley is a very smart player, but can be rattled by long, athletic guards. Kentucky did not capitalize on that trait that much in game one. They have to do better at Rupp. Unfortunately, I do not need to introduce Kentucky fans to John Jenkins. All he did was hit 6-10 treys and torch the Wildcats for 32 points. Jenkins is hitting 41% of his treys and been virtually unstoppable, his “low game” has been 10 points. Jenkins provides a bit of a matchup problem at 6’4 and once again, like I said earlier, Kentucky needs to keep Jenkins near his average or cut his production. Jeffrey Taylor is “Mr. Do It All” for the Commodores as he is second on the team in scoring, assists, and leads the team in steals. He is hitting 37.9% of his three-pointers and passes the ball well. It is a bit disconcerting that Vandy really did not need Jenkins to beat UK in the first game as he had just four points on 1-7 shooting. Kyle Fuller will see some time but the freshman seems a little overmatched right now, averaging 2 points and 1.4 assists a game and is hitting just 31.3% of his shots and 26.1% of his treys. Regardless, Kentucky can not ignore him and let him do a “Scottie Wilbiekin” on them.
FRONT COURT
Like Taylor, Lance Goulbourne is a very gifted wing and can play either the three or the four, but I think we will see Lance more entrenched at the PF position tomorrow. He is a bit inconsistent, but has had stretches where he has played very well offensively for a few games at a time, but then he disappears for a few games. He was held scoreless against Kentucky in the first meeting and scored just a total of four points in the three games after UK, but then scored 16 against LSU. He hits 30.4% of his treys but has not attempted as many treys lately. Festus Ezeli is the rarity. He is that Nigerian prospect that actually develops and does more than just block a ton of shots. He has blossomed from averaging 3.8 ppg each of the past two years to become a legitimate double digit scorer. He is hitting 56.3% of his shots and he can hurt you on the offensive boards. His game is still limited a bit offensively to a 10 foot radius of the basket, but he is very effective inside. He had a good game against UK earlier with 14 points and 7 rebounds. He does average more fouls a game (3.1) than blocks (2.6) however. Ezeli only plays about 22 minutes a game. Steve Tchiengang gives the Commodores a true international flavor as the 6’9 junior hails from Cameroon. He is averaging 5.3 points and 3.2 boards a game and will take the occasional trey, of which he is hitting 45.7% Tchiengang really hurt Kentucky in the first name with 12 points and 2 timely treys in just 20 minutes. Freshman Rod Odom is another big player that at 6’9 is averaging 4.3 ppg and 2.8 apg. Despite his size, 65% of Odom’s FG attempts are 3-pointers and he is converting at a 40.9% rate.
TEAM STATS
POINTS PER GAME
KENTUCKY 77.6 Vanderbilt 77.1
RE
BOUNDS PER GAME
KENTUCKY 38.5 Vanderbilt 37.7
ASSISTS PER GAME
Vanderbilt 13.6 KENTUCKY 13.0
FG%
KENTUCKY 46.4% Vanderbilt 45.8%
3-point %
KENTUCKY 39.9% Vanderbilt 38.9%
FT %
Vanderbilt 74.5% KENTUCKY 71.4%
OUTLOOK
This looks to be a tough game for Kentucky, but to be honest, one that is winnable. Vandy is 4-3 on the road in the SEC and have won their last three road trips, although two of those were against LSU and Auburn. They are just 1-3 versus SEC East teams on the road however and face it, for whatever reason, Kentucky is a totally different team in Rupp Arena.
The key is to limit Jenkins and Taylor at or below their averages. If only Kentucky could have limited Jenkins earlier, they could have won easily. They also need to pressure Tinsley into making bad decisions. I feel pretty good about Kentucky’s front court in this game. Tchiengang hurt the Cats but Goulbourne and Ezeli were held in check. This is a game with good matchups for UK sans Jenkins. The good thing is that Kentucky has not been turning over the ball a lot lately and that Vanderbilt does not force a lot of turnovers. That said, Kentucky should be able to have a good offensive game. Another key is to rattle Tinsley and if he starts turning over the ball more, that is a big advantage for UK. Expect a different outcome in Rupp Arena this time around. Kentucky 81 Vanderbilt 73
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