Inside The Numbers: The Mystery Of Home vs. Away
By Corey Price
This season’s play by the Kentucky Wildcat’s men’s basketball team during their SEC schedule has been baffling to say the least. Through their first 13 conference games, they are a perfect 6-0 at Rupp Arena and a dreadful 1-6 away from the friendly confines of home. And an explanation as to why there is such a big discrepancy between the two won-loss records couldn’t even be conjured up by the late Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. So, I thought, I might as well try to explain it with numbers. I have compiled statistics on many different categories for Kentucky during those 13 conference games and broke them down into two groups: home and away games. I will give the average for each category and then a percentage increase or decrease of each statistic from Kentucky’s home games compared to their away games. This will settle the argument of whether or not their troubles on the road is strictly Kentucky’s problem or the opponents’ just playing better. Here is what I found:
Field Goals Made: Home: 27.17 Away: 25.43 (6.4% decrease)
Field Goals Attempted: Home: 57.17 Away: 59.29 (3.7% increase)
Field Goal Percentage: Home: 47.5% Away: 42.9% (4.6% decrease)
Free Throws Made: Home: 15.67 Away: 14.14 (9.7% decrease)
Free Throws Attempted: Home: 22 Away: 18.71 (14.9% decrease)
Free Throw Percentage: Home: 71.2% Away: 75.6% (4.4% increase)
3-Point Field Goals Made: Home: 9 Away: 5.43 (39.7% decrease)
3-Point Field Goals Attempted: Home: 20.5 Away: 17.29 (15.7% decrease)
3-Point Field Goal Percentage: Home: 43.9% Away: 31.4% (12.5% decrease)
Scoring Offense: Home: 79 Away: 70.43 (10.8% decrease)
Scoring Defense: Home: 59.5 Away: 71.71 (20.5% increase)
Scoring Margin: Home: +19.5 Away: -1.29 (-20.79)
1st Half Scoring Offense: Home: 42 Away: 33.57 (20.1% decrease)
1st Half Scoring Defense: Home: 25.5 Away: 35.71 (40.1% increase)
1st Half Scoring Margin: Home: +16.5 Away: -2.14 (-18.64)
2nd Half Scoring Offense: Home: 37 Away: 36 (2.7% decrease)
2nd Half Scoring Defense: Home: 34 Away: 35 (2.9% increase)
2nd Half Scoring Margin: Home: +3 Away: +1 (-2)
Personal Fouls: Home: 13.83 Away: 18.71 (35.3% increase)
Rebounds: Home: 37.83 Away: 35.71 (5.6% decrease)
Rebounding Margin: Home: +2.5 Away: -.29 (-2.79)
Assists: Home: 13.67 Away: 10.71 (21.6% decrease)
Turnovers: Home: 11 Away: 11.29 (2.6% increase)
Assist-To-Turnover Ratio: Home: 1.24:1 Away: .95:1 (29% decrease)
Turnover Margin: Home: +2.33 Away: +.57 (-1.76)
Blocks: Home: 5.5 Away: 6.57 (19.5% increase)
Steals: Home: 6.83 Away: 5 (26.8% decrease)
Points Off Turnovers: Home: 17.33 Away: 13.57 (21.7% decrease)
Points In The Paint: Home: 29.33 Away: 31.71 (8.1% increase)
Second Chance Points: Home: 10 Away: 12.57 (25.7% increase)
Fast Break Points: Home: 5.67 Away: 3.71 (34.5% decrease)
Bench Points: Home: 18.33 Away: 13.71 (25.2% decrease)
According to the numbers, there’s 8 statistical categories in which I would deem a big discrepancy between home and road games for Kentucky (percentage increase or decrease at least 25%):
3-Point Field Goals Made (39.7% decrease)
1st Half Scoring Defense (40.1% increase)
Personal Fouls (35.3% increase)
Assist-To-Turnover Ratio (29% decrease)
Steals (26.8% decrease)
Second Chance Points (25.7% increase)
Fast Break Points (34.5% decrease)
Bench Points (25.2% decrease)
3-Point Field Goals Made: not much to explain here, Kentucky just isn’t knocking down their shots from behind the arc on the road
1st Half Scoring Defense: perhaps Kentucky doesn’t have the defensive intensity from the opening tip-off and allows more points in the 1st half on the road, the Rupp Arena atmosphere increases defensive intensity in the 1st half for home games
Personal Fouls: pretty self-explanatory, most teams usually get called for more fouls on the road
Assist-To-Turnover Ratio: Kentucky isn’t as efficient with the ball in their hands on the road
Steals: Kentucky isn’t as aggressive on the defensive side of the ball on the road
Second Chance Points: a worse shooting percentage on the road results in more offensive rebounds in which Kentucky can get, hence more opportunities to get second chance points
Fast Break Points: fewer transition opportunities on the road due to the opponent shooting a better field goal percentage on their home court
Bench Points: with the game in doubt for most of the entire game on the road, perhaps coach Calipari relies too heavily on the starters, hence less time given to the bench players
Hopefully all of this can help put an end to the mystery of why Kentucky plays so differently on the road, or maybe it’ll add to the mystery, who knows. Let’s just hope that they can fix their road woes just in time for the filthy Vols on March 6th.
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