Kentucky Basketball Preview – Know Your Enemy: Florida Gators

GAME  28

FEBRUARY 26, 2011  –  4 PM

#13 FLORIDA GATORS  22-5  (11-2)

RUPP ARENA –  LEXINGTON, KY

TV – CBS

SERIES HISTORY

KENTUCKY LEADS  88-33

LAST FIVE GAMES

2/5/2011  Florida  70  KENTUCKY  68

3/7/2010: KENTUCKY 74 Florida 66

1/12/2010: KENTUCKY 89 Florida 77

3/7/2009: Florida 60 KENTUCKY 53

2/10/2009: KENTUCKY 68 Florida 65

Here we go again.  Another game against the Gators and well, I’m tired of saying this is a must win game for the Wildcats.  There are three games left and Kentucky is tied for third in the SEC East.  Of course it is a must win game.  The Gators on the other hand are the anti Wildcats.  They have tons of leadership and big game experience on their roster and they know how to win the close games, having beat Kentucky by just two points about three weeks ago.

The Gators are 6-3 in games that are decided by five points or less and have won their last four games in those circumstances.  The Gators have all but locked up the SEC East Title, having guaranteed at least a share of the division and they have won six games in a row.  Of those games, five of them have been single digit games, so this is not a team that wilts under pressure.  Kentucky has won the last three games at Rupp and usually has success at home against the Gators.  Kentucky seems to have regained the home court advantage after the Gators won back to back games at Rupp during their title years.

THE STARTERS

#11 – G – ERVING WALKER – JR 5’8 171

14.8 ppg, 3.3 apg, 3.0 rpg

#1 – G – KENNY BOYNTON – SO 6’2 183

13.1 ppg, 2.3 apg, 1.6 rpg

#25 – F – CHANDLER PARSONS – SR 6’10 218

10.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 3.6 apg

#23 -F – ALEX TYUS – SR 6’8 220

8.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.9 apg

#32 – C – VERNON MACKLIN – SR 6’10 245

11.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 0.7 apg

BACK COURT

It often seems like a broken record when it comes to describing Erving Walker:  small, plays out of control at times, and streaky from the 3-point line.  And the first meeting, Kentucky actually played him very well, holding him to 9 points on 1-9 shooting.  But Walker did get free for a late three pointer and had a game changing play when he drew the fifth “foul” on Josh Harrellson.  But that is Walker’s game.  He is going to use his speed to drive in and try to pick up cheap fouls and he pretty much has that to an art form.  He is always dangerous from the three point line (39%), but he has not played that well at Rupp and Kentucky needs to harass him into mistakes.  Kenny Boynton has a lot of the same attributes as Walker, meaning he can play wild and out of control, but he is always a threat to fill the bucket up.  Boynton is not an especially accurate shooter (36.4% FG and 29.2% 3-pointers) but he can score from all over the court and scores very well close to the basket.  He is very athletic but does not put up the type of rebounding or defensive stats you would expect.  Like Walker, you never know which Boynton will show up.  He had 12 points in Gainesville versus the Cats but that was on 4-12 shooting and 1-6 long range.  Scottie Wilbekin’s name went down in the book of unlikely heroes as he burnt the Wildcats for 9 points in game one, which was well above his yearly average of 2.5 points and 1.7 rebounds.  Wilbiekin has just 10 made treys on the season, but obviously he needs a hand in his face at all times.  He may actually be a better passing PG than Walker. 

FRONT COURT

When you look at Chandler Parson’s seasons numbers, they are not overly impressive, but the guy has become the epitome of clutch for the Gators and is the one to knock down a key three or grab a big rebound as he showed against Kentucky.  Against the Cats in Gainesville, he scored 17 points and grabbed 12 rebounds.  Chandler is dangerous in that he has the skillset to play all five positions and he had five assists against Kentucky as well which were backbreakers.  And he is always going to be hard to guard when due to his size.  He hits 38.9% of his treys which makes him a threat to score from all over the court.  He did miss a game last week due to injury, but he had 16 points versus Georgia last night so expect him to be at full strength.  Alex Tyus’s numbers are pretty much down across the board and he had 8 points and four rebounds versus Kentucky in Gainesville.  Despite his modest numbers, Tyus always seems to be the great case of untapped potential.  He can play brilliantly in one game and struggle for the next two or three.  He seems to be in a funk lately with just one double digit scoring game in the last eight and he only has double digits in rebounds twice all season.  With his size and skills, he should be close to a double double guy, but at this point he is the equivalent of a wet firecracker.  he could go off on you, but more than likely he will sit and smolder.  His shooting percentage is down to a career low 47.5%.  Vernon Macklin’s numbers could be much better if he played for any coach other than Billy Donovan.  Unfortunately for him, Donovan doe not utilize his post talent as he should, but Macklin is the type of player that can dominate in the post.  His rebound numbers a re a bit low for a big man, but he is hitting 57.3% of his shots.  Macklin’s “downside” is that he tends to disappear at times, and is not fully involved in the offensive gameplan.  He has been better about not getting in foul trouble lately, but has had a tendency to bite on cheap fouls in the past.  Patric Young could
be this year’s Daniel Orton for the Gators in that the freshman is averaging just 3.4 points and 3.4 rebounds a game, yet is rumored to be a “one and done”.  6’10 Erik Murphy has seen his numbers and minutes decrease gretly the last few games and he scored just two points in the Gainesville game.  He has a season average of 5 points and 2.8 rebounds a game, but has scored just 7 points total in the four games since Kentucky. 

TEAM STATS COMPARISON

Points per game

  Kentucky  77.7 Florida 70.8

Rebounds per game

Kentucky  38.7  Florida 38.3

Assists per game

Florida  13.7  Kentucky  13.0

FG %

Kentucky  46.3%  Florida  45.7%

3 pt shooting %

Kentucky  39.6%  Florida  34.0%

FT Shooting %

Kentucky  71.7%  Florida  66.2%

OUTLOOK

Like I said earlier, Florida is a team that wins games in spite of themselves and in ways are the “anti-Kentucky” this season.  You can also argue that they got some good ole home cooking by the refs in the Vandy and Kentucky games as both games had disputable key calls late.  Regardless, the Gators are going to win the SEC East, so kudos to them.  In spite of the 22-5 record and probable SEC crown, this is a game that Kentucky should win at home.  The key is is get the pressure on Walker, Boynton, and Wilbekin and not allow them to get off easy three pointers or to feed Macklin and Tyus for easy baskets down low.  If Kentucky can keep consistent guard pressure, that should be the key to the game and ensure a Kentucky win.

Chandler Parsons will be tough to cover due to his versatility and speed but he does tend to take long segments of the game off and can “disappear”.  Just make sure the pressure is on the guy the last six minutes of each half as you can not let him hurt you late.  Kentucky has good matchups against the Gators and I would hope that a raucous Rupp crowd can be the “Seventh Man” and help to rattle the Gators.  I see Kentucky getting off to a good start early and keeping Florida down most of the game.  I know that margin may surprise a few, but lets say Kentucky wins 83-71.

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