Is this years version of the Kentucky Wildcats really harder to defend than last years?

Three times this season we have heard opponents of the Kentucky Wildcats compare this team to last years team … and say that this years version is harder to defend.  First it was Rick Pitino.  Then it was Georgia’s Mark Fox.  And then after this weekend, LSU’s Trent Johnson spoke the Wildcat’s praises:

"“Their ability to shoot it and play in the half-court and full-court is probably a little better than that team they had last year.  Don’t get me wrong. That team last year was just so powerful. They just pounded you….This group, man, there’s not a lot of holes.  It’s not a question they’re harder to guard.”"

So are the Wildcats a tougher team to defend even without a DeMarcus, Patrick, or Enes?  Or is it all just a mirage thanks to the hot three point shooting?  I decided to take a look at the top six players from last years team and the top six from this years to see if they are truly harder to defend.  Since Terrence Jones has started most of the season, I matched him up in the PF position.

BRANDON KNIGHT vs JOHN WALL

At this point, Brandon Knight compares favorably to John Wall.  Knight has a better scoring average, 17.5 to 16.6, but Wall averaged more assists (6.5 to 3.9) and rebounds (4.3 to 3.8).  Wall was more of a true point guard than Knight and much faster and harder to contain one on one.  It should be noted that Knight will accrue less assists in the DDMO and that Kentucky plays a lot more DDMO than last season.  Wall had a better A/TO ratio than Knight (1.62 to 1.20) but when you consider the Knight is a better pure scorer than Wall and a much better three point shooter (41% to 32.5%), this is a pretty close match up.  Knight has more three pointers already than Wall had all season.  But when you factor in Walls quickness and ability to create his own shot, he rates a bit ahead of Knight.  But this match up is closer than people think.

DEANDRE LIGGINS vs ERIC BLEDSOE

This was also a pretty close matchup with Bledsoe scoring more (11.3 – 9.4) but Liggins getting more assists (3.9 – 3.1) and rebounds (3.1 – 2.9).  Both have similar number on three point shooting, but Bledsoe will probably have about 15 more treys on the season.  Bledsoe also had a much better A/TO ratio (2.9 – 1.79).  Both players tend to play out of control at times and seem to erratic in their shot selections, but Bledsoe was a lot more accurate (46.2% to 40.8%) in accuracy.  Too bad we are not looking at floor burns and defense or Liggins may prove to be the better overall match here, but in terms of harder to control, Bledsoe gets the call here.

DARIUS MILLER vs DARIUS MILLER

Big advantage to this year’s version of Darius Miller.  Miller is averaging more points (9.6 – 6.5), rebounds (5.1 to 2.5), and assists (1.5 to 2.1).  The big difference is in three point shooting.  This year’s Darius will have a few more made treys on the season, but he is hitting them at a lot more effective rate (44.2% to 33.6%)  As a whole, Miller Version 2011 is hitting his shots at a 47.6% clip to 40% last year.  Last year’s Darius had a slightly better A/TO ratio, but when you look at the overall level of confidence and his authority in driving to the basket and dishing off, it is a clear improvement.  Granted, Miller has had to step it up on this team and be a leader instead of being content to be a supporting player last year, but I think he has upgraded his game.

TERRENCE JONES vs PATRICK PATTERSON

It’s hard to do a comparison here and I admit, it feels sacrilegious to compare anyone to Paterson, yet we must take a look at the numbers.  Jones has the edge in numbers in scoring (18.6 – 14.3) and rebounds (9 – 7.4) but you have to consider the presence of DeMarcus Cousins affected Patterson’s numbers greatly.  Patterson deferred in scoring on some occasions to Cousins while Jones is expected to carry the loaf in the front court.  Both players were very similar in 3-point percentage (Jones leads 35.6% to 34.8%) and Jones will have more treys this season.  But as a pure scorer, you have to give Patterson the edge in that he hit 57.5% of his shots compared to Jones 46.6%.  Had Patterson have to carry the load by himself, he would have had better scoring numbers.  But looking at the numbers, it looks like a toss up.

JOSH HARRELLSON vs DeMARCUS COUSINS

If you look just at the scoring, this is a huge mismatch as Boogie outscored Jorts 15.1 to 6.7.  From a rebounding aspect however, Cousins just has a slight advantage, 9.8 to 9.5 boards per game.  Now, I am just playing devil’s advocate here and trying to build a case for Jorts, but you have to consider that Harrellson is not expected to score so points are a luxury for him.  In reality, Harrellson is making 61.4% of his shots compared to 55.8% for Cousins.  Now to make another argument for Jorts to be harder to control:  it is pretty impressive that the lightly recruited Harrellson is matching the five star Cousins in terms of rebounding.  You can appear that Harrellson is working harder and hustling more to get those rebounds which adds to the hard to control aspect.

DORON LAMB vs DARNELL DODSON

Even though Liggins averaged slightly more minutes last year, I chose Dodson because he was the 6th highest scorer from last years squad.  In this matchup however, Lamb wins the stats battle over Dodson in every category and by a large margin.  Doron outscored Dodson  13.8 to 6.0 and has nailed 50% of his treys as compared to Dodson’s 34.7%.  Also, Darnell had 50 treys all last season and Doron has 35 already.  But the biggest stat here is the ability to pass the ball.  Lamb is averaging 2.2 assists per game and Dodson averaged just .5.  The ability to find the open team mate gives Lamb the edge in a big way here.

It’s an interesting comparison.  Much has been made of the fact that Kentucky has less depth, but when you look at the fact that Kentucky has six solid players this year that can all contribute, you can see why the opposing coaches say this years Cats are harder to contain.  The big difference is the improvement that Miller has made this year and the Doron Lamb effect that make this a really interesting debate.  What are your thoughts?

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ucky fans