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How far away are the Kentucky Wildcats from being a "Top 8 seed" team?

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Here we are, ready to close the book on 2010 and just one beatdown of the Louisville Cardinals from being able to do so.  With the win over Coppin State, John Calipari’s Wildcats are now 10-2 on the season and are ranked #11th and #12th in the two main polls.  A win over Louisville would conceivably propel Kentucky into the Top 10 and from there, the national title buzz gets louder.

So how does Kentucky compare to the top eight teams in the country?  As we know, the top eight tournament seeds are not determined by the rankings, but also by the quality wins, “Bad losses” and the RPI.  Using all that information, I decided to see how Kentucky’s season so far puts them in contention for  one of those coveted top eight seedings.

#1 DUKE BLUE DEVILS  (11-0)

RPI Ranking – 4

Quality Wins:

82-77 over Marquette (10-3)

82-68 over #17 Kansas State  (10-3)

84-79 over #19 Michigan State  (8-4)

82-70 over Butler (9-4)

OUTLOOK:  Duke is good, yes, but Kansas State and Michigan State are top 25 teams due to tradition only and both have been on a steady decline out of the Top 25.  Duke has blown a lot of cupcakes away and have not had any unexpectedly close wins that raise eyebrows, so they appear to be solid for a lock as one of the top eight seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

#2  OHIO STATE BUCKEYES  (12-0)

RPI Ranking – 22

Quality Wins

93-75 over Florida (9-3)

OUTLOOK:  It’s not a good thing to see no wins over (currently) ranked teams on the schedule — Florida was 10th when OSU beat them.  And to this date, the Buckeyes have played no one else.  I tried to make the case for a 79-57 win over South Carolina as a quality win, but seeing the USC was blown out by Furman, I decided not to advance that argument.  Bottom line is the OSU needs to roll through the Big 10 with only 1-2 losses or a top 8 seeding is on shaky ground

#3  KANSAS JAYHAWKS  (11-0)

RPI Ranking – 1

Quality Wins

over Arizona  (11-2)  87-79

over #22 Memphis (9-2)  81-68

Eyebrow Raising Moments

over UCLA  (8-4)  77-76

over USC  (8-5)  70-68

OUTLOOK:  With a number one RPI ranking and an unblemished record thus far, I was say that Kansas can lose up to 4 games in the Big 12 this year (as long as they are losses to quality teams) and still have a pretty good chance on being a top eight seed.  The narrow wins to UCLA and USC at home are worrisome, but if Kansas can avoid any embarrassing losses, they should be OK.

#4  CONNECTICUT  HUSKIES  (10-1)

RPI Ranking – 7

Quality Wins

over Wichita State (9-2)  83-79

over #19 Michigan State (8-4)  70-67

over #11 Kentucky  (10-2)  84-67

Eyebrow Raising Moments

defeated Coppin State  76-64

lost to #6  Pitt  78-63

OUTLOOK:  Even with the blowout loss to Pitt (yes, I consider a 15 point loss eyebrow raising), the Huskies are still at number 7 in the RPI but they will drop a few spots in the polls.  The Huskies also have a game against Texas on the schedule and a very tough Big East slate ahead.  At this point, I would say that UConn is a borderline top eight seed team.

#5  SYRACUSE ORANGE  (14-0)

RPI Rank – 3

Quality Wins

defeated Michigan (10-3)  53-50

defeated Michigan State #19 (8-4)  70-67

defeated Providence (11-3)  81-74

Eyebrow Raising Moments

defeated William & Mary (4-7) 63-60

defeated Georgia Tech  (6-5)  80-76

OUTLOOK:  The Cuse has been perfect thus far and for the most part, been impressive.  As with any Boeheim team, there will be more than a few eyebrow raising moments, but this team has been good enough for none of them to be embarrassing losses.  The Orange is solid enough to be in the running for a top eight seed.

6.  PITTSBURGH PANTHERS  (13-1)

RPI Rank – 8

Quality Wins

defeated Maryland  (9-4)  79-70

defeated #14 Texas (10-2)  68-66

defeated #4 Connecticut  (10-1)  78-63

OUTLOOK:  The Panthers are solid and for real.  Their only stumble was a seven point loss to Tennessee but they more than made up for that by blowing out the hottest team in the country, Connecticut.  The Panthers are the second best rebounding team in the country and are physical enough to win the Big East. At this point, I would say that Pitt should be a top eight seed in the Tournament.

#7  SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS  (14-0)

RPI Rank – 9

Quality Wins

defeated Gonzaga (8-5)  79-76

defeated St Mary’s (10-2)  69-55

defeated Wichita State (10-2)  83-69

Eyebrow Raising Moments

defeated Cal Poly (4-7)  51-45

defeated San Francisco  (4
-9)  62-56

defeated IUPUI  (7-8)  61-46

OUTLOOK:  One only has to look at the last four games for the Aztecs to find three eyebrow raising moments.  They have been struggling against vastly inferior teams and I really have no idea why their RPI is so high.  I almost listed the Gonzaga game as a eyebrow raising moment as well but fell immune to the name recognition of a not very good Zags team.  The Mountain West has 3-4 teams that will hang a loss on SDSU this year, so don’t count on this team being a top eight seed.

#8  VILLANOVA WILDCATS  (10-1)

RPI Rank – 31

Quality Wins

Eyebrow Raising Moments

defeated St Josephs (4-8)  71-60

defeated LaSalle (4-7)  84-81

OUTLOOK:  No quality wins for the Wildcats is not a good sign at this point.  Add in the fact their loss was a 10 point loss to the only ranked team they have played, Tennessee, and the low RPI ranking and we see that Villanova is not a top 8 seed team, but a byproduct of the media’s infatuation with Big East basketball.

Now that is just the top eight teams in the polls.  So how do the Wildcats fit in these comparisons?

#11 KENTUCKY WILDCATS  (10-2)

RPI Rank  – 10

Quality Wins

defeated Washington (8-3)  74-67

defeated #15 Notre Dame (12-1)  72-58

Eyebrow Raising Moments

lost to #4 Connecticut  (10-1)  84-67

OUTLOOK:  Kentucky is definitely a team that is improving with every game and that win over Notre Dame just got bigger as the Irish blew out #9 Georgetown last night.  If Kentucky can knock off Louisville, they almost certainly are a legitimate top eight seed team headed into SEC play.

So I think that this alone makes a case for Kentucky to be a #1 or #2 seed in the tournament as of right now.  Of the above eight teams, two have RPI’s that are significantly lower than Kentucky’s which would seem to move them into contention right there.  And consider the fact that there is no way that five teams from the Big East are going to escape with a top 8 team seeding worthy record after the Big East schedule is over.  I say that two Big East Teams will fall out of the top 10, maybe three.

Putting this all together, this is putting Kentucky in a position to grab the 5th or 6th overall seed in the tourney provided Kentucky beats Louisville and goes, say 15-3 or so in the SEC.  It’s asking a lot of Kentucky to pull that off, but I don’t think very many people saw UK in the position to make this kind of noise early in the season.

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