Why losing Randall Cobb might not be AWFUL

I will start this out by saying that Randall Cobb is one of my favorite Wildcats of all time in any sport and I am crossing all my fingers and all my toes in hopes that he returns for his senior year. Now with that out of the way, I can move along.

There’s no doubt that Randall Cobb returning would be huge for the 2011 Kentucky football team. Cobb is a unique athlete that can do it all. He forces defenses to adjust to his skill-set and can single handedly alter the tempo of any game. He can throw like a quarterback, run like a tailback, return punts and kicks with the best of them, provide a reliable holder on extra points and field goals, and all that is in addition to his ability to change the game as a receiver. The Kentucky offense needed Cobb to bail them out countless times this past season and he was clearly the best player on the field each time the Wildcats took the field (no offense to Derrick Locke). The fourth down runs, the big catches to extend drives, and his ability to make people miss helped Kentucky stay in games they might not have been in otherwise.

But there’s a downside to Cobb’s greatness too.

The Kentucky offense NEEDED him to function this year. With Locke going down to injury for several games, the entire offensive game plan was funneled through Cobb. Starting with the Auburn game (when Locke went down), here’s what Cobb’s statistics looked like until Locke came back fully healthy:

vs Auburn:  47 yards rushing, 68 yards receiving, 34% of offense

vs USC:  27 yards rushing, 63 yards receiving, 23% of offense

vs Georgia:  0 yards rushing, 45 yards receiving, 11% of offense

vs MSU:  11 yards rushing, 171 yards receiving, 52% of offense

vs CSU:  0 yards rushing, 101 yards receiving, 20% of offense

vs Vandy:  170 rushing yards, 56 receiving yards, 39% of the offense

Cobb was clearly under-utilized against Georgia and the Charleston Southern game was a blood bath that allowed him to rest early. Outside of those two contests, he was anywhere from a quarter to a half of Kentucky’s entire offense. With Locke returning against Vandy (although clearly not 100%) the offense began to spread out again and the total production was better when Cobb had some help.

So looking ahead to 2011, Kentucky will be losing Mike Hartline, Chris Matthews and Derrick Locke to graduation. Their probable replacements are Morgan Newton, Raymond Sanders, and LaRod King and while all these guys have played over the last two years, there should be a noticeable drop off in production from each spot. The concern I have is that Kentucky is forced to funnel the offense through Randall Cobb on a continuous basis while the new guys get their footing. So while he may have the greatest statistical year in the history of the Kentucky football program, UK could be in trouble for 2012. With no Cobb and no one on the roster with his unique skill-set, the Wildcats could be forced to alter their entire offense from how they’ve operated the previous three years. Ask Florida how easy it is to replace a guy that your entire team is built around. So as crazy as it sounds, Randall Cobb moving on to the NFL early might not be the most terrible thing for the future of Kentucky football. If the Wildcats can develop their young receivers and backs to share the load amongst themselves, it will prevent the team from having to rebuild their offense to replace one player.

Again, I’m not saying I want Cobb to leave for the NFL. I’m just pointing out that recovering from losing him in the next offseason could be much tougher than recovering from losing him this one.

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