Kentucky Basketball Preview – Know Your Enemy: North Carolina Tarheels
By Paul Jordan
GAME 7
DECEMBER 4, 2010 12:30 PM
NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS (4-3)
Dean E Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC
TV – CBS
SERIES HISTORY
North Carolina leads 21-11
RECENT GAMES
12/5/2009: KENTUCKY 68 UNC 66
11/18/2008: UNC 77 KENTUCKY 58
12/1/2007: UNC 86 KENTUCKY 77
12/2/2006: UNC 75 KENTUCKY 63
12/3/2005: UNC 83 KENTUCKY 79
Well, if you are looking for tradition, it does not get much better than this. You have the number one all time winningest program facing off against the now number three all time winningest program. It’s true that Kentucky has more national titles and all time wins, but in all reality, the Tar Heels have owned the head to head meetings. This series has been a series of streaks lately with Kentucky’s win last year breaking a five year UNC winning streak. Before that, Kentucky had a four year winning streak and even before that, UNC had won six in a row. Kentucky has lost the last three games at Chapel Hill, but comes into this game looking to defeat a UNC team that for the second straight year appears to be underperforming.
The Tar Heels stumble into Saturday’s game with a disappointing 4-3 record and the reds are flying high after early season losses to Minnesota, Vanderbilt and Illinois. Even more shocking are the narrow wins over College of Charleston (74-69) and North Carolina Asheville (80-69). Regardless, I am not going to dismiss the Tar Heels off as a bad team. Like Kentucky, they are stocked with five star recruits and playing on their home court makes them a very dangerous team. That said, let’s look at the Tar Heels.
STARTERS
#11 – G – LARRY DREW II – JR 6’2 180
3.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.4 apg
#1 – G – DEXTER STRICKLAND – SO 6’3 180
7.6 ppg, 2.7 apg, 2.0 rpg
#40 – F – HARRISON BARNES – FR 6’7 215
11.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.0 apg
#31 – F – JOHN HENSON – SO 6’10 195
11.1 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 0.6 apg
#44 – F – TYLER ZELLER – JR 7’0 240
14.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.7 apg
BACK COURT
As of now, Larry Drew II remains the starter at PG, but he has to be looking over his shoulder and wondering how long the job will be his. All of Drew’s numbers are way down from last season. His scoring has gone from 8.5 to 3.6, and his assists have fallen from 5.9 to 3.4. His shooting stats are also in free fall as his FG % has fallen from 40.5% to 22.2% and his 3-pointers from 35.2% to 16.7%. As much as I would love to mock and make fun of Drew, he scares the hell out of me. He’s due a big game and Kentucky needs to keep the pressure on him and prevent that from happening. Drew comes into this game with a career low 1.60 A/TO ratio so lets hope the slump continues one more game. The maturation of Dexter Strickland has taken a little longer than expected for the Tar Heels. Strickland is good at attacking the basket, but can play out of control at times. He has a pretty good FG percentage (47.2) and is an occasional 3-point shooter, so look for most of his action to be in the 15 foot in range. He is a pretty solid defender but not a terribly good ball handler. Strickland has the potential to put up some points, but has not done it yet. Freshman Kendall Marshall was the 7th ranked PG in the 2010 class and if Drew continues to slump, he could find himself starting. Marshall is averaging 4.3 points and 4.0 assists in just 15 minutes a game and he has a better A/TO ratio than Drew and is 3-5 on three pointers on the year. Marshall does tend to get lost offensively and has gone a couple of games without taking a shot, but he is pretty solid defensively. Freshman guard Reggie Bullock at 6’7 will present some matchup problems as well. He is very productive at 8.5 points a game in just 15 minutes and he hits half his treys. Leslie McDonald comes off the bench, hits 42.1% of his treys and is averaging 6.6 points. Justin Watts gets about 10 minutes a game, but is not as much a threat to score as the bench freshmen ahead of him.
FRONT COURT
Harrison Barnes is going to get most of the attention in this game, at least from the media. Barnes was considered the best player in the 2010 class and the results have been mixed thus far. He has had dreadful games (0-12 from the field versus Minnesota) and good games (19 points versus Hofstra), and unfairly he has been the face of UNC’s disappointing season thus far. Cheer up, Harrison … not everyone can be Terrence Jones. Barnes has definitely been struggling with his shot after the first two games of the season ( 14-57 = 24.5%). And apparently, he is good from the 3-point line against inferior teams (7-8 against Hofstra and UNC Asheville) but has struggled against everyone else from beyond the line ( 1-14). last I checked, Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins do not play for Hofstra, so Barnes should get lots of pressure. Now John Henson is a player that concerns me. He is very good around the basket both offensively and defensively and is averaging a double double. He hits 54% of his shots and is averaging almost 3 blocks a game. He is more a active on the defensive boards though and his FT shooting is atrocious 33% though, so if the game is close, we could see a hack-a-Henson strategy. Tyler Zeller is having a pretty solid season, but you would expect more from a 7 footer. He can score points in bunches (he has two 20 point games) but only one double double. He only has two games in doub
le digits rebounding this year, so you would think that would be a bit higher. Zeller can rebound on both ends of the court though but has fallen into foul trouble a couple of times. Senior Justin Knox is instant offense and rebounding off the bench. He is playing just under 16 minutes a game and averages 6.9 points and 5.1 rebounds. He’s hitting his shots at a 53% clip and at 6’9 offers good size.
OUTLOOK
As I said earlier, this can be a tough game for Kentucky has the Tar Heels have about four to five players that are overdue a big game. Also, this is a very deep team as ten players will see at least 10:00 a game. The Tar Heels have some very impressive freshmen coming off the bench that can take over a game. Bullock can also offer depth in the front court due to his size as well. The problem with the Tar Heels appears to be chemistry because at this point they have very little. You get the feeling that this is the game tar Heel fans have been waiting for: a chance to get Kentucky at home. The teams literally reversed roles last year. UNC went from National Champs to NIT and UK went from NIT to 35-3. This could be a coming out party for UNC’s freshmen and to serve notice that the Heels are back.
North Carolina has a very strong front court and Henson will be tough to cover. And a lo of the pressure will be on Josh Harrellson to hold his own against Tyler Zeller. I know I have said it a million times, but 12 points and 12 boards from Harrellson and Vargas combined should make for a good Kentucky game. The real action will be in the back court as Kentucky has a big advantage over the starters of UNC and even over their bench as a whole. A possible big advantage for Kentucky could be in the 3-point shooting area. UNC is an average team at best from beyond the line and if Kentucky can drop some early bombs, they can quiet the crowd. I think Brandon Knight needs to have a better ball handling day and look to get about 6-8 assists and dish off more to find open team mates. If Kentucky starts hitting open treys, it will be a good day also.
Throw the records and prior performance out the window. This is Kentucky/UNC and as proved last year, records really don’t matter. Look for a very hard fought and closer than expected game, but for Kentucky to pull away the last ten minutes en route to a 82-75 win.
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