The bowl picture and some of my projections.
By Paul Jordan
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Kentucky’s off this week and not having a game to cover provides a great opportunity to evaluate the bowl options the Wildcats might have. Currently, Kentucky is eighth in the SEC standings and has guaranteed themselves bowl eligibility with six wins this season. The SEC has only two teams that cannot become eligible for postseason play (Mississippi and Vanderbilt), and has two teams that must win their final game to become bowl eligible (Georgia and Tennessee). A big part of the picture will be clearer when the dust settles next weekend and Tennessee and Georgia learn their fates. These are the bowls with SEC tie-ins:
BCS National Championship – Glendale, AZ
There’s no true tie-in for the SEC here, but if the conference champion can escape undefeated or with one loss, they will always be in the running because of the strength of the conference overall.
My guess: Auburn vs. Oregon
UK’s chances: 0%
Sugar Bowl – New Orleans, LA
Traditionally takes the SEC champion or runner-up if the SEC champion is selected for the BCS national championship.
My guess: LSU vs. TCU
UK’s chances: 0%
Capital One Bowl – Orlando, FL
Pairs a SEC team against a Big10 opponent.
My guess: Alabama vs. Ohio State
UK’s chances: 0%
Cotton Bowl – Dallas, TX
Pairs a SEC team against a Big 12 opponent.
My guess: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma St.
UK’s chances: 0%
Outback Bowl – Tampa, FL
Pairs a SEC team against a Big10 opponent.
My guess: South Carolina vs. Iowa
UK’s chances: 0%
Chik-fil-A Bowl – Atlanta, GA
Pairs a SEC team against an ACC opponent.
My guess: Florida vs. N. Carolina St.
UK’s chances: 5%
Gator Bowl – Jacksonville, FL
Pairs a SEC team against a Big10 opponent.
My guess: Kentucky vs. Penn State
UK’s chances: 20%
Music City Bowl – Nashville, TN
Pairs a SEC team against an ACC opponent.
My guess: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
UK’s chances: 40%
Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN
Pairs a SEC team against a C-USA opponent.
My Guess: Georgia vs. UCF
UK’s chances: 15%
Compass Bowl – Birmingham, AL
Pairs a SEC team against a Big East opponent.
My guess:
UK’s chances: 20%
The best case scenario for Kentucky, would be the following:
-Beat Tennessee
-Georgia loses to Georgia Tech
-Ole Miss Beats MSU
-Auburn beats Alabama
-Auburn wins SEC championship
-Auburn is selected for the BCS national championship
This would set the dominoes to fall so that Kentucky and Mississippi State will both be 7-5. In this scenario, the Wildcats would probably be in consideration for the Gator Bowl, the Music City Bowl, and the Liberty Bowl. I think Kentucky would probably accept an invitation to the Gator Bowl first and take their first trip to Florida for the postseason since Tim Couch was under center. If the Gator Bowl were to go in another direction, the Music City Bowl would probably be the next pick despite the numerous trips the Cats have made there. I would think that Kentucky would do everything possible not to attend the Liberty Bowl because it will be at the exact same day and time as the Kentucky-Louisville basketball game. A loss to Tennessee, Auburn losing against Alabama or to South Carolina in the SEC championship, and wins by Georgia and Mississippi State next weekend could be catastrophic. This would mean the Wildcats would have to get an At-Large bid as the SEC’s tenth bowl eligible team (and no representation in the BCS title game). If all the bowl slots are filled, there’s still a chance the Wildcats could be left out in the end. While the scenario is no certainty, I would think that there’s a pretty good chance it could happen and Kentucky would have to hope some of the smaller conferences do not fill all of their slots.
There are several possible outcomes at this point, but at least there’s a way for the Wildcats to control their own destiny. Beating Tennessee will guarantee Kentucky a trip to a bowl with a SEC tie-in.
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