Kentucky Basketball Preview – Know Your Enemy: Portland Pilots
By Paul Jordan
GAME 2
PORTLAND PILOTS (3-0)
11/19/2010 10:30 PM
Rose Garden – Portland OR
TV – ESPN-U
SERIES HISTORY
Kentucky leads 1-0
When John Calipari took the job at the University of Kentucky, he vowed to take Kentucky back to the top of the proverbial mountain again, and apparently part of Calipari’s plan involved a Westward expansion. In just a few months period, Calipari has snagged recruits Terrence Jones and Kyle Wiltjer from the great Northwest, as well as assistant coach Kenny Payne. This game is also historic in the fact that is is Kentucky’s first appearance ever, in the state of Oregon, and they meet the up and coming Portland Pilots.
While this is Kentucky’s first appearance in Oregon, the Wildcats and Pilots have battled once before, in the now defunct UKIT. On December 23, 1989, Rick Pitino’s Wildcats dusted off the Pilots 88-71. That Pilot team was coached by former Wildcat Larry Steele. Tomorrows game is the first of a three game series between Kentucky and Portland. Portland will play games at Rupp in 2011 and 2012.
Portland tied a school record with 21 wins last season and played in the CIT for the second straight season. Also in November of last year, Portland cracked the AP Top 25, which was the first time in 50 years that they had been ranked in that poll. Portland is building off last season’s success with a 3-0 record with wins over Milwaukee, UC Davis, and Florida Atlantic. This game is such a big deal for the Portland program that is being played in the Rose Garden, the home of the Portland Trailblazers. Needless to say, Kentucky will be Portland’s biggest challenge this season, so lets meet the Pilots.
THE STARTERS
#1 – G – ERIC WATERFORD – JR – 6’1 – 180
8.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 2.0 rpg
#20 – G – JARED STOHL – SR – 6’1 – 165
16.7 ppg, 0.7 apg, 0.7 rpg
#33 – G – NEMANJA MITROVIC – JR – 6’5 – 200
9.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.0 apg
#43 – F – LUKE SIKMA – SR – 6’8 – 235
11.3 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 2.3 apg
#45 – F/C – KRAMER KNUTSON – SR- 6’9 – 220
8.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.0 apg
THE BACKCOURT
Eric Waterford has been starting at the point and generally plays about half the game. He’s not a huge 3-point threat but is hitting half his attempts on the season (2-4). His scoring has really picked up the last two games and he is shooting an astounding 72% on the season. Keep in mind he is getting that 8.7 points a game in only 19.3 minutes a game. Waterford is very sound fundamentally, does not turn the ball over, and does not foul. Jared Stohl is the player that is keeping John Calapari awake at night, as Cal has called him the “best 3-point shooter” in the country. Stahl is living up to that reputation, shooting 57.1 beyond the 3-point line and that translates to hitting four of seven a game on average. I would say that Stohl will have his seven attempts by halftime on Friday night. Ironically, Stohl shoots 57.1 from the field on the season as well, making him what you call a dangerous scorer. If you look at the rest of his stats, you see that all he does is score. Mitrovic is really another shooting guard playing the “three” position. He is a bit small for a true SF, but he makes up for that in scoring ability. He can bomb away from beyond the 3-point line, nailing 58.3% and actually shoots a bit better from outside than his normal shooting percentage at 55.6%. he is an adequate rebounder, but you can push him around and shut him down on the boards if you play physical. Freshman Tim Douglas, at 5’10 and 155, is the other half of the point guard equation. He is quicker and a bit better defensively, and is averaging 6 points a game, but shoots just 33.3% on the year and has not hit a trey on four attempts this season. I know Kentucky’s not a huge team, but you would think Kentucky’s guards will present some size matchup problems here. Another freshman, 6’3 Tanner Riley is instant offense for the Pilots, averaging 10.7 points and 2.7 assists in just 18 minutes a game. He has also hit half his 3-point attempts (4-8).
THE FRONTCOURT
Simply put, Luke Sikma is a beast at the PF position. He can throw the body around and is a tenacious rebounder and has a 19 rebound game on the season already. He can also score as he is averaging a double-double on the season and is pretty solid defensively, averaging 2.0 blocks a game. Sikma has the range to go deep, like everyone on this team, and has hit two of his three s-point attempts on the season. There aren’t a lot of weaknesses with Sikma’s game, so he should be a decent test for Terrence Jones. Kramer Knutson is the traditional post presence for the Pilots. He will stay mainly around the goal bit is pretty good offensively, shooting 75% . He can’t be counted on to be a big scorer … he is coming off a 16 point outburst which has boosted his scoring average. He does get about half his rebounds on the offensive boards though. Don’t look for him to stray much more than 10 feet from the goal and he has never hit a trey. 6’9 Riley Barker will back up Knutson and is another freshman. For the year, Barker averages 3.3 points and 2.7 assists. He does not shoot a lot with just 5 attempts on the season. Ryan Nicholas is yet another freshman for the Pilots and he is averaging just 3.7 points a game. He also tends to foul a lot with 5 fouls in just 23 minutes this season.
OUTLOOK
I have to admit, this is an interesting game for Kentucky. I think Kentucky’s biggest fear is a Sam Houston State situation as this team can simply shoot the lights out. This is a very good shooting team as they are hitting 53.5% from the field for the season. What does scare me is the 3-point shooting. Portland is hitting 50.9 for the season on their treys and it’s not like they are just shooting a few a game. After three games, they are averaging 9-18 nights from long range. I think we need to set the over/under bar for 3-point attempts at around 30 for this game.
In a lot of ways, Portland reminds me of Kentucky. They are a guard oriented team and their front court is their weakest part. Neither team is that big though, which bodes well for Kentucky. It would be a good sign if either Josh Harrellson/Eloy Vargas can assert themselves and come up with the 12 points, 10 rebounds combined average I think they need to get to. And although these teams may be similar, they are very different. Stohl is a great outside threat, but he is basically a one dimensional player. If I were Calipari, I would match Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins on him all night long. No offense to the Pilots, but they have not played against players like Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb, and Terrence Jones yet.
Can Portland upset Kentucky? Sure. Historically, they are the type of team that has given Kentucky problems over the year, but what we have here is a clear upgrade of talent across the board for Kentucky. Portland really only plays seven players a lot of minutes and while it is too early to know Calipari’s substitution pattern, Kentucky has a far superior bench. There are a lot of freshman on both teams, but Kentucky has the five star variety while Portland does not. And even if this game turns into a dogfight, talent usually takes charge and prevails the last 8 minutes or so of a game.
This can be interesting, especially if Portland starts out hot from the field and they may keep this interesting for a half. But in the end, look for talent to prevail and for Kentucky to win going away, 90-73.
Keep following www.http://wildcatbluenation.com for the best in Kentucky basketball and football news, rumors, and opinions. By Kentucky fans for Kentucky fans