Kentucky Football Preview – Know Your Enemy: Vanderbilt Commodores

GAME 11

NOVEMBER 13, 2010  12:21 PM

VANDERBILT COMMODORES  (2-7)

COMMONWEALTH STADIUM – Lexington, KY

TV – SEC NETWORK

SERIES HISTORY:

KENTUCKY LEADS  40-38-4

RECENT GAMES:

2009:  UK  24  VANDERBILT  13

2008: VANDERBILT 31 UK 24

2007: UK 27 VANDERBILT 20

2006: UK 38 VANDERBILT 26

2005: UK 48 VANDERBILT 43

"We know the drill by now. Coming into this week’s matchup with Vanderbilt, Kentucky football is at a crossroads. Win this game, become bowl eligible for the fourth straight season, and brag that we actually “own” a SEC program in football with our 5th win in 6 tries over the Dores. Lose, well, it’s going to be another long week for second guessing the coach/players, and watching UK “fansites” bash the players, plus we get a whole season of fretting how Vanderbilt has overtaken us in football."

The above quote was taken from the Friday, November 13 edition of the Wildcat Blue Nation and were my words just a year ago.  Going into tomorrows game with the Commodore’s the sentiment remains the same and the above quote can be used again, except change that Kentucky would be bowl eligible for the fifth straight season and that the Cats are looking for their 6th win in 7 tries against the ‘Dores.  Other than that, the story remains the same.

If Kentucky beats the Commodores, they would become bowl eligible for the fifth straight year … and as fate would have it, a victory over the Commodores would make Kentucky bowl eligible in three of those five seasons (2006, 2009, 2010).  Although it seems that Kentucky has separated themselves from the Commodores on the football field, it is not showing in the overall record.  If Kentucky wins, it would be the fourth time in five seasons that Kentucky had six wins after the Vanderbilt game.

But we can look at the Vandy game in a negative fashion and lament the progression of the UK program over five seasons or we can look at it in a positive way.  I choose the latter.  Let’s beat Vandy and get to that fifth straight bowl!!!

OFFENSE

Starting QB Larry Smith does not strike a lot of fear into the opposing teams.  His stats this year have been pretty pedestrian, with 1058 yards passing and 6 TD’s vs 4 INT’s on the season.  The passing game has gone progressively downhill the last two games against Arkansas and Florida, with Smith going 11-30 for 53 yards passing with 1 TD and no picks.  Those stats are for both games combined, not an average, folks.  On the season, Smith has failed to crack 100 yards passing in 5 games. Smith is not terribly accurate, completing juts 49.5% of his passes on the season.   Smith is prone to run with the ball, but a lot of that is out of necessity as he has been sacked 23 times on the season.  If left unchecked, Smith can hurt you with his feet, with 63 yards rushing versus Connecticut and a pair of 48 yard performances under his belt.  Vandy also throws Junior Jared Funk in for a few plays per game, but his stats are even worse than Smith’s.  Funk is completing just 39.1% of his passes  and has 2 TD’s versus 3 picks on the season. 

Kentucky catches something of a break as RB Warren Norman has been lost for the season with a wrist injury.  Sophomore Zak Stacy, at 5’9 – 205, now takes over the lead RB duty for the Commodores.  Stacy has 331 yards rushing and 3 rushing TD’s on the season and is averaging 5 yards a carry.  Like the rest of the Vanderbilt offense, Stacy’s numbers have hit rock bottom as he had just 10 yards on 10 carries versus Florida last week.  Stacy has caught 9 passes on the season but is just averaging just 3.6 yards a carry.  Stacy suffered a concussion versus Florida, so his status is up min the air versus the Cats.  With Norman out, QB Smith now is the second leading rusher, with 82 carries for 193 yards, a 2.4 yard average.  Look for Freshman Wesley Tate, at 6’2 – 220, to see more action versus Kentucky, that is if Tate’s ankle injury versus Florida was not too serious.  Tate had 41 yards rushing versus Florida, averaging almost 6 yards a carry.  Kentucky should look for a trick play from WR Jonathan Krause, who has scored from 21 and 44 yards this season.  Kennard Reeves with 26 rushes for 77 yards on the season would be the lone scholarship RB if Tate and Stacy are unavailable to play. 

It speaks volumes about Vandy’s passing game when TE Brandon Barden leads the team in receptions, yardage, and TD’s with 24-281-3.  Barden has great size for a TE at 6’5 and 250, but in no ways should he be your leading receiver.  Somerset’s Jon Cole is the leading WR with 17 catches for 224 yards.  His sole TD was a 57 yard reception versus Eastern Michigan as part of a 103 yard performance.  Udom Umoh appears to be the deep threat for the ‘Dores with a 18 yard per reception average and 2 TD’s on the season, but he has just 9 catches on the year and none in the last two games.  Jonathan Krause has 15 catches on the year, but has 3 catches for (-3) yards the last two games.  There is not a lot here to strike fear into the Wildcat’s secondary … provided Kentucky finishes their tackles. 

DEFENSE

In the past, Vandy has always had a pretty solid defense that at least kept them in games that gave SEC foes the occasional fit.  Vandy’s defense has given up 40 points in a game four times this season, and three out of the last four games.  The Commodores are currently 92nd in the NCAA, giving up 30.9 points a game.  Overall Vandy’s rushing defense is giving up 180 yards a game but that translates to just a bit over 4 yards a carry.  Other teams have been able to pass against the Commodores as they are giving up 284 a game.

S Sean Richardson leads the Commodores in tackles and has 6.5 tackles for losses.  Rob Lohr has 4 sacks on the season with 6.5 tackles for loss as well.   DE Tim Fugger has just 17 tackles on the seaso
n, but is a hard hitter, forcing four fumbles.  Casey Hayward is the main threat in the defensive backfield with 5 interceptions and has defensed 13 passes on the year.  As a team, the Commodores have just 7 picks on the season. 

OUTLOOK

On paper, this is a game that Kentucky should win easily, especially with the Commodore’s running game in such disarray.  The running game was the Commodore’s strength, as the passing game has been virtually non-existent this season.  That said, after a less than impressive win over Charleston Southern last weekend, this is a game Kentucky should dominate both offensively and defensively.

This is an especially bad Vanderbilt team as their only wins are against Eastern Michigan and Mississippi.  Since Mississippi is a team that beat Kentucky, they should take that as a warning that this is not an auautomatic win however.  Kentucky should have no problem establishing the run, no matter who starts, but this should be a stellar game for Mike Hartline and his receivers.  I would also look for a solid game by the defense as this should be a running game that can be stuffed.  If not for the injuries, this could be a typical Kentucky-Vandy grindfest, but I look for Kentucky to not be challenged that often and to become bowl eligible with a 31-14 win over the Commodores.

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