Kentucky @ Mississippi State: Who has the Edge?

From the high felt after beating South Carolina to the low felt after the Wildcats essentially gave the game to Georgia, it’s been a roller-coaster ride so far this season. Kentucky will travel to Starkville this weekend to take on a surprisingly good Mississippi State team that’s been on their game for most of the season. If Kentucky can rebound from the Georgia loss and knock off the Bulldogs at home, Bowl eligibility will be a foregone conclusion. If the Wildcats lose, they’ll have to knock off Vanderbilt and Tennessee to guarantee themselves a postseason.

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QUARTERBACK

Mississippi State features a two-headed quarterback tandem of starter Chris Relf and backup Tyler Russell. Relf is more of a running threat that will step back and hit a deep pass here and there and Russell is a more traditional pocket passer. Neither have really lit it up through the air and both are relatively mistake prone. Relf has made quite a name for himself as a rusher though, and is currently averaging 53 yards per game on the ground. Kentucky has one of the conferences best passers in Mike Hartline. Never thought I’d type that our two years ago. This one’s not even close.

The Edge: KENTUCKY

RUNNING BACK

The Bulldogs bring in JUCO transfer Vick Ballard as their primary ball carrier this year, and while he’s no Anthony Dixon, he’s had a great year so far while averaging 73 yards a game. Kentucky’s Derrick Locke is questionable again this week after sitting out the last two games and reserves Donald Russell and Raymond Sanders are his likely replacements if he can’t go. If Locke is out, Mississippi State gets the nod here behind Ballard’s 11 touchdowns and 6.6 yard per carry average. If Locke’s in the game, Kentucky gets the nod here.

The Edge: TBD

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Mississippi State has Chad Bumphis here and not much else. Bumphis has had a good year so far averaging 14 yards per catch on 33 grabs on the year, but the rest of the team has made their mark with some big plays one few receptions. Kentucky’s Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews are shoulders above everyone in MSU’s receiving corps. To put things into perspective, Kentucky freshman tight end Jordan Aumiller would be tied for second on the team in receptions if he were a Bulldog.

The Edge: KENTUCKY

OFFENSIVE LINE

The Mississippi State offensive line is probably the strength of the team and has allowed a one-sided offense to have it’s way with opponents this season. The unit has only allowed 10 sacks on the year, which is pretty impressive when you remind yourself that MSU features a scrambling QB and those guys tend to take sacks. Kentucky’s offensive line started strong, but had a major hiccup last week against Georgia. The fact that the Wildcats drop back a lot more than the Bulldogs but have given up on fewer sack says something, but the MSU unit has been to dominant to be overlooked here.

The Edge: MISSISSIPPI STATE

DEFENSIVE LINE

The Bulldog’s defensive line hasn’t been a deciding factor for them this season, but the unit has played well despite not putting up gaudy statistics. Pernell McPhee hasn’t had a sack yet this season, but remains one of the SEC’s top pass rushers and frequently demands double teams. Kentucky’s defensive line has played better than expected when the lack of production from DeQuin Evans is factored in. While the Bulldogs haven’t been markedly better at bringing down the QB than the Wildcats, the big difference here lies in stopping the runs and MSU has done a lot better job of clogging up running lanes than Kentucky.

The Edge: MISSISSIPPI STATE

LINEBACKERS

I say it every week and every week it’s true, Danny Trevathan is in a class by himself on UK’s roster. Junior Ronnie Sneed continues to improve as he takes on the unenviable task of replacing Micah Johnson, but it really hasn’t been enough. Chris White of MSU takes a backseat to no one and has had a monster year on his own. The Bulldogs face a similar conundrum to the Cats in that he’s far and away better than any of his supporting cast. Close call here, but Danny gets the edge for playing this well in a cast.

The Edge: KENTUCKY

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Kentucky’s Winston Guy and Mychal Bailey have the athleticism to be the top pair of safeties in the SEC, but they can’t stop making silly mistakes that allow the offense to pickup first down after first down. The corners are a little banged up right now and the unit as a whole has really struggled to pick off the opponents when given the chance. Mississippi State can throw a myriad of defensive backs at you and does so from a lot of different looks. Their Safety tandem might be one of the best groups of young players in the country and they contribute heavily in the running game. But then when you factor in production, MSU has allowed opponents to throw for over 300 more yards than UK has. Tough call, but this one goes to the Bulldogs because opponents don’t have to throw as much against Kentucky. They run all over them.

The Edge: MISSISSIPPI STATE

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kentucky and Mississippi State’s Kickers, kick returners and punt returners all have very similar numbers. Punt coverage is going to hand this one over to the Bulldogs as they’re allowing only 1.9 yards per return, and Kentucky is allowing 24.9 yards per return.

The Edge: MISSISSIPPI STATE

COACHING

This one’s kind of tough. Dan Mullen is 1-0 against Kentucky as a head coach and his team ran all over a good Kentucky defense last year on the way to a career day for Anthony Dixon. He managed to beat Florida in Gainesville earlier this season as well. Joker pulled off a big upset over South Carolina, but otherwise has won the games Kentucky was favored in and lost the ones they weren’t. Mullen’s ability to go into the swamp and beat a Florida team that humiliated the Wildcats is pretty impressive.

The Edge: MISSISSIPPI STATE

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