GAME 7
OCTOBER 16, 2010 6:00 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (4-1)
COMMONWEALTH STADIUM – Lexington, KY
TV – ESPN 2
SERIES HISTORY:
South Carolina leads 14-6-1
RECENT MEETINGS:
USC 28 UK 26
2008: USC 24 UK 17
2007: USC 38 UK 23
2006: USC 24 UK 17
2005: USC 44 UK 16
During the preseason, several Kentucky sites circled this game on the calendar as a game Kentucky needed to win if they are to contend in the SEC. And for the first part of the season, the anticipation built and it seemed to be a game Kentucky could take. But the last three weeks have seen a reversal of fortunes for both teams. Kentucky is on a three game tailspin, with fan frustration mounting with every loss. South Carolina is on top of the world, toppling what I perceived as the previously unbeatable Alabama Crimson Tide by 14 points.
Another thing to note about this game are the streaks. Seve Spurrier is a perfect 17-0 against Kentucky while the Gamecocks have now reeled off 10 straight wins. I have to admit, the losing streak is especially frustrating as Spurrier’s Gamecocks are 35-28 through his first five seasons as a Cock. That is just two games better than Kentucky over that time period. So in other words, there is no excuse for a 10 game losing streak. It’s an important game for Joker.
OFFENSE
It only seems that Stephen Garcia has been Spurrier’s QB/Whipping boy for the past eight season, but in his senior season, Garcia has finally put it together and is in the top top in QB efficiency for the NCAA. Garcia is not a gunslinger, but when on, he makes smart passes and does all the things needed to win. Of course, when not on, he can be self destructive. Fortunately for South Carolina, the “off” Garcia has not emerged this season and Garcia has been steady. His stats are not overly impressive, with 944 yards passing through 5 games and he had 8 TD’s versus 3 INT’s. The one impressive stat is the fact he is completing 72.3% of his passes this season, compared to 55.3% for last season. If you need any proof of Garcia’s ability to win a game, rather than just manage it … just look at last weeks 17-20 performance vs Alabama with 3 TD’s. Freshman QB Connor Shaw appears to be their version of the “Wild Cock” QB and has seen action in three games this year.
Freshman Marcus Lattimore is possibly the best freshman RB in the country and he is the center piece of a South Carolina ground attack that is averaging 156.8 a game. Lattimore is a workhorse type of back that gets better as the game progresses and can move the pile. Lattimore has 459 yards and 8 rushing TD’s on the season and he has just one game with over 100 yards (182 vs Georgia). Lattimore’s longest run is for 28 yards and he is averaging a little over four yars a game. True, it does not sound like Lattimore’s stats are overly impressive, but he has the knack for converting the big run. After Lattimore, Stephen Garcia is the next leading rusher with 94 yards on 42 carries. Brian Maddox is a 5’11, 229 pound senior that is averaging 5.5 yards a carry with one TD this season. He is effective when he gets the ball, but that is not more than a handful of carries a game. QB Connor Shaw is averaging 5 yards a carry on 13 carries.
Last year, Ashlon Jeffery used the Kentucky game as his coming out party with two touchdown. He has not let up since then and is having a sensational season with 34 receptions for 625 yards and 4 TD’s. He’s a definite deep threat averaging 18.2 yards a catch and in his five games, has had long catches of 46, 40, 28, 69, and 45 yards. He was shut out of the end zone the first three games, yet has scored twice the last two games. Jeffery is accounting for 57% of the receiving stats for South Carolina for the season. Tori Gurley is more of a possession receiver with 15 catches for 145 yards. Freshman WR Ace Sanders is averaging 10 yards a catch for 8 caches and Lattimore has similar receiving stats out of the backfield. It’s obvious that the plan is to double team Jeffery and not let the other guys beat you.
DEFENSE
Coming into the season, the Gamecock defense was considered the strong part of the team, and they have played well, averaging just 18.8 points a game. he last two foes, Auburn and Alabama have put up 27 and 21 points respectively, so this is a team that Kentucky can sore in the 20’s on.
The Gamecocks have a pretty experienced defensive line with Seniors Devin Taylor and Ladi Ajiboye manning the line. Taylor is having a solid year with 3.5 sacks and 19 tackles on the season. Junior Melvin Ingram also has 3.5 sacks. There are some guys on the line that can bring the pressure on Hartline, but no real dominating player. You would think the SC line is slightly better than Kentucky’s but this is a battle that can be won. Josh Dickerson and Rodney Paulk are the two NB names to be concerned about. Dickerson will find a way to be around the ball, with 27 tackles on the season. Paulk has 2.5 sacks on the season. All in all, it is a pretty young defensive backfield with just one senior, Chris Culliver, getting lots of play. Devonte Hollomon and Stephon Gilmore are the leading tacklers on this team and Gilmore does have an 80 yard INT return this season.
Looking at the defense as a whole, it is not an especially ball-hawking D, with just 7 turnovers in 5 games. They do get to the QB a good bit, however, so once again, Kentucky’s offensive line may be the key to to game. Don’t get me wrong. this is a solid, well coached, defense, but there is no Danny Trevathan on this team. That’s not a knock on the ‘Cocks. The teams runs efficiently as a whole rather than on the sum of its individual parts.
ANALYSIS
Vegas has made South Carolina a five point favorite. So the nation is catching on that Kentucky is a team that can play with anyone in the SEC, sans Florida. Kentucky very easily could be 5-1 on the season, but have not gotten a break in the last three games. I will touch on this in just a bit.
Missing Derrick Locke, will hurt. But I have faith in Donald Russell and Raymond Sanders if Locke can not play. Sander could have his own coming out party in this game like Jeffery did last season. Regardless, for Kentucky to win, I think they need to finally cut Randall Cobb loose and have a steady diet of the Wildcobb offense. Cobb and Sanders are the x-factors in the offense today. If Cobb can get at least double digit touches in the Wildcobb offense, he will break a long game or two. The Kentucky offense has been clicking lately, but the key is not to put yourself in an early hole.
For the season, South Carolina has outscored their opponents 100-38 in the first half. In the second half, they have outscored the other team 58-56 and have been outscored in the fourth quarter 34-24. After the last three weeks, Kentucky knows the importance of having a strong first half defensively as they have been in an early hole and the offense has been outstanding in fighting their way back. If Kentucky can keep this game close at half and can be within even 10 points, there is hope.
And now we come to pure luck. Kentucky has not gotten a single break in the past three games. And they have been lousy protecting the football. If Kentucky can hold on to the football and win the turnover war, this is a winnable game. There are several games in the Spurrier and the SC losing streak where if Kentucky had gotten jut one break, they would have won. Can Kentucky go out, protect the ball and make their own breaks in this game? This is a game where Kentucky has good matchups so an upset is not impossible.
So what happens? Well, this is a UK fansite. And I love the fact that I have South Carolina fans coming here to talk smack to me about Kentucky a week after the biggest win in their program’s history. I would think they would move on to Florida or Alabama to talk smack to, yet they prefer to talk smack to Kentucky. After several years of aiming for the top teams, the Gamecocks now have the target on their back and you wonder if they know how to respond.
You have to wonder how South Carolina will play on the road after reaching their highest point in the Steve Spurrier era and how much fight a clearly desperate Kentucky team will bring. I think that Kentucky has a very good shot at an upset on Saturday and you have to think they have a game where they get the breaks and bounces that have eluded them. Could this be it? My brain is telling me not to pick Kentucky in this one and I may lose credibility for going with my heart but these streaks have to end sometime. Why not now?: KENTUCKY 24 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
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