Kentucky Football Preview- Know Your Enemy: Auburn Tigers
By Paul Jordan
GAME 6
OCTOBER 9, 2010 7:30 PM
AUBURN TIGERS (5-0)
COMMONWEALTH STADIUM – Lexington, KY
TV – ESPN2
Series History
Auburn leads 24-6-1
RECENT MEETINGS
2009: UK 21 Auburn 14
2005: Auburn 49 UK 27
2004: Auburn 42 UK 10
It’s deja vu all over again. This weeks matchup against the Auburn Tigers has very similar scenarios to last years game for both teams. And hopefully Joker Phillip’s Wildcats can respond in the same way that last years Wildcats did to put an upside on a season gone awry.
Last year, Kentucky stumbled into the game at Auburn on a three game losing streak, including an especially frustrating we-should-have-won-the-game-but-gave-it-away-to-South-Carolina-game. Kentucky comes into this game on a two game slide, and fresh off one of the most frustrating losses in recent memory. Like last year, Auburn has started out 5-0. Last year, they took a road trip to 2-2 Arkansas and came away a whipped team 44-23. If you are a Cat fan, you are looking for a repeat of both scenarios.
OFFENSE
Well, you can’t ignore the QB for Auburn. Cameron Newton, at 6’5, 250, is a beast with cat like quickness and he is one of the leading candidates for the Heisman Trophy. And yes, he is a dual threat QB that can beat you with his feet and his arms. Newton has passed for 928 yards on the season and has 12 TD’s against 4 INT. It’s easy to think that Newton just beats you with his legs, but he has a rocket for an arm and passed for 245 yards and 3 TD’s last week against Louisiana Monroe. The real strength of Newton is running with the ball. He is cat quick and strong as a moose. In other words, you can’t stop him. You can just hope to contain him. He has two games with over 170 yards rushing and has 474 yards rushing and 5 rushing TD’s on the season. If you want an accurate description of Newton, it would be Tim Tebow with speed … and that does not bode well for the Wildcats.
Aside from Newton, Auburn has a pretty legitimate ground game of its own. Onterio McCalebb has 336 yards rushing on the season and is averaging an eye opening 8 yards a carry with 2 TD’s on the ground. At 5’10 and 176, he is very elusive and tough to get a hand on to bring on. He has a 50 yard and a 35 yard run this season. If not for South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore, Auburn’s Michael Dyer would be the most hyped freshman running back. Sharing time with McCalebb, Dyer has 334 yards and 2 TD’s on the season and is averaging 4.8 yards a carry. He has the ability to hi t the holes and carry a defender or two with him as well. If that is not enough, Mario Fannin could get some carries too. He got 89 yards on 10 carries versus Louisiana Monroe last week — he had nine carries on the season prior to that. All in all, Auburn has the 8th ranked ground attack in the NCAA … good for 269 yards a game and 5.8 yards a carry. Be afraid. Be very afraid. Auburn also has 12 TD’s on the ground this season.
If the ground attack is not enough, the Tigers have some weapons through the air as well. Darvin Adams, at 6’3, is a dangerous receiver and has 16 catches for 284 yards. Adams is accustomed to making the big plays as well. he had 997 yards receiving and 10 TD’s last season. Terrell Zachery is also experienced as a senior and has 14 receptions for 218 yards. He pulled in a 78 yard TD pass last week. Adam and Zachery account for almost half the Tiger’s receptions. Emory Blake is next in yardage with 173 yards, but 94 of them came on one play next week. Fannin and TE Philip Lutzenlirchen also have 7 catches on the season to round out the most likely targets for Newton. Adams and Zachery are both big targets over 6’0, but you think that through the air is an area that the Tigers can be shutdown somewhat if you can take Adams away,
DEFENSE
Looking for a weakness in this Auburn Tiger armor? You found it. The offense gets all the attention, but keep in mind this is a team that gave up 26 points to Arkansas state and that the offense has had to survive shootouts in a couple of games this season. The pass defense is ranked dead last in the SEC and if you are thinking like I am, Kentucky has a chance if they come out with all guns blazing and utilize a healthy dose of Chris Matthews, La’Rod King, and Matt Roark. Kentucky has the luxury of three receivers that stand 6’4 or higher and this is a game where that matchup can be exploited.
The Tigers have a pretty big and and experienced line. LE Antoine Carter, simply put, is a beast. Nick Fairley is outshining his this season. So far, he has 11.5 tackles for a loss and an eye opening 12 hits on the QB. Protect Hartline from this guy. That said, redshirt freshman Nosa Eguae may be an area of weakness that the Wildcats can run at. He is the smallest lineman at 6’2 and 258. To set the record straight, Josh Bynes is not an area of o
pportunity. He is one of the SEC’s top linebackers and is closing in on 200 tackles in his career. He also has five interceptions in his career, which is an impressive number for a linebacker. Expect to see #17 around the ball all afternoon and he is a hard hitter. Despite the relative weakness of the defensive back’s numbers, this is an experienced starting corp and Auburn does feature three of their starters at 6’0 or higher.
OUTLOOK
It’s going to take close to a perfect game if Kentucky is to knock off the #8 Tigers. Stopping Cameron Newton is obviously going to be the key to this plan, and to be honest, I am more than a bit weary after true freshman Trey Burton made the Wildcats look ridiculous with five rushing TD’s just two weeks ago. That said, Cameron Newton will not be a surprise to the Wildcats and will not be unveiled as a secret weapon. If Joker wants to keep the heat off of himself and his staff, Kentucky will need to hold Newton to manageable numbers and make him beat them through the air.
And that is going to be pretty much the entire task for the Wildcat defense. Auburn boasts the 8th ranked rushing attack and the 72nd best passing attack. Pick your poison. It’s easier said than done to say that as no one has stopped the Auburn running game yet. Kentucky does have an opportunity to shut down Newton’s two main receiving threats and make Newton rely on his secondary targets. If that happens, expect Newton to run though, so UK’s front seven better be waiting.
The offense should be able to have a good day versus Auburn, but the big key will be preventing turnovers. To win, Kentucky needs to play a turnover free game and needs to create a couple of takeaways of their own. Seeing that Newton has four picks already, this is not out of the realm of possibility. UK needs to get Randall Cobb involved in the running game again and need to get his touches back up to where it should be. There can not be series where Randall Cobb “takes off” or is not involved in the play. Like I said earlier, I think that Kentucky has a special advantage in three big receivers. As we saw against Florida, Chris Matthews is a mismatch waiting to happen. Let’s come out with all guns blazing and throw, throw, throw, down the field. If Kentucky can stretch the field, there is no way, they score less than 28.
So who wins? Ugh. I am hard pressed to find a scenario where Kentucky can pull off the upset, although if we play the perfect game it is possible. That said, Auburn’s big strength happens to be our big weakness and when you have a situation like that, the strength usually wins. I hate to do this, but Auburn 31, Kentucky 23.
Keep following www.http://wildcatbluenation.com for the best in Kentucky basketball and football news, rumors, and opinions. By Kentucky fans for Kentucky fans