GAME 1
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
PAPA JOHN’S CARDINAL STADIUM, LOUISVILLE KY
SEPTEMBER 4, 2010 3:30PM
TV – ABC ONLINE: ESPN3.com
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 13-9
RECENT GAMES:
2009: UK 31-27
2008: UK 27-2
2007: UK 40-34
2006: UL 59-28
2005: UL 31-24
It’s a new era in both Kentucky and Louisville football as both teams debut new coaches. Joker Phillips has been a long time assistant at Kentucky and knows what this rivalry means to his team and his fanbase. Charlie Strong is a newbie to the rivalry as he comes to Louisville from the Florida Gators. The importance of this game is not lost on the head coaches.
Joker Philllips comes into the rivalry with heavy expectations as he inherits a team that has been to four straight bowl games and is looking for their fourth straight win over the hated Cardinals. Joker has built an air of excitement to the program and is currently winning the recruiting battle with Charlie Strong as Joker’s 2011 class is currently the 25th best in the nation. Joker has opened up Jefferson County in recruiting for the Wildcats and is forcing Charlie Strong to fight for his hometown recruits.
On the other side, not much is expected of Charlie Strong. After flirting with being a nationally elite team in football, the Cardinal program has been in a free fall, registering 6-6, 5-7, and 4-8 seasons after appearing in the BCS bowls. Strong has done a good job trying to rebuild the Cardinals in his short time at UL, but a 4-8 season may be considered a triumph. And the one thing that will make the Cardinal’s season? BEATING KENTUCKY.
Yes, the roles have changed in the last 3-4 season when Kentucky would make their season with a win over the Cardinals. Now, anything less than a total demolition of the Cards can be considered a disappointment for some Cat fans — the hatred is that much. With that in mind, let’s take a look at he Cardinals:
OFFENSE
Adam Froman returns at QB for Louisville and will be making his first start in the Kentucky/Louisville rivalry. Froman played in seven games last year and passed for 1,354 yards with 6 TD’s and 5 INT’s. Froman was hailed as a pro style QB as a JUCO transfer but really has not done that much to electrify the Cardinals passing game. Statistically, he is a little better passer than Hartline, but Hartline has the experience in this game and has much better tools. Froman completes about 60% of his passes but the key will be if he can stretch the field and get a couple of deep completions early.
The strength of Louisville’s offense would have to be their backfield of Victor Anderson and Bilal Powell. As of right now, it appears that Powell has won the starting position, but expect to see plenty of both players. I am surprised if Powell does get the start against UK though as he has only gotten 18 yards on 18 carries in two years versus UK. Last year was an anemic 2 yards on 12 carries. Powell has also seen his yards per carry average decrease every year at Louisville, trudging for just 3.6 yards a carry last year. I do not know if Anderson is not fully healthy, or is announcing Powell as a starter is a smokescreen, but if this is the case, Kentucky got a break. Anderson was dogged by injuries all season, but did manage to run for 110 yards versus Kentucky last season. Anderson also rushed for over 1000 yards as a freshman and if healthy, could be one of the top backs in the Big East and is averaging over five yards a carry for his career. He also has decent hands and should catch a couple of balls out of the backfield.
As I said earlier, Froman does not have a lot of tools to work with at WR. Doug Beaumont is the most experienced WR and had 38 catches for 465 yards last season. Beaumont has good hands but unfortunately does not have breakaway speed. If Froman can hit him deep, there is a good chance that he will be caught from behind. Beaumont has the unglamorous stat of 100 career receptions without a TD catch. Josh Chichester is another option at WR and had 202 yards receiving and 2 TD’s last year, although his speed is also a question as he saw time at TE last year. Little used Troy Pacsley (4 catches last year) appears to be the next best option at WR, but it should be noted he found the end zone four times in 12 receptions in 2008. TE Cameron Graham could see the most looks on Saturday as he will provide a solid target for Froman.
DEFENSE
I don’t know if it is a good thing or a bad thing, but the Cardinals return just four starters on defense. Big things are expected from DE William Savoy, Savoy had five sacks in just three starts last season. Malcom Tatum is the other DE starter, but he is not much of a threat to put pressure on Mike Hartline. Brandon Heath returns at weakside LB, but is nothing special. If you are looking for a darkhorse to emerge for the Cardinals, look at MLB Antwon Candy, who should put up numbers as a starter.
Johnny Patrick is the best DB for the Cards but he will have his hands full with Randall Cobb. The Cardinals will have three new starters in the secondary, but at least Anthony Connor has some experience. If you are looking for a darkhorse here, look no further than Darius Ashley. Ashley was the second leader rusher on the Cardinals, but the Cardinals hope his versatility will add some much needed depth.
OUTLOOK
Louisville has a lot of hope for their offense this season but the lack of WR options has to be a concern. Fortunately for UL, Kentucky is pretty untested in the secondary and Winston Guy can’t cover everyone. I think that if Kentucky’s LB’s can keep Cameron Graham wrappe
d up, they should be able to minimize the passing game. Louisville does have a pretty good offensive line so look for plenty of Powell and Anderson and if they can establish a running game, Louisville can keep the game respectable. If Kentucky’s limits the running game and puts some pressure on Froman, it is going to be a long day. Even though UK’s DB’s are untested as well, the WR corp for UL does not concern me. beaumont will get some yards, but look for Froman to finish with 150 yards or so.
Now the UK offense versus the Card’s defense can be a tremendous mismatch. UK has a superior OL and they should be able to rip holes in the Cardinal’s DL all day long. Look for Derrick Locke to easily top the 100 yard mark. We have heard this for so many years, but Mike Hartline has to be able to throw the deep ball and I think he has the matchups to have a very good game. We know Cobb will get his numbers but look for Chris Matthews to get 4-5 catches and finish with 75 yards or so. If Hartline and Matthews can establish some consistency, this can be a top SEC passing game.
Unfortunately for competition sakes, Louisville is not a very good team. The talent they had last year was mismanaged and now the cupboard is pretty bare for Charlie Strong. As Kyle made note of yesterday, Kentucky has the edge in most positional matchups. A talent discrepancy like that can only lead to a win on the scoreboard for the boys in Bllue. i think the stats will be a lot more dominating than the score, but look for Kentucky to win 27-14.
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