I think we all know that there’s a certain streak alive here and as much as I want to overlook that while breaking down this game, it has to come into play some.
This will be a match up of two different teams both with first year head coaches that want to show they have what it takes to win in the SEC. This will be the final regular season game for both teams with Tennessee hosting Kentucky. UT will be coming into this contest a week after traveling to in-state rival Vanderbilt, while UK will be coming in off of their bye week. Both teams have been placed to finish in the lower half of the SEC by almost every publication putting out a preseason ranking, and while Kentucky is used to being underestimated from the get-go, this is new territory for Tennessee. It would be hard to bring up UT without addressing the coaching situation, and I won’t spend too much time on it here. Lane Kiffin and his hot wife decided they wanted to bolt from Knoxville in the middle of the night to take over a school that was about to be put on probation. Tennessee apparently looked at every conceivable option before hiring former Louisiana Tech head coach Derek Dooley. Then came the defection of players to the NFL draft, recruits backing out of commitments, current players transferring, and the always-reliable Knoxville police. It looks as though Dooley plans on running a squeaky clean program and has recently dismissed and suspended players caught making trouble. If there are any players left on the roster by the time Kentucky rolls into town, the Vols will play the Wildcats in the confines of Neyland Stadium.
Kentucky will lose if…..
The Wildcats come to the game unprepared or with a mental block. There isn’t a player on the UK roster that was alive the last time Kentucky beat Tennessee, and coming into this game expecting to lose will surely make it a long day for the Cats. The Volunteers have been a balanced team for years, and will probably keep a balanced offensive scheme this year despite the staff change. Quarterback Mat Sims is no Peyton Manning, but he has the size, accuracy and pedigree to be a good signal caller. The Volunteer receivers will be one of the team strengths, featuring a senior trio of Gerald Parker, Denarius Moore and tight end Luke Stocker. If the Kentucky defensive backs don’t show up, the Vols could have a record day through the air with this trio. The Vols typically do not employ a running back-by-committee approach and favor a feature back with one or two complementary options to spell the starter. It looks like sophomore David Oku or Junior Tauren Poole will be the top candidates and both are capable of giving the Kentucky defense headaches. The offensive line will be small but fast and if Kentucky’s defensive line can’t keep the blockers off of the linebackers, the rushing game could fuel Tennessee to the win. Defensively, the Vols will have loads of talent from tackle to Safety and will feature several talented young players. Safety Janzen Jackson returns for his sophomore season to fill the enormous shoes left by Eric Berry’s departure, and he has the ability to take any errant pass back for a touchdown at any time. If Kentucky can’t keep the Tennessee defense honest, expect the Vols to run away with this one. Again.
Why Kentucky will win…..
Enough is enough. The Vols escaped by the skin of Lane Kiffins snarling teeth last year in overtime and lost a ton of talent off of that squad that was just average per Tennessee’s standards. Recently, projected starter at defensive tackle Marlon Walls and reserve linebacker Greg King, both sophomores, were suspended indefinitely for a bar fight in Knoxville. Returning starting safety Darren Myles was kicked off of the team and prized recruit Da’Rick Rogers status is unknown at this time (he will undoubtedly be reprimanded). The defense will be replacing both starting defensive tackles, from last year’s team and losing Walls hurts. The Kentucky running game should be able to slice up the middle of a fragile and small defensive front-7 for big gains. The UK O-Line will have a significant size advantage over the UT D-Line (heaviest DE weighs only 262 pounds) and should be able to control the line of scrimmage on rushing and passing plays. The Volunteer defensive backs will be young and inexperienced, and the Wildcat QB should have a couple of opportunities for big plays when they bite on play-fakes. The Kentucky receivers will be able to take advantage of the inexperience in the defensive backfield and I would be shocked if Alcoa native Randall Cobb doesn’t have a career day against the team he grew up cheering for, but that overlooked him. The Vols will not return a single starter on their offensive line and will likely be forced into starting 1-2 true freshmen this year. The unit will consist of only three players weighing in at 300 pounds or more, and only two players that have earned a varsity letter. The UT Running backs will be talented, but losing Bryce Brown (who’s not listed anywhere in the 2010 media guide) was a real blow. While Matt Sims has tons of potential at QB, he is as unproven as any freshman. If he were that talented, a QB needy Louisville would have fought harder to keep him. Kentucky’s defense will likely pin their ears back and attack the Tennessee offense all night hoping to cause mistakes. With Tennessee returning only four offensive starters and six defensive starters, this roster will have a lot of growing up to do to even have a chance to finish .500 this season. Returning only 47 lettermen total, depth is likely to be an issue as well. If Tennessee players can’t keep from getting arrested and suspended, there may not even be a game at all. Overall, I think Kentucky has too much talent and depth this year to lose to the reeling Vols. Their roster is depleted, their talent level is WAY down, and they’ll be breaking in a new coach for the second year in a row. It’s hard to count out a prestigious program, but I believe this is the year the streak comes to an end.
For a breakdown of the other 2010 games, go HERE
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