*”Joker’ gonna beat you guys by this much”*
October 30 – @ Mississippi State
For whatever reason, Kentucky seems to struggle with Mississippi State almost every season, despite the fact that the Bulldogs have only had one .500 or better season (2007) this decade. Last season, Bulldog Running back Anthony Dixon slashed through the Wildcat defense on his way to a staggering 252 rushing yards on the day. As a team, MSU managed to pile up 348 net rushing yards on their way to ruining Kentucky’s Halloween homecoming. However, with Dixon’s graduation, the Bulldogs will be returning only 1 net yard of that production to the field this October. The Wildcats did their part to lose the game too and were plagued by mistakes as freshman QB Morgan Newton took three sacks and threw a pick, and veterans Randall Cobb and Alfonso Smith lost a fumble apiece.
This season, the Bulldog offense will likely begin to mold towards the spread attack that coach Dan Mullen ran as the Offensive Coordinator at Florida. This means less of the power running game that abused the Wildcat defense in 2009, and more of a balanced attack. The Wildcats will be venturing down to Starkville after a three game home stand that will inevitably take quite a bit out of the Cats. MSU will have a three game stretch including Houston and UAB at home, with a road trip to Florida in between before facing the Cats in Lexington.
Kentucky will lose if…..
The Bulldogs are able to dominate the game on the ground again this year. Despite the fact that Micah Johnson didn’t play much in this game due to injury and Trevard Lindley was also not a participant, it’s completely unacceptable to give up the kind of numbers the UK defense allowed to a team like Mississippi State. If the Bulldogs experienced Offensive line buries the smaller UK D-Line, the Running backs might be in for another big day. Hopefully Steve Brown doesn’t try to stick with the nickel defense for the entire game this year (unless MSU actually attempts to throw). The Wildcats went through the entire game last year in the nickel despite a mediocre Tyson Lee only attempting 17 passes the whole game. If the coaching staff gets stubborn this year and refuses to adapt to the Bulldog game plan, Kentucky might not have the athletes to beat them. The Mississippi State defensive unit is big up front and at linebacker, so the Wildcats will probably struggle to rack up yardage on the ground against the Bulldogs. If Kentucky abandons the run completely though, Mississippi State can cut sack artist Pernell McPhee loose to terrorize the UK signal caller. The Safeties aren’t scared to come up and support the run, but the entire defensive backfield has shown a knack for picking off errant passes. DBs Charles Mitchell, Johnthan Banks and Corey Broomfield managed to pick off 14 passes last year and returned those for 394 yards. If The Wildcats can’t keep from turning the ball over, they probably won’t be able to keep up.
Why Kentucky will win…..
The Bulldogs were able to beat the Cats last year because of turnovers and Anthony Dixon. Well, Dixon will certainly not be part of the equation this season, and minimizing the turnovers should be much easier with a more veteran group of skill players. The Kentucky defense will be eager to redeem themselves after their performance last year. While Corey Peters and Sam Maxwell will be hard to replace, not having Trevard Lindley and a healthy Micah Johnson took the two best defenders off the field. Barring injury, this will be one of the fastest defenses Kentucky has ever fielded and their ability to cover the field from sideline to sideline will be instrumental in stopping the MSU running attack. The Bulldogs don’t field a very intimidating passing game and the Kentucky defensive backs should have another big day picking off passes. It will be important to keep sophomore Wide Receiver Chad Bumphis in check though, as he is probably the most talented offensive player for MSU. The D-Line should have a field day rushing the QB against what should be one of the slowest O-Lines in the SEC. Offensively, the Cats will probably struggle to run the ball at first because of the size of the Bulldog’s front seven. But, the bigger they are the faster they wear down, and the MSU front seven will have a hard time keeping up with the speedy skill players Kentucky will throw at them. The QB should have an easy time throwing short passes and screens to open the field up for Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews to take on the smaller defensive backs one on one. The tight ends and receivers should have an easy time over the middle of the field against the slower MSU linebackers. The UK QB should avoid taking too many shots down field where the MSU defensive backfield can pick them off. Overall, Kentucky will field a more athletic team than the Bulldogs this year and should be able to pull off the win. If the Wildcats can stop the MSU running game and establish their own late in the contest, Kentucky should win decisively.
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