by Paul Jordan
Here we sit, less than two months until the coaches put an end on the 2010 recruiting class and there are still two big targets remain, uncommitted, that have both Kentucky and Florida in their list of schools they are looking at. The pair, of course is Brandon Knight from south Florida and C.J. Leslie of North Carolina. Both are top talents in their class and both have NBA aspirations. The question of course on both players minds is:
“Which coach will best prepare me for the NBA?”
I decided to look back at the past five years and the coaches success in sending players to “the show” and the success those players have had.
2005
David Lee, Florida – Lee came to the Gators as a McDonald’s All American and played all four years for Billy Donovan. Lee was a hard nosed power forward for the Gators who averaged 13.6 points and 9.0 rebounds his senior season. He was drafted by the Knicks with the last pick of the first round in the 2005 NBA Draft and he has blossomed into a bonafide star for the Knicks at center, averaging 20.3 points and 9 boards a game. Lee made his first All Star game appearance this year.
2006
Rodney Carney, Memphis – Carney came to Calipari at Memphis as one of the top players from the state of Indiana. Under Calipari’s tutelage, he bacame a nice four year player for the Tigers as a SF and averaged 17.2 points and 4.3 rebounds a game. Carney was picked in the first round of the NBA Draft by the Bulls with the 16th pick and traded to the 76ers. Carney is back with Philadelphia after spending last season with the Timberwolves. Carney is just averaging 11.9 minutes and 4.4 points a game this season.
Shawne Williams, Memphis – Williams was a top 20 prospect after his junior year in high school and did not play his senior year. He played just one season for Calipari at Memphis, averaging 13.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Williams was drafted #17 overall by the Indiana Pacers and unfortunately his NBA career never took off. He was arrested on a marijuana charge in 2007 and on another drug charge earlier this season, after which he was promptly cut by the Nets and he is now awaiting trial.
Darius Washington Jr, Memphis – He should be mentioned here as he was one of the top high school players in HS and played two years for Calipari at Memphis. Under his time at Memphis, he was one of the top point guards in the country. He left Memphis averaging 14.4 points and 3.5 assists. After his sophomore season, he entered the NBA Draft (against the advice of most draft experts) and went undrafted. He failed to latch on as a free agent that year and went off to play in Europe. He did join the Spurs for a drink of water during the 2007-2008 season but is currently out of the NBA.
2007
Al Horford, Florida – Horford was a four star recruit out of high school and had the fortune of being part of one of the best recruiting classes in a long time. While at Florida, Horford won two national titles for the Gators. Horford did not put up huge numbers at UF (10.3 points career, 7.9 rebounds) but his game where he held Greg Oden to just 7 points created a lot of NBA buzz. Horford was drafted number three overall in the NBA Draft by the Atlanta Hawks. Horford has turned into a very nice center for the Hawks and is averaging 14.1 points and 9.4 rebounds this season.
Corey Brewer, Florida – Brewer was a McDonald’s All American out of the state of Tennessee and game to the Gators boasting a senior year in high school where he averaged 29.4 points and 12.8 rebounds. While at Florida, he developed into a very effective small forward and was a key part of UF’s two national titles and recorded the first triple double in the history of Gator basketball. He averaged 13.2 points and 4.7 boards a game his last season at UF. Brewer was picked number seven overall in the NBA Draft by Minnesota. After missing most of last season with an injury, Brewer is having a nice year for the T-Wolves, averaging 13.3 points and 3.7 rebounds.
Joakim Noah, Florida – Noah came to the Gators off a state championship season in HS where he averaged 24 points and 12 rebounds. Hiss tock really rose at Florida during his sophomore season and some services considered him the top college prospect. He stayed for his Junior season under Donovan and he averaged 12.4 points and 8.4 rebounds in just 26 minutes a game. Noah was drafted 9th overall by the Chicago Bulls and is having his best season for the Bulls this year, averaging a double double with 10.7 points and 11.38 boards a game.
Chris Richard, Florida – Richard came to the Gators as Florida’s “Mr Basketball” and a Top 50 prospect according to rivals. Due to the glut of talent on this team, Richard never cracked the starting lineup for the Gators, but was the key “sixth man” for the Gator’s title runs. Over his career at UF, he averaged 4.9 points and 3.2 rebounds a game for his career. That was enough for the Minnesota Timberwolves to select him with the 11th pick of the second round. Richard played a year for the T-wolves and was out of the league last year. This season, he was reunited with Noah at the Bulls and is averaging 2.1 points and 2.9 rebounds in 10 games this season.
Taurean Green, Florida – Green was one of the top HS players in the state of Florida and was a key contributor to UF’s NCAA titles. Over his last two seasons as a Gator, he averaged 13.3 points and 2.6 rebounds per game. Green was the fifth Gator taken in the 2007 NBA and was selected 22nd in the second round by the Portland Trailblazers. Green’s success at Florida did not equate to NBA success as he played in 17 games over two season for Portland and Denver averaging just four minutes and 1.6 points a game. Green is currently playing overseas in the Greek pro leagues.
2008
Derrick Rose, Memphis – Rose was a McDonald’s All American and one of the top five players coming out of high school when he signed with John Calipari’s Memphis Tigers. Rose thrived in Calipari’s DDMO and started all 40 games, leading the Tigers to the NCAA Title Game. For the season, Rose averaged 14.9 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 boards a game. Rose was selected as the number one player overall by the Chicago Bulls. Rose became a bonafide superstar in just his first season and won the NBA Rookie of the Year Award. This season, he has improved his numbers, upping his scoring to 20.36 points and 5.73 assists per game.
Marressee Spreights, Florida – Spreights was the stuff that legends were made of as he had his number retired at Admiral Farragut Academy after just one season. He averaged just 4.7 points his first season at Florida and made great strides his second season, averaging 14.5 points and 8 rebounds per game. This was enough to
convice Spreights he was ready for the NBA and he was selected at number 16 in the first round by the Philadelphia 76ers. Spreights has actually gotten a decent amount of playing time for the Sixers and is averaging 16 minutes a game for his career with 7.9 points and 3.8 boards.
Joey Dorsey, Memphis – Dorsey was a four year player for the Tigers who is best remembered as calling out Ohio State’s Greg Oden before a big game and then failing horribly to back up his smack. While never a big scorer for the Tigers, he was a pretty consistent performer and averaged 6.9 points and 9.5 rebounds a game for the Tigers his senior season. He was drafted by the Portland Trailblazers with the third pick of the second round. Dorsey was promptly traded to the Houston Rockets where he played just 10 games in two seasons. He was recently traded again to the Sacramento Kings where he is averaging 1.83 points and 2.67 rebounds in eight minutes a game.
Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis – Douglas-Roberts was considered one of the top HS prospects when he signed with Memphis where he promptly became a key figure in Memphis’s ascent to college basketball’s elite. He was an All American after his junior season and averaged 18 points and 4 rebounds a game. He was selected by the New Jersey Nets with the 10th pick of the second round. Douglas-Roberts has seen his playing time jump dramatically his second season and he seems to be making the most of it, averaging 10.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.
2009
Tyreke Evans, Memphis – Evans was already drawing comparisons to Tracy McGrady by his sophomore year in high school and averaged 32.1 points a game his senior season and was a McDonald’s All American. Evans was moved to point guard by Calipari early in his freshman season and Evans responded nicely, averaging 17.1 points, 3.8 assists, and 5.3 rebounds a game. Evans mastered leading Calipari’s DDMO and in the process, was selected number four overall in the NBA Draft by the Sacramento Kings. Tyreke is excelling in the show and is a favorite to be Calipari’s second straight NBA Rookie of the Year as Evans is averaging 20.1 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.0 rebounds a game.
Nick Calathes, Florida – Calathes came to the Gators as a five star recruit and one of the top high school players and he promptly made his impact on the Gators averaging 16.2 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.3 boards a game. After his sophomore season, Calathes made the decision to bolt the Gators for Greece. Despite his announcement that he would be headed overseas, he was still drafted 15th in the second round by the Minnesota Timberwolves. In all fairness, Calathes was projected as a late first rounder/early second rounder before making the decision to play in the Greek leagues.
Robert Dozier, Memphis – Dozier came to Calipari at Memphis as a consensus top 100 high school recruit and turned out to be a very nice four year player for the Tigers. His senior season, he averaged 12.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. In the NBA Draft, he was the equivalent of “Mr Irrelavant” as he was the 30th player selected in the second round by the Miami Heat. A NBA career was not in the cards for Dozier as he ended up playing overseas in the Greek league.
Looking at those players, you would it is pretty even between Calipari and Donovan over the last five seasons. Donovan has had eight players drafted for an average position of 25th overall, Calipari had had seven players drafted for an average draft position of 24th. Donovan has had five first round picks, Calipari has had four. The one advantage Calipari has is that the odds are good that he has coached the last two rookies of the year, if Evans gets the honor.
However if you take into account what will probably happen this year, Calipari will take a distinctive edge as the coach that sends more players to the NBA, and the overall position they are taken. I used the following projections from http://www.draftexpress.com to project the 2010 NBA draft:
2010
1. John Wall, Kentucky – Nets
3. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky – Warriors
10. Patrick Patterson, Kentucky – Clippers
A look at the 2011 draft shows Calipari extending his lead in the average position of his players drafted. Granted, this is a lot of conjecture.
2011
22. Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky
53. Chandler Parsons, Florida
So you can see that Calipari has four player on his current rosters that he is expected to send to the first round of the NBA draft and Donovan has just one player he is sending to the draft, as a second rounder. The 2011 mock draft may not even matter in this argument as C.J. Leslie is already projected as the 6th pick in 2011 and Knight the 7th, regardless of which college team they choose.
When you look at the number though, you see that Calipari has the edge of consistently preparing players for the NBA. Donovan’s number are taken from just the one draft and recruiting class really. So to sum up this rather long argument, you would see the numbers indicate that Calipari has done a better job at preparing his players for the NBA.
Come on down, Brandon, C.J., Marquis, Quincy, and Michael. We’re waiting….
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