by Paul Jordan
GAME 31: 3/7/2010
12 PM – RUPP ARENA – LEXINGTON, KY
FLORIDA GATORS (20-10) (9-6)
TV – CBS
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 87-32
RECENT MEETINGS:
1/12/2010 – KENTUCKY 89 FLORIDA 77
3/7/2009 – FLORIDA 60 KENTUCKY 53
2/10/2009 – KENTUCKY 68 FLORIDA 65
3/9/2008 – KENTUCKY 75 FLORIDA 70
1/19/2008 – FLORIDA 81 KENTUCKY 70
Before the first Kentucky-Florida game, I asked if it was too early for the game to be a must win for the Gators. I said that while it was not a must win, it was certainly close for the Gators. Well, make no mistake. this is a must win game for Billy Donovan and his Gators as they find themselves on the outside bubble of the NCAA looking in for the third season in a row. The last two seasons this final Kentucky/Florida game has been essentially a play in game for the NCAA Tournament. Not so this year for UK, as they have locked down a number one seed in the big Dance. However it is Senior Day. And there are some big recruits watching that may be deciding between Kentucky and Florida. Plus Kentucky really wants to go 4-1 against the Gators after suffering a 0-7 streak.
THE STARTERS
G- ERVING WALKER, SO, 5’8, 171 — 12.7 ppg, 3.1 reb, 5 assists
G- KENNY BOYNTON, FR , 6’2, 183 — 13.5 ppg, 2.7 reb, 2.7 assists
F – CHANDLER PARSONS, JR, 6’9, 215 — 12.0 ppg, 6.8 reb, 2.5 assists
F- ALEX TYUS, JR, 6’8, 220 — 11.8 ppg, 7.0 reb, 0.4 assists
C – VERNON MACKLIN , JR, 6’10, 240 — 10.7 ppg, 5.6 reb, 0.8 assists
Erving Walker is the quintessential New York guard, full of confidence and skills. He is averaging 5 assists a game and has a A/TO ratio of 2.0. It’s amazing he is not a turnover machine as he is just 5’8 and seems to play out of control at times, but that is part of his fearless style. For his size, Walker is a good rebounder as well. He loves to shoot from beyond the 3-point line, but his shooting percentage numbers have gone down drastically this year from last year (43.4% to 34.8 regular, 41.9% to 35. 3-point). Regardless, he can be a weapon from past the 3-point line. Walker is excellent at driving to the basket and drawing a foul. Some Gator fans still swear that Kenny Boynton is better than John Wall, but his shooting percentage is a big difference. He is hitting just 36.8% of his FG attempts and 27.4% of his 3-point attempts. That does not stop him from shooting … a lot and so far this season, he has just six games where he has hit 50% of his shots. Boynton has launched 215 3-point attempts on the season, so he is fearless. Ray Shipman plays the G/F position but does not offer much in scoring (2.5) or rebounding (1.6) and has a bad A/T ratio and only 3 made 3-pointers. The infamous Nimrod Tishman (they call him Rod — how cute) and Kyle McClanahan are the other guards and only play in blowouts.
I have to give credit where credit is due and the smarted move that Billy Donovan has made this year is benching Dan Werner and moving Chandler Parsons into the starting lineup. You can argue that Parson has been Florida’s MVP the second part of the season. Parsons is big (6’9) and has point guard skills. He was a HS PG at 6’1 until he had a very late growth spurt. He has three double doubles since the Kentucky game and is capable of a very big scoring night. He also plays the point forward position well and has a very good A/TO ratio for a big man. And he is knocking down 36.7% of his treys. Alex Tyus is pretty steady as a 12 point, 6 board night a game guy. He does have four double doubles on the season and has a pretty good knack on the offensive board. He has been in somewhat of a scoring slump, getting into double digits just twice in his last eight games and has seen his shooting percentage go down nine points over last season. Vernon Macklin has good size, is a good offensive rebounder, and has the team’s best shooting percentage at 61.1%. Macklin has turned up his scoring lately with 2 20 point games in his last four efforts. It does look like Macklin simply does not get involved offensively in a lot of games as he has several games where he takes five shots or less. Dan Werner still gets a lot of minutes (27.8) despite losing his starting spot to Parsons and in his time on the court is probably the softest 6’8 player in the NCAA. He has blocked just four shots in his 834 minutes on the year and averages just 4.8 and 3.9 a game. He will hit the occasional three but most of the time you will not know he is on the court. Erik Murphy has seen his playing time dip to less than nine minutes a game and only averages 3.4 and 2.3.
OUTLOOK
For some reason, I am always nervous about the Gators. They have five starters that average double digits a game and you would think that is a scary thing … but most of the players average over 30 minutes a game. For that much time on the court, you would think they should be averaging around 15-16 points a game.
The Gator’s bench is non-existent. Human time sponge Dan Werner is getting more minutes than Vernon Macklin and that really makes no sense. And in the end, the Gator’s lack of depth is their down fall. The one thing I would do if I were Donovan is play Parsons at the point more. A 6’9 PG wou
ld give any team fits and Parsons has the skills.
UK has to defend against the 3-point shot. This is a team that can get hot but they rarely do. Part of the reason stems from the fact that Boynton makes just over 1-4 of his 3-point attempts and he at times, has the worst shot selection in the SEC. This kills UF because they do not have great rebounders to wrap up all these clankers.
In the end, it all boils down to the inside men … and the Gators have been an incredibly soft team the past three seasons. With this possible being both Cousins and Pattersons game at Rupp, I expect them to both have huge games and with Werner banging 28 minutes a game with them, its hard not to see a favorable UK outcome.
The Gators will hang around for a half … maybe. Look for the Cats to send UF to their third straight NIT with a 85-69 victory.
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