by Corey Price
The picture above was taken right after the conclusion of the 1985 national championship game and features probably the biggest Cinderella story in NCAA Tournament history, the Villanova Wildcats. That Villanova squad won the title game by 2 points over heavily favored Georgetown, and that wasn’t the first time Villanova had to gut out a close game. I did some research of the past 25 national champions because 25 is a nice number and it’s been 25 NCAA Tournaments since they expanded to 64 teams, so it makes sense. With each national champion, I counted how many “close games” they had. I considered a “close game” to be any game in which the team won or lost by single digits (between 1 and 9 points). Here is what I found with my research:
Most Games Decided By Single Digits
Villanova, 1985: 22 games
Arizona, 1997: 20 games
Indiana, 1987: 18 games
Louisville, 1986: 17 games
Syracuse, 2003: 17 games
Least Games Decided By Single Digits
Kentucky, 1996: 4 games
North Carolina, 1993: 8 games
Michigan State, 2000: 9 games
North Carolina, 2005: 10 games
Kansas, 2008: 10 games
North Carolina, 2009: 10 games
Most Wins Decided By Single Digits
Indiana, 1987: 16 wins
Villanova, 1985: 15 wins
Syracuse, 2003: 14 wins
Arizona, 1997: 12 wins
Louisville, 1986: 11 wins
UNLV, 1990: 11 wins
Kentucky, 1998: 11 wins
UConn, 1999: 11 wins
Least Wins Decided By Single Digits
Kentucky, 1996: 4 wins
Michigan State, 2000: 4 wins
North Carolina, 1993: 6 wins
Duke, 2001: 6 wins
North Carolina, 2009: 6 wins
Most Losses Decided By Single Digits
Arizona, 1997: 8 losses
Villanova, 1985: 7 losses
Louisville, 1986: 6 losses
Kansas, 1988: 6 losses
Florida, 2006: 6 losses
Least Losses Decided By Single Digits
Kentucky, 1996: 0 losses
UCLA, 1995: 1 loss
UConn, 1999: 1 loss
Indiana, 1987: 2 losses
Duke, 1992: 2 losses
North Carolina, 1993: 2 losses
Arkansas, 1994: 2 losses
Maryland, 2002: 2 losses
North Carolina, 2005: 2 losses
Florida, 2007: 2 losses
Highest Percentage Of Games Played Decided By Single Digits
Villanova, 1985: 62.9% of games played (22 of 35 games)
Arizona, 1997: 58.8% of games played (20 of 34 games)
Indiana, 1987: 52.9% of games played (18 of 34 games)
Syracuse, 2003: 48.6% of games played (17 of 35 games)
Louisville, 1986: 43.6% of games played (17 of 39 games)
Lowest Percentage Of Games Played Decided By Single Digits
Kentucky, 1996: 11.1% of games played (4 of 36 games)
North Carolina, 1993: 21.1% of games played (8 of 38 games)
Michigan State, 2000: 23.1% of games played (9 of 39 games)
Duke, 2001: 23.1% of games played (9 of 39 games)
Kansas, 2008: 25% of games played (10 of 40 games)
Highest Percentage Of Team’s Wins Decided By Single Digits
Villanova, 1985: 60% of team’s wins (15 of 25 wins)
Indiana, 1987: 53.3% of team’s wins (16 of 30 wins)
Arizona, 1997: 48% of team’s wins (12 of 25 wins)
Syracuse, 2003: 46.7% of team’s wins (14 of 30 wins)
Kansas, 1988: 37% of team’s wins (10 of 27 wins)
Lowest Percentage Of Team’s Wins Decided By Single Digits
Kentucky, 1996: 11.8% of team’s wins (4 of 34 wins)
Michigan State, 2000: 12.5% of team’s wins (4 of 32 wins)
Duke, 2001: 17.1% of team’s wins (6 of 35 wins)
North Carolina, 1993: 17.6% of team’s wins (6 of 34 wins)
North Carolina, 2009: 17.6% of team’s wins (6 of 34 wins)
Highest Percentage Of Team’s Losses Decided By Single Digits
Duke, 1992: 100% of team’s losses (2 of 2 losses)
Florida, 2006: 100% of team’s losses (6 of 6 losses)
Kansas, 2008: 100% of team’s losses (3 of 3 losses)
North Carolina, 2009: 100% of team’s losses (4 of 4 losses)
Arizona, 1997: 88.9% of team’s losses (8 of 9 losses)
Lowest Percentage Of Team’s Losses Decided By Single Digits
Kentucky, 1996: 0% of team’s losses (0 of 2 losses)
Florida, 2007: 40% of team’s losses (2 of 5 losses)
Indiana, 1987: 50% of team’s losses (2 of 4 losses)
North Carolina, 1993: 50% of team’s losses (2 of 4 losses)
UCLA, 1995: 50% of team’s losses (1 of 2 losses)
UConn, 1999: 50% of team’s losses (1 of 2 losses)
Maryland, 2002: 50% of team’s losses (2 of 4 losses)
UConn, 2004: 50% of team’s losses (3 of 6 losses)
North Carolina, 2005: 50% of team’s losses (2 of 4 losses)
Highest Winning Percentage In Games Decided By Single Digits
Kentucky, 1996: 1.000 (4-0)
UConn, 1999: .917 (11-1)
UCLA, 1995: .909 (10-1)
Indiana, 1987: .889 (16-2)
Duke, 1992: .833 (10-2)
Lowest Winning Percentage In Games Decided By Single Digits
Michigan State, 2000: .444 (4-5)
Florida, 2006: .571 (8-6)
Arizona, 1997: .600 (12-8)
North Carolina, 2009: .600 (6-4)
Michigan, 1989: .615 (8-5)
I then decided to take a look at this season’s national title contenders and see if I can narrow them down to 1 team based on certain trends from the past 25 national champions and their close games. I decided to only look at the teams in the AP Poll Top 10 from the most current release because 20 of the last 25 national champions were ranked in the Top 10 of the Final AP Poll. So, with that being said, I only looked at Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas State, Ohio State, Purdue, New Mexico, Villanova, and West Virginia. Then I looked at which teams fit each trend. Here are my findings:
- 14 of the last 25 national champions had at least 12 games decided by single digits
New Mexico: 14 games
Villanova: 12 games
West Virginia: 12 games
- 15 of the last 25 national champions won at least 9 games decided by single digits
New Mexico: 13 wins
Villanova: 10 wins
Kentucky: 9 wins
- 15 of the last 25 national champions lost at 3 least games decided by single digits
Ohio State: 5 losses
Purdue: 4 losses
West Virginia: 4 losses
Duke: 3 losses
Kansas State: 3 losses
- 17 of the last 25 national champions had at least 30% of their games played decided by single digits
New Mexico: 45.2% of games played
Villanova: 41.4% of games played
West Virginia: 41.4% of games played
Purdue: 37.9% of games played
Kentucky: 36.7% of games played
Ohio State: 35.5% of games played
Kansas State: 34.5% of games played
- 17 of the last 25 national champions had at least 25% of their team’s wins decided by single digits
New Mexico: 46.4% of team’s wins
Villanova: 41.7% of team’s wins
West Virginia: 34.8% of team’s wins
Kentucky: 32.1% of team’s wins
Kansas State: 29.2% of team’s wins
Purdue: 28% of team’s wins
Ohio State: 25% of team’s wins
- 16 of the last 25 national champions had more than 50% of their team’s loss
es decided by single digits
Kansas: 100% of team’s losses
Kentucky: 100% of team’s losses
Purdue: 100% of team’s losses
Ohio State: 71.4% of team’s losses
West Virginia: 66.7% of team’s losses
Duke: 60% of team’s losses
Kansas State: 60% of team’s losses
- 15 of the last 25 national champions won at least 70% of their games decided by single digits
New Mexico: .929
Syracuse: .857
Villanova: .833
Kentucky: .818
Kansas: .750
Kansas State: .700
Of the teams currently in the AP Poll Top 10, and according to the 7 above trends, 5 teams fell under 5 of the 7 trends. Here are the 5 teams:
Kansas State
Kentucky
New Mexico
Villanova
West Virginia
So, based on the trends, I can almost guarantee that this season’s national champion will be 1 of these 5 teams. And, of course, I would love Kentucky to be that team.
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