by Paul Jordan
GAME 27 – FEBRUARY 20, 2010
6PM – MEMORIAL GYM – NASHVILLE, TN
# 19 VANDERBILT COMMODORES (20-5) (9-2)
TV – ESPN
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 132-43
RECENT MEETINGS:
1/30/2010: KENTUCKY 85 VANDERBILT 72
2/17/2009: VANDERBILT 77 KENTUCKY 64
01/10/2009: KENTUCKY 70 VANDERBILT 60
2/12/2008: VANDERBILT 93 KENTUCKY 52
1/12/2008: KENTUCKY 79 VANDERBILT 73
2/25/2007: VANDERBILT 67 KENTUCKY 65
1/20/2007: VANDERBILT 72 KENTUCKY 67
It was only three weeks ago when we last did this. Kentucky was just coming off their loss to South Carolina and Vandy was the newly crowned prince of the SEC with a shiny 5-0 record. Well, Kentucky de-throned the Commodores and have not lost since. The Commodores had a curious loss to Georgia since the Kentucky game, yet they also finished off a sweep of the Tennessee Vols and despite going 4-2, the ‘Dores have risen from #23 to #19 in the polls.
Simply put, this is a do or die game for the Commodores as a loss to Kentucky will put them two games back with four games left and UK will hold the tiebreaker. A win for the “Dores and UK and Vandy are tied headed down the stretch.
THE STARTERS
G – JERMAINE BEAL – SR 6’3 205
14.7 ppg, 2.5 rebs, 2.9 assists
G – BRAD TINSLEY – SO 6’3 210
7.7 ppg, 2.7 reb, 3.2 assists
G/F – JEFFERY TAYLOR – SO 6’7 210
14.1 ppg, 5.4 reb, 1.9 assists
F – ANDRE WALKER – SO 6’7 220
5.9 ppg, 5.4 reb, 2.5 assists
C – A.J OGILVY – JR 6’11 250
13.9 ppg, 6.1 reb, 0.8 assists
Jermaine Beal is not as flashy as fellow SEC point guards John Wall and Devan Downey, nor does he get the attention, but he may be just as good. He sports an impressive 2.00 A/TO ratio and has picked up his scoring, with two 20 point games since facing UK . He is pretty accurate from the field at 45% from the field and 38.8 from 3-pointers. He is a terrific defensive player as well but has really not had a good game passing the ball the last few games. Tinsley now averages more assists per game than Beal, and has really picked it lately with 16 assists versus 6 turnovers the last three games. He has become a bit more of a scoring threat lately, averaging 10 a game since the Ketucky game. Freshman John Jenkins is dangerous off the bench, averaging 10.8 points a game and hitting 45.4% of his 3-pointers. About two thirds of his shot attempts are treys. Since Kentucky, he has not fared as well, missing two games and going 1-10 from beyond the arc recently. Lance Goulbourne is a 6’8 G/F from Brooklyn that only averages about 12 minutes a game but is a good 3-point shooter (33.3%) for his size. He also does well getting to the basket as evidenced by his 18 point game against LSU when Jenkins was out.
Jeffrey Taylor is a big G/F who is pretty solid defensively and has discovered his emerging offensive game this year. He is averaging 20 a game over his last three games and gets to the line a lot, where he is a good shooter. He is a good offensive rebounder and has a very solid offensive game and is shooting 53% from the field. He can present some matchup problems as he has good quickness. Andre Walker has emerged as a pretty solid rebounder and a very effective scorer when he shoots, but most of his shots are putbacks of missed shots. He has the tendency to block shots in bunches as he has games with 4 and 3 blocks. Walker is coming off a game where he fouled out in just 7 minutes. A.J. Ogilvy spent some time in Kevin Stallings doghouse earlier this year but is having a pretty decent year. . The biggest asset that Ogilvy brings is that he demands attention in the post which opens up the outside shooters. He is already ready to play against UK with averages of around 17 points and 8 boards a game. He is coming off a 27 point game against Ole Miss and has been somewhat a streak scorer at times. Backup center Festus Ezeli has one of the ugliest statlines in basketball. He has just one assist versus 24 turnovers. Ezeli is a good shotblocker averaging almost 2 blocks a game in just 13 minutes average. He is averaging 4 points and 3 rebounds a game.
OUTLOOK
Make no mistake about it, I am nervous about this game. Playing at Memorial has been an annual “House of Horrors” for the Wildcats, but John Calipari has proven to be a master exorcist as he has vanquished ghosts of season past as UK has broken skids against UNC, UL, Mississippi State, and Indiana at Bloomington. Kentucky has lost their last four games at Nashville and this will once again be a battle.
Expect to see lots of zone and aggressive 3-point shooting from Vandy in this game. In the previous game at Rupp, the officials went crazy and called 57 fouls. That interruption in the flow of the game actually benefited the Commodores as UK was never able to run. Vandy will look to need once again to disrupt Kentucky’s flow. One thing Vandy will have to do is control the rebounding and not let Cousins and Patterson dominate inside. Ogilvy was dominated by Cousins in the earlier meeting and I really don’t see any thing in Ogilvy’s game to suggest this game will be any different. If Patterson is more involved like he was against MSU, this will be a key area for UK.
I think Kentucky wins this game talent wise, 8 out of 10 games. The earlier game at Rupp was a a complete domination by the Cats and while it was not a 30 point blow out, Vandy never really threatened. Now we add the insane crowd to a floor and a court design that the three freshman have never played on before and we have the recipe for the second loss of the season. I kind of compare this game to a late season tournament game, where after 30 plus games of playing in smaller arenas, the players will play in a 50 to 60K seat stadium and they have to make all their adjustments to compensate. In the end, this basketball court is the same size and dimensions as the courts the Wildcats are 25-1 on … and UK will take a hard fought 78-75 victory.
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