by Paul Jordan
GAME 26 – 2/16/2010 9 PM
HUMPHREY COLISEUM – STARKVILLE, MS
TV – ESPN
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS 18-7 (6-4)
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 85-19
RECENT MEETINGS:
2/3/2009: MSU 66 KENTUCKY 57
1/15/2008: MSU 69 KENTUCKY 64
3/9/2007: MSU 84 KENTUCKY 82 (SEC TOURNEY)
1/13/2007: KENTUCKY 64 MSU 60
2/1/2006: KENTUCKY 81 MSU 66
Kentucky’s game against Mississippi State not only starts the homestretch run towards the end of the season, it offers a chance at redemption for Kentucky against a team they have struggled against recently. Kentucky has lost the last three games to Mississippi State and this time, they have to play against the Bulldogs on their home court. The Bulldogs have been inconsistent this season, starting out as a #25 team, but them getting promptly knocked out by Rider in a shocking upset. The Bulldogs were 12-2 in 2009, but just 6-5 in 2010. They are 5-2 against the SEC West, yet just 1-2 against the tougher SEC East. Never the less, the Bulldogs are tied for first in the SEC West so this technically would be a battle of division leaders. The Bulldogs are capable of playing very well against anyone as they have knocked off Ole Miss twice and have a very tough 3 point loss at Vandy on their resume.
THE STARTERS
G- RAVERN JOHNSON – JR 6’7 175
13.7 ppg, 3.4 reb, 0.6 assists
G – DEE BOST – SO 6’2 170
12 ppg, 4.6 reb, 5.2 assists
G – BARRY STEWART – SR 6’3 170
11.4 ppg, 3.2 reb, 2.4 assists
F – KODI AUGUSTUS – JR 6’8 220
8.8 ppg, 5.6 reb, 0.8 assists
F – JARVIS VARNADO – SR 6’9 230
SR 13.3, 11.3, 0.9 assists
Ravern Johnson will be a challenge to defend due to his length and his propensity to bomb away from down town. At 6’7, Johnson is more of a sharp shooter rather than a threat to constantly cut to the basket. Right at 60% of his shot attempts will be 3-point attempts, and he is knocking down the treys at a 43% clip. He is hitting over 50% of his total attempts, but he can be hot and cold. In his last four games, he scored 9 total points in two games and 38 points in the other two. Dee Bost is a fantastic passer and is among the SEC leaders in assists per game, but does tend to turn the ball over a good bit as well. He is hitting 34.1 of his three point attempts and is coming off a 32 point performance against Auburn in which he drained 7-12 treys. That games ended a bad slump where he hit just 5 treys in 7 games. As talented as Bost is with the ball, he can have some truly dreadful night like his 1 assist 6 turnover performance against Vandy. It should be noted the next game against Florida, he had 9 assists and 2 TO’s. Barry Stewart is yet another of Mississippi State’s trey happy bombers, as 56% of his shot attempts are three pointers. He is hitting them at a 36.4% clip and is about as consistent scorer you will see. He has scored 10-13 points in the last ten games for the Bulldogs. Stewart is also a good ball handler and defender.
Kodi Augustus is not merely content to play second fiddle to Jarvis Varnado. He had a public feud with Bulldog coach Stansbury over playing time earlier and was suspended two games for it. Since returning, he has been a pretty consistent rebounder but his scoring has been streaky and he is hitting just 38.6% of his FG attempts, unforgivable for a big man. On the other hand, he has made 21 treys and is hitting 33.9 of this 3-pointers. Augustus has hovered about the double digit average in scoring all season but has dipped the last few games. Finally we come to the one player that has single handedly dominated Kentucky the last couple of years, Jarvis Varnado. Varnado is a defensive game changer and a shot blocking genius. He comes into this game just 16 blocked shots from being the all time shot blocker in NCAA history and he has averaged around 5 blocks a game for the past three seasons. His scoring has progressed this season, up about 3 points a game from last season and Varnado is a tenacious rebounder. He has been on fire lately with five straight double doubles.
G Phil Turner offers a bit of scoring support off the bench as he is averaging 6 points a game and 4.9 rebounds. Turner is also a pretty good passer but is hitting just 33.6% of his FG attempts. F Romero Osby does not get a lot of playing time (12 minutes a game) mbut he is very productive with 5.1 points and 2.8 boards. He also offers an occasional 3-point threat hitting 41.4% (12-29) on the year. Unfortunately, this is about as deep as the Bulldog bench goes. No other player averages over 1.7 points a game.
OUTLOOK
I have to admit, this is going to be a tough game for UK as the Bulldog starters match up against the UK starters very well. UK’s guards will have their hands full trying to control the 3-point happy guard trio of Bost, Johnson, and Stewart. And I have to admit, I am drooling a bit at a possible matchup of Varnado vs Cousins. Regardless of whether Patterson or Cousins draw Varnado, Kentucky has something they have lacked against Varnado: two very capable forwards to wear him down. Consider that UK can bring in a fresh Daniel Orton to help wear Varnado down and you would get the feeling that this year’s matchup may be different.
Expect the first part of the game to be a classic, but Kentucky has a much deeper bench and really only seven players produce for Mississippi State. This game may be a game, Calipari goes deep into his bench and lets Ramon Harris be a “defensive specialist” wearing down the guards. Due to this game being in Starkville, I expect this to be Kentucky’s toughest test. When Mississippi State is clicking on all cylinders, they can be a dominating team. Kentucky will have to give their best defensive effort of the season, but in the end I like Kentucky’s chances. I think the only way MSU can keep up with UK’s depth is to have an insane night and hit like 13 3-pointers. Unfortunately, you live and die by the 3-pointer and tonight I take UK’s depth over the Bulldog’s sharpshooters. KENTUCKY 83 MISSISSIPPI STATE 78.
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